Political analyst Stu Rothenberg came out with his latest 2008 Senate race rankings this morning, and the most intriguing item was Virginia's inclusion in the "Toss-Up" category.
Only three states are in that category: Colorado, where incumbent Republican Wayne Allard is retiring and Democratic Congressman Mark Udall looks to be in far better shape than Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer; New Hampshire, where incumbent Republican John Sununu continues to vote against the wishes of NH voters time and time again, and polls have Sununu tanking; and, of all places, Virginia.
While we all can speculate that John Warner will retire, given his virtually non-existent fundraising in 2007, a Warner retirement alone would most likely only put Virginia in the "Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party" category, not all the way into the "Toss-Up" category. Does Rothenberg have inside info on the plans of Mark Warner? Does Rothenberg just think very little of the current state of the VA-GOP? Very peculiar inclusion, at any rate.
Right now, I think Virginia is a toss-up if John Warner isn't running. But I'd love for the wheels to start turning on our back-up plan if Mark Warner doesn't run.