Actually, since it's the United Nations, it's a re-attack. President Bush's unwitting campaign to discredit every formerly legitimate Western leader or institution continues unabated. Fortunately for Bush, the new Secretary General is the proverbial doe in the headlights. Unfortunately, there is no mission too outrageous if it means financial support in the UN's never-ending search for relevance.Just two months ago, the UN mission essentially fled Baghdad for more safe havens outside Iraq. This followed the realization that mortars reaching the Green Zone did not distinguish between friend, foe, or neutral. A member of the mission told me that the number of UN personnel in Baghdad was reduced until overhead protection with sidewalls could be constructed to enclose the individual accommodations. The staff ceiling in Baghdad was arbitrarily and hastily reduced (without consideration for critical mass). By the end of May, many of the mission members were removed to places like Amman. Since then they have sat on their hands while trying to remain engaged. There have been things to do, of course, but no one can get to people in order to engage issues.
The UN contact described Iraq as circling the bowl and picking up speed. From his view, the MNF-I can pull a rabbit out of a hat with the surge but he fears the bad boys have the advantage. He points out that they too can read T.E. Lawrence and realize how to exercise their strengths and avoid their weaknesses. He told me last May that as for the US pushing the UN for a greater role, the only hope of this happening is with the Secretary General, who is beholding. A year ago it was the US academics who were clearly stating that the UN is not the organization to take over such a mess. The UN at that time would have echoed the sentiment in spades. How this might occur with a mission that is currently adrift, some would say floundering, is dependent on issues beyond the UN's control.
And President Bush is beyond the UN's control. He deludes himself and includes others in his fantasies. Although there are reports of some pacification success, a report from Erbil (Arbil) in the north is that while many people have deluded themselves that this area is ripe for development and nearly a security nirvana, this is hardly the case. The Erbil area itself may be reasonable, accepting the odd VBIED. However, the surrounding area is a hotbed of bad boys. As well, the Kurdish core group could easily shift alliances when it is convenient; because that is what they do. And Bush's recent overtures to Turkey vis a vis the Kurds are par for his oblivious international grasp.
Basra is now beyond reach. As early as February, the motion was set for the UN's departure from the Basra Palace. Rounds were landing in that small area regularly and accurately. It had become impossible to do any business other than stay close to cover. So, the UN moved its stuff to Kuwait and awaited an outcome. The Brits moved to the Basra International Airport site and the firing followed them. The trend in the UK is that the Brits will be gone in within a year.
Up to now, members of the mission haven't thought that the UN's political imperative there is worth a life. The UN's ability to inspire a person to risk his life is a question all of us who have served in it ask. Many in the Iraq (or any) mission come from military backgrounds, which works against them. Because of their conditioning there is an expectation that the principles and objectives they were accustomed to in the military are somehow present in the UN. The organization does not have unlimited liability, it does not have institutionalized ethos and training, it does not have universal principles and objectives, and it certainly does not have inspirational leadership. Without these significant elements and with managers that will run for the hills as soon as someone is killed, combined with an insurance plan that will seek out every loophole to avoid paying out there is little hope that one would make such a sacrifice. Aside from the ex-military group, there are people who do take such risks for the UN, and their motivation is often the saddest factor. They do it, my friend says, because of their sensibilities.
The first indication that the UN is out of its element is that the organization is seeking $130 million to build a heavily reinforced compound in Baghdad to house the growing U.N. mission. Isolation from the problem in a heavily reinforced compound is a formula for failure. This is not the kind of presence that the UN has used successfully. Without getting too bureaucratic, it looks like a peace enforcement rather than peacekeeping mission. Wrong road for this organization. Watch Hotel Rwanda for an appreciation of the distinction and to fully appreciate the previous paragraph. You see, this will make the UN a foe. Those mortars will be falling on them with purpose.
Okay, a bottom line. Coincidently, President Bush is scheduled to go to the UN in September (likely in consonance with the Petreaus Report), to ask the UN if it will take on this mission (tar baby). Undoubtedly, He'll pull a rabbit out of the hat. In an almost inconceivable turn of events, the UN, formerly known as the unwitting propaganda tool of the third world, may be moved to do the bidding of the witless strategist. And, the UN will become just another victim of the Bush campaign to set the world right.
Cross posted at VBDems.org - Blogging our way to Democratic wins in Virginia Beach! Go RK!