Raising Kaine - Recent Comments

These are all positive signs for Dems, but let's keep everything in perspective...

chspkheel — Wed, 14 May 2008 14:20:50 GMT

I agree, the outlook for the Republicans at the Congressional level is very bleak for the 2008 cycle. I worked for a great candidate in Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District during a Special Election in 2001/2002. By far, a much superior candidate to John Sullivan, but in the end we lost due to a General Election level turn-out in the Broken Arrow section of the district just south of Tulsa. We lost by 10,000 votes in that Special Election, in a solidly Republican area. The politics of 2002 are worlds different than now.

We need to keep in mind that turn-out in special elections are in the 15 to 25% range, so they are much smaller universes of voters than in Primaries and General Elections. Now, is this a good indicator of things to come? Possibly to very likely.

So, let's look at Primary Voters. These are people that are voting for their Candidate of choice for their prefered political party. I have to laugh every time the Clinton Campaign tries to make the case that they are competative in rural America and thus more electable. People who vote in Democratic Primaries in rural America lean moderate to conservative Democrats. This assertion will not hold up in the General Election phase of the campaign. It will evaporate like a raindrop in the Sahara. When this whole thing began, Hilary had equal numbers of people that held a positive and negative view of her, with about a 3 to 5% range of those who were undecided or had never heard of her. She had very little room to move or shape the image that she wants to portray because most Americans already knew her and had an opinion of her. You either love Hilary or hate her. There is very little in between. If anything, she is a drag on the whole ticket. Sorry, but there's not much way to get round that fact.

As for Congressional District propsects in Virginia, there is reason for hope, but history is the best indicator of success. My rankings for pick-ups, from most likely to least likely with the current candidates, are as follows: VA 11, VA 2, VA 10, VA 5, VA 7, VA 4, VA 6, VA 1.

The most likely pick-ups will be VA 11, 2, & 10. It falls off fast after these. The rest, some really amazing things would have to happen. Just because ther was high turnout during the VA Presidential Primary doesn't mean that will translate into a VA tidalwave in all parts of the stata. Mark Warner will win, Obama will be very competative, Northern Virginia turn-out, Hampton Roads and Richmond and how they vote will be key, but once you get past the Golden Cresent, the conventional thinking doesn't hold. The down ballot Congressional races will get a bump, but it will be up to the individual campaigns to define the incumbants and most don't have the money or resources to do that. The point I am trying to make, the General Election will be a very different animal than what is going on right now. Lots of things will change betweeen now and November. Keep it all in perspective.

Ok - smacking forehead again

snolan — Wed, 14 May 2008 14:16:59 GMT

Since when did vademocrats.org become useful? Pleasantly surprised!

http://vademocrats.org/pages/2...

Anita Hartke - www.hartkeforcongress.com - is challenging Cantor in the 7th.

And the party has no one listed as challenging Wittman in the 1st. Probably because of the recent special election there?

Yay - there is a challenger in the 4th: Andrea Miller

snolan — Wed, 14 May 2008 14:06:41 GMT

And I found the information right here on RK, thanks to TruBlue!

Lowell, how about a sidebar focusing on VA Congressional races, district by district in the sidebar? At least through the November election...

Might help inform voters and keep us on target...

Doh! Smacks forehead in shame

snolan — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:52:16 GMT

I totally forgot to mention that we should also remember to support Rick Boucher in the 9th as well.

Which means the math should read:
3 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and two outright loons (Drake and Cantor) to 8 Democrats, 1 Republicans, and freakin' Cantor.

So now I am a little scared, started doing district by district research at the State Board of Elections website (which is painful to use), and I can't find any Democratic candidates for the following districts!

VA-01, VA-04, VA-07

While I understand about the 7th; but I sure hope I am missing some good candidates for the 1st and 4th.

It is nice that no one appears to be challenging Bobby Scott or Rick Boucher.

The only primary challenges are in the 8th, 10th, and 11th (on June 10th).
Looks like no Democrat wanted to wrestle with Mark Warner for Senate, and the Republicans are doing a convention/caucus to avoid cross-over Dems messing with the process...

What is a little scary for us Byrne supporters is that they Republicans in the 11th have no Primary either, so Republicans in the 11th are free to mess with the 4 way Democratic Primary there. Egads! Very shrewd move for Keith Fimian (the presumptive Republican nominee who has very good funding).

VA-01: Robert J. Wittman (R) unchallenged? (May 17th convention?)
VA-02: Thelma Drake (crazy-lady) challenged by Glenn Nye (D), go Glenn!
VA-03: Bobby Scott (D) unchallenged?
VA-04: Randy Forbes (R) unchallenged?
VA-05: Virgil Goode (R) challenged by Tom Perriello (D), go Tom!
VA-06: Bob Goodlatte (R) challenged by Sam Rasoul (D?) and Janice Lee Allen (I)
VA-07: Eric Cantor (R) unchallenged?
VA-08: Jim Moran (D) challenged in primary by Matt Famiglietti and in the General by the winner of a primary between Mark Ellmore and Amit Sing
VA-09: Rick Boucher (D) unchallenged?
VA-10: Frank Wolf (R) challenged in primary by Vern McKinley and in the general by the winner of a primary between Judy Feder and Mike Turner
VA-11: open seat, four way Democratic primary, only one Republian, Keith Fimian, and one Independent Green, Joe Oddo.

Please help me fill in the blanks here - this was just some quick searching via wikipedia and google since both votesmart.org and Virginia's SBE site failed me.

Teddy you are correct in your assessment

citizenindy — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:43:08 GMT

Its part of the reason why I became an independent

So when do small states count?

