RK ARCHIVE - Doug Denneny Meeting: 11th District Analysis

1. Denneny has never run for political office before, and would need to assemble a campaign team, figure out how to raise money, hone his message, etc. As we saw last year with Jim Webb, that's not easy.

2. Assuming that John Warner retires (likely) and Tom Davis runs for U.S. Senate (likely), Denneny would enter a crowded Democratic field to succeed Davis. For starters, it is widely assumed that Gerry Connolly will be running for Congress next year. As Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, Connolly would be a formidable candidate, although it's important to keep in mind that he couldn't transfer the money from his current campaign to a Federal one. Also, there's a $2,300 limit at the Federal level that Connolly does not face at the local level. That would almost certainly make it more difficult for Connolly to raise money (e.g., he couldn't just go to World Resources Corp. or MVM Inc and ask for tens of thousands of dollars). Finally, around 25%-30% of the 11th district is outside of Fairfax County (in Prince William), and it's hard to know how Connolly would do there.

3. In addition to Connolly, Leslie Byrne would be a super-strong candidate and very difficult to defeat for the Democratic nomination. For starters, my belief is that if Leslie Byrne decides to run, she would have overwhelming support from the netroots and grassroots Webb supporters. In short, we have not forgotten the crucial role that Leslie Byrne played last year in helping boost Jim Webb to the U.S. Senate, and our loyalty to Leslie is very strong. Finally, it is important to point out that in 2005, Leslie Byrne carried the 11th District 54.7%-45.2% over Bill Bolling, carrying Fairfax County with 56.8% of the vote while losing Prince William County 51.1%-48.8%. So, Byrne has already proven that she can win the 11th district against a strong Republican opponent, giving her a strong "electability" argument on top of everything else. Again, that would be extremely tough for anyone to beat.

4. Another wild card is Andy Hurst, the Democratic nominee last year for the 11th Congressional District. Hurst didn't defeat Tom Davis, but he did receive 44% despite being a first-time candidate and getting massively outspent. This time around, assuming Davis is running for U.S. Senate, there won't be an entrenched incumbent for Hurst to deal with. My impression, however, is that Hurst is actually more likely to run if Davis does NOT vacate the seat to run for U.S. Senate; among other reasons, Hurst simply doesn't like anything Tom Davis stands for and would love to beat that guy. If Davis is not running, I'd say the chances of Hurst jumping in again probably fall to 25% or less. We'll see.

5. If Tom Davis runs for re-election, he will be tough but NOT impossible to beat. As of this moment, however, most everybody is assuming that John Warner will be retiring after a distinguished career, and that Tom Davis will attempt to succeed him. (By the way, Denneny appears to be running regardless of whether Davis is in or out)

In sum, Doug Denneny is a great guy and would make an excellent candidate in the 11th District, but he faces numerous and signficant obstacles. Having said that, something tells me that a TOPGUN instructor doesn't back down easily from a fight. Stay tuned!

Comments

For God's sake - look where his money is coming from! (Hiker Joe - 7/15/2007 11:14:10 PM)

SAIC: owns 18 acres of land on the doorstep of a future Metro station thanks to Connolly.

WestGroup: the largest landowner in Tysons Corner.

Auto Dealers: own tons of land around proposed Metro stations in Tysons. As a good Democrat, I'm sure you support auto dealers.

8500 CDC LP-Clemente Development Co. Inc: major Tysons landowner.

Lerner Corp: owners of Tysons II.

I could go on and on but you get the point. Connolly got a third of a million dollars in the first three months of this year, mainly from development interests. The minimum entry price for his Tysons Tower Club fundraiser was $1,000 per person, tables were $10,000. And the fat cats were ponying up right and left.

A few months ago the Washington Post decried a Bush fundraiser where the entry price was $2,500 but that was for the President of the United States! But a piss-ant County official gets $1,000 and the Post doesn't think that's a problem?

SAIC is but the tip of the iceberg.

Great Introduction to Denneny (AnonymousIsAWoman - 7/14/2007 6:58:16 PM)

My feeling, though, is that if Davis runs for Senate or, for any other reason chooses not to run, the field will become crowded with local officials from both parties ready to move up. If it's an open seat, we already know Connolly would run. Leslie Byrne also might be interested - and she'd be my first choice. You also have an interesting point that Hurst may not be interested if Davis isn't his opponent - though that would certainly make winning easier.

I think this district would become ours to lose. And a novice would carry greater risk regardless of how promising he is. If he's really promising, I'd like to see him run for something at a local or state level - a delegate maybe - rather than get chewed up in a more difficult federal election. Too many promising careers have already been wrecked in the 11th CD because the candidate was just not experienced enough for a run at Congress.

Denneny would have 2 years of OJT. Leslie doesn't need OJT. (Tom Counts - 7/15/2007 11:47:10 AM)

Point #1 seems to be mostly/all about how tough it would be for Denneny to even learn how to campaign, much less get elected even if he survived the primary.

But what if a miracle far greater than the Webb Boots on the Ground grassroots/netroots miracle occurred and he won the seat anyway ? I have read nothing in his background indicating that he has any significant knowledge about what he'd have to be ready to do immediately after he is sworn in. A huge difference between being a first-time U.S. Senator and a first-time Congressman is that a Senator has some time to learn the ropes and not worry about starting the fund raising/campaigning cycle the first day on the job. Personally, I don't want my 11th CD Representive to be a person who has to depend on staff to tell him what he needs to do and how to do it every day. Being a Topgun makes him no better quailfied than I am; at least I know what it actually takes to get nominated and elected. BTW, also in this context: What is his "message" that needs some "honing" ? The voters may not buy a first-time candidate just improving his quoting of the party core messages (I wouldn't buy it. That's not why I worked so hard for Jim Webb.)

It is not nearly enough for him to be willing and able to "fight" when he doesn't know yet how to fight effectively to get elected nor how to fight effectively in the House.

On the other hand, per my subject line Leslie doesn't need any OJT - she could provide OJT if Denneny wants to apply for a staff job so he could gain some knowledge and experience in legislative matters. But that's just an academic point since Leslie couldn't justify paying even a very junior staffer just to give him some training. I think you're right on target with the point that if he's really interested in becoming an elected official he needs to start at the local level.

My more basic concern, though, is his motivation(s), given that even a neophyte would have to know that in a Presidential election year endorsements and fundraising would be nearly impossible for him. What's the motivation of those who are advising him, and who is doing the advising ?

Shorter version: Immediately after the Nov. 2007 elections I would be honored to join a Draft Leslie movement. She could win the 11th CD by a landslide. And she is well respected on both sides of the aisle, which enables her to bring civility and bipartisanship to the legislative process for the common good.

Naturally, I deeply appreciate what she did for Jim Webb and all of us. I believe that's the single most important thing anyone has done for the common good in decades. She has the experience, knowledge, ability and support to build on that great contribution as my Representative.

Respectfully submitted for your consideration.
Take back the 11th CD.

T.C.