and in that situation, whoever wins the Dem nomination would be considered the favorite, even against Jeanne Marie, whom of curse Tom wants to succeed him.

Doug has a very good presence.  He is a large man for a naval aviator, and he physically fills the space without overpowering you.

He has been involved in selling to the Government, and I do not know how that will play out.

There are a couple of quick questions to consider
  - how much money is available for primary battles?  Feder already has a chunk of money on hand?
  - what if any commitments by name Democrats do the other contenders have?  Will Webb endorse Leslie because of her early endorsement of him, or will he acknowledge that Doug was also a strong supporter, and perhaps stay neutral, helping any Dem with fundraisers the way Mark Warner did in the senatorila primary?
  - who will be able to lock up the activist base?  Right now most activists are focused on 2007, so there may be a mad scramble this fall

It's funny, I found Doug's personal card about an hour before this diary went up.  Guess I'll have to drop him an email.

Any idea why with those tours plus being a USNA grad and serving 22 years, he retired as a Cdr?

I already like this guy way more than any of the other potential candidates.

another great dem candidate.

spoken with Tom Davis.  Ever.  The last thing we need is another Republican running as a Democrat [END SNARK].

You and I talked to Tom Davis at that Tysons Tunnel rally.  Does that make us Republicans?  (end snark)

I was just the guy with the camera.  An innocent bystander.  I have not tarnished my reputation by conversing with, gasp, a Republican.

in our Veterans for Webb group, among other things.

This is a district where a liberal can win, so I think I might support Byrne if she runs, I'm definitely not going to support Corporocrat Connolly though, he just does not strike me as a Democrat to really lead for the change we need in this country.  This guy looks good on paper so far, I'll just have to learn more about him.

This is all assuming Tom Davis runs for Senate, but come on hate him or love him unless Gerry is caught pushing over old people in wheelchairs there is no way any dem can beat his sizable name recognition, and the backing of the democratic machine and prob the DCCC. Anyone see a realistic chance the "evil empire" is getting beat in a primary?

but he is far from invincible.  The Hall/Smyth primary said an awful lot about how people feel about the Connolly machine. 

Sure, Smyth won and she and Gerry have claimed a "mandate".
But look under the hood and you see that she barely pulled out a victory despite the fact that she had a huge monetary advantage, the support of the establishment, she sent a very misleading (to the point of a flat out lie) attack mailer, and that Charlie ran what amounted to a grassroots campaign.  You really wouldn't have to change that equation much and Charlie would be on the BOS.  And I believe this says that Gerry is vulnerable.

He's ABSOLUTELY beatable.  Anyone is beatable in a primary, even DCCC candidates.  It happens often.

His name recognition?  Its true that every Democratic primary voter will know him.  There's a significant number of those people that don't like him.  And they also know Chap Petersen, Leslie Byrne, Andy Hurst, Ken Longmyer, Kate Hanley, and many other candidates who have been on the ballot District-wide.  Of all potential Democratic candidates in the District, Gerry will have the highest negatives.

Democratic "machine"?  If there is a Democratic machine in the 11th, please let us Democrats know where it is, we need it.

As to the DCCC, they're going to have their hands full defending all these new pick-ups.  Even if they get involved in a primary for an open seat in the 11th, what they do there will not be overwhelming. 

Connolly and Byrne only get in if it is an open seat situation.  Denneny is going to run even if Davis runs.  He has not yet filed paperwork or started to raise any money, but all that will apparently be happening relatively soon.  That might give him a chance to build up something before we know what Davis is doing.

And I do not expect Davis to make any moves until after the election in November - he does not want to jeopardize his wife's chance at reelection.  If he announced he were running for the Senate people might immediately question what Devolites is doing.  For that reason, do not expect anything official from Warner until November, even though I would expect to see little or no money raised in the current quarter, the results of which will be out in October.

I am friends with Doug Denneny, I may or may not serve in a role in his campaign. But here a few more things people should know.

We expect to have the support of the "Fighting Dems", being that Doug is a veteran. That includes many of the early endorsements that Senator Jim Webb got early in his campaign.

Doug has been speaking with WESPAC, VOTEVETS, and many other leading national Veterans organizations. I wouldn't be suprised to see folks like Sestak, Pat Murphy, and General Wesley Clark to endorse early.

This should be a very interesting race for the 11th!

In Fairfax City on July 4th.

Damn.  I was there.  Would've liked to have met him.  Sounds like an interesting candidate, I would've liked to hear what he had to say on a few issues.

It's really interesting to note at the numbers of military men and women flocking back to the Democratic Party though, isn't it? ;)

... to see how Connolly tars and feathers and veteran. Expect the Fairfax Board to start talking foreign policy soon.