TurnPWBlue — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:39:33 GMT

I'm confused. I've been led to believe that Obama's victories in small states really aren't important. What's important are the big, traditionally Democratic states. Now I'm being told that West Virginia is really the lynch pin and small states do matter.

I guess the lessons I'm supposed to draw from all of this are:
- Small states only matter when you win them, otherwise they are to be dismissed as irrelevant.
- Every vote matters unless it's a vote cast for your opponent (see previous point on marginalizing small state victories).
- Popular vote only matters until you're no longer ahead in the popular vote, then it becomes an amorphous "electability" factor (see previous point on marginalizing actual votes cast).
- The more "electable" candidate is the one who can't win her own party's votes (see previous points on marginalizing the will of the party).

Funny, because I disagree entirely with Fred2Blue

Silence Dogood — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:05:43 GMT

One of the key differences between 2007 and 2008 so far has been the Democratic Primary, which has drawn new primary participants in record numbers, and we can assume that the vast majority of those participants are Ds or are independents leaning towards Democrats. We have a much more solid foundation to build the vote on thanks to this contested primary--in otherwords, thanks to Barack Obama AND Hillary Clinton.

These primary wins aren't just about putting the GOP into panic mode, it's about refuting the idiotic "meme" batted about that the primary is destorying the party, when in actuality it's helping us organize in areas we wouldn't have been competitive in otherwise. Recent results are proving it decisively.

Let Hillary run in her last few states. Don't begrudge her for it. It's good for the party.

Tom Davis post-retirement?

Marc Abanto — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:05:13 GMT

I saw this in Mike Allen's Playbook on Politico this morning.

***Whispers among some House Republicans about trying to replace Cole with Rep. TOM DAVIS (R-Va.), who was NRCC chairman from 1998 to 2002.

http://www.politico.com/playbook/

Nice!

Lowell — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:02:41 GMT

Thanks for the "heads up."

Further Expansion of the Obama/Webb Effort!

cycle12 — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:02:19 GMT

Good morning, RK!

Thanks to Hank Bostwick of the "Star City Harbinger" blog - which posted a front-page story (available at this link; http://starcityharbinger.com/?... ) in the SCH yesterday about our efforts to draft Jim Webb as Obama's VP - his article has now been picked up by the popular "Scrutiny Hooligans" blog of western Carolina and is available at this link: http://www.scrutinyhooligans.u...

The "Draft Jim Webb for VP" effort continues to expand...

Run, Jim; run!

Thanks!

Steve

Dems Abroad Chair Christine Marques Endorses Obama!

jlmccreery — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:00:47 GMT

Christine just sent an email announcing her endorsement to the Dems Abroad leadership list. Christine's endorsement counts for a half (.5) vote addition to Obama's tally.

Excellent!

Lowell — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:30:21 GMT

Let's work together on this and crank it up. Email me at lowell@raisingkaine.com and let's chat about what we can do. Thanks!

visit: jimwebb4vp.com

driver49 — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:28:22 GMT

At the risk of being late to your party, over the weekend I created a website dedicated specifically to this movement.

I'm making the same argument at http://jimwebb4vp.com

I've signed your petition, and also started my own, but I'll gladly make your petition the default petition on my website so that we're gathering all the signatures in one place instead.

Nice to know I'm not the only one who recognizes what a great idea this is, for the Obama campaign and for our country's future.

Thanks,

--PS

Fantastic Diary, Faithful, Absolutely Helpful

snolan — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:14:23 GMT

Can someone with connections please send this to the Obama campaign?

Here is a crazy theory:
Obama lost some votes in WV because people only know him through Fox spin.
Clinton won huge because she managed to turn out the Reagan Democrats.

Turnout was huge. Much larger than Democratic primaries of the past.
If she motivated voters who have been voting solidly Republican on social issues for the past several elections, there is a huge opportunity here.

Obama needs to address the Fox spin in appalachia, in person, and stress his working class and populist appeal factors. They need to know he is a Christian, he comes from a working family, he is an American, he will stand up for workers.

I was previously writing off West Virginia for the general election (it went for Bush big time), but Clinton has proven something - West Virginia can be a game changer in November. McCain is going to have trouble turning out the social agenda voters, and Obama may appeal to the fiscally conservative more than McCain does. We just need to get the message out there.

This is huge news for Tom Perriello

aznew — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:08:24 GMT

The main argument against Perriello has been that he is a good man and a good candidate, but no one can beat Virgil Goode in the 5th. The evidence for this has been Goode's margins in his last three elections against Weed, twice, and Richards.

These three special elections suggest that built-in advantage may not be as strong as some think.

There are three keys to Perriello winning this race:

1. An effective substantive argument as t why the people in the 5th District will be better off with Tom than with Virgil. CHECK

2. Enough money. GETTING THERE

3 A strong Democratic wave in November. THESE THREE SPECIAL ELECTIONS, COMBINED WITH RECNT POLLING DATA, ALL OF WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH COMMON SENSE OBSERVATION AND EXPERIENCE, SUGGEST THAT THIS IS OCCURRING, AT LEAST SO FAR.

That said, there are several important differences between MS-1 and VA-05, not the least of which is the fact that the Democrat, Childers, was from the rural part of the district. Tom, obviously, is from the more urban part of the Fifth, which does make getting enough of the crucial rural vote a little tougher. But as Kaine and Warner have shown, the votes are there in sufficient number for a Democrat to win in this district.

Also, having Obama and Warner on the ticket, particularly Obama, will help a candidate like Tom Perriello by bringing people to the polls (not just African Americans) more inclined to generally pull the lever for a Democrat, even if they know nothing about Perriello or Goode, IMHO.