This appears to be a tough, but winnable, contest for Democrats, in a district that has been trending their way over the past several election cycles. In 2005, the district went for Tim Kaine, and in 2006 for Jim Webb.
So what about this year? I've got new polling data, by Myers Research, that indicates a potentially close race. Here are the highlights:
*Party ID in the disrict is 32D-33I-35R.
*The "generic vote" is 42R-38D, within the 5.2 percentage points margin of error
*The initial head-to-head matchup is 43% for Herrity, 35% for McClanahan; not bad considering that Herrity has 62% name ID versus about half that for McClanahan.
*Once people hear about both candidates, it's actually 41% for McClanahan to 40% for Herrity - a dead heat.
One key issue in this race will be Herrity's ties to developers. So far, Herrity's been going around saying that he'll be tough on developers, but there's no doubt that he's their candidate in this race and is being funded by them. Expect Herrity to be busy using developer money to pay for advertising this fall saying how tough he'll be on developers.
Will voters in the Springfield District see through this charade or not? That's one challenge for the McClanahan campaign, to inform voters about Herrity. The other challenge, and it's a big one, will to motivate and get out Democratic voters in an "off-off year" election. Come November, the side that's more motivated will almost certainly emerge victorious.
"It's not a good year to be a Republican," McClanahan said.
His thoughts were echoed by Herrity, who said bluntly, "It's true. The Republican name sucks right now."
To think that this guy was trotting around in April during the primary, saying things like, "I am the future of our party...(and)...I have what it takes to be your next supervisor and (future) chair of the board..." makes me just laugh.
The fact that Pat Herrity had to twice beg for the FCCC endorsement during the primary should clue you in on this guy's behavior (he is a board member of the chamber, and yet he still had to beg!).
To top it all off, this race should have been a complete blow-out for Pat. Instead, he messed up by thinking he had daddy's name to rescue him. Unfortunately, he never bothered to ask the neighbors if that mattered anymore. Of course, it doesn't. Half of his neighbors never lived in the same district when Herrity was chair. I should know, I've canvassed his precinct with one of his neighbors.
I'd argue that he is completely clueless, yet his own admission of how Republicans are doing is also his only salvation of a rational thought.
To all those in Springfield, vote for Mike McClanahan. Please, before we get an idiot on the board.