RK ARCHIVE - Of "Short Heads" and "Long Tails": National and Virginia Blogospheres

According to Bowers, "the terms 'Short Head' and 'Long Tail'...refer, respectively, to the roughly 1% of progressive, political blogs that receive over 95% of all progressive blogosphere traffic, and the 99% of progressive political blogs that receive less than 5% of all progressive, political blogosphere traffic." "Long Tail" and "Short Head" are statistical terms, in which "a high-frequency or high-amplitude population is followed by a low-frequency or low-amplitude population which gradually 'tails off.'" Here's an illustration:

Again, Bowers' point is that there are just a handful of progressive political blogs that account for almost all the traffic (the "short head"), with tens or hundreds of thousands more accounting for just a small share (the "long tail"). Is this "short head"/"long tail" phenomenon alive and well in the Virginia political blogosphere? It's hard to know for sure, because not everyone reveals their site statistics publicly in a way that would enable comparisons across the entire blogosphere. According to an analysis by NLS, however, the following appears to be the case:

1) There are two blogs - NLS (Alexa rank: 230,095) and RK (Alexa rank: 141,308) - that receive around 1,800-2,400 visits per day.

2) After those two blogs, there's a significant traffic dropoff to blogs - BVBL, Bearing Drift, Virginia Progressive, Bacon's Rebellion (also Richmond Democrat and GOTV ) - that receive from 300 to 600 or so visits per day. This list does not count blogs such as Vivian Paige (Alexa rank: 177,868), VBDems (560,094), and Waldo Jaquith (572,795), all of which likely receive significant traffic but do not publish SiteMeter statistics.

3) After that, there are numerous blogs (the NLS blog roll lists over 100 Virginia political blogs, both left and right...some of which are inactive) that appear to receive under 100 visits per day.

In sum, there are two Virginia political blogs that receive a combined 4,000 visits per day. Then there are half a dozen or so blogs that receive around 300-600 visits per day (for a total of around 3,000 visits per day). Finally, there are perhaps 80 active blogs that receive under 100 visits per day, in many cases well under 100 visits per day. Let's assume those 80 blogs average 50 visits per day, that would result in total traffic of 4,000 visits per day - the same as the top 2 blogs combined. As far as I can tell, a graph of Virginia blog traffic would look something like this:

Looks kind of familiar, with the same "short head" and "long tail" that Bowers describes. Is this analysis flawed, or do you think it's a pretty good reflection of what's going on?

Finally, Bowers' argument is that "short head" blogs differ from "long tail" blogs in significant ways. Thus, "long tail" blogs generally are produced by a single individual in his or her spare time (with "limited communities" and "less varied and original content"). In contrast, "short head" blogs are generally group and community blogs which in many cases have moved beyond blogging per se into direct political action (e.g., drafting candidates). In addition, "short head" blogs are often produced by full-time, professional bloggers. And Bowers argues that it's getting harder, almost impossible actually, for anyone in the "long tail" to break into the "short head."

All in all, there's a lot to ponder here. I think that Bowers has done a great job of "meta-analysis" here, and I commend him for his efforts. My main question at this point is whether the trends Bowers sees at the national level are being replicated at the state and local levels (including here in Virginia). What do you think?

Comments

Another point about blog traffic (Lowell - 7/10/2007 8:58:22 AM)

It appears that national progressive political blog traffic has leveled off or even begun to decline, following a huge spike from mid-2003 through 2006. For instance, Alexa indicates a significant drop at Daily Kos over the past year in terms of "reach," "rank," and "page views." Sitemeter appears to confirm this trend over the past year. Over at MyDD, a leveling off also appears to be taking place.

Here in Virginia, Raising Kaine had been consistenly doubling its monthly visits, year-over-year, for a long time now. In June 2007, however, this trend stopped, as traffic leveled off year-over-year. Of course, last year saw us in the middle of a heated U.S. Senate contest, plus several interesting Congressional races. This year...well, for most Virginians, it's simply not that interesting. So, perhaps a leveling off in traffic compared to last year's excitement is not too bad, with 2008 seeing a resumption in growth? What do you think?

Personally, I believe that blog traffic (Lowell - 7/10/2007 9:20:12 AM)

grows when people are excited, angry, or both. Last year's Senate campaign certainly fit the bill. Right now, it's kind of quiet in the dog days of summer, and I feel like there's not much excitement out there on either the Virginia or national levels. However, my guess is that we'll see increased activity as we approach Virginia's General Assembly elections in November, then the 2008 Presidential and Congressional election cycle. Still, the question remains whether there's some sort of limit to blog traffic that has been reached at the national level.

Traffic Over Time (JasonK - 7/10/2007 1:52:29 PM)

I think you'll see a lot of national political blogs hit their peak traffic from 2003-2006 because it's when blogging really started to pick up for political purposes. Now, as more and more people become acquainted with it and more blogs are established, the big sites aren't as necessary because people can get their fix at smaller, more localized blogs that meet their needs. Many Virginian Democrats may have gone to DailyKos or MyDD in the past, but with something like RaisingKaine now able to give them national and local news as it applies to Virginians, why go elsewhere, especially if you'll cut and paste any worthwhile stuff from DailyKos for them already?

As more blogs are created, more filters are created, and a leveling off will occur. You'll still see the few big dogs at the top, but I think the sudden drop from top to the rest will ease a bit more.

Traffic (Waldo Jaquith - 7/10/2007 9:38:12 AM)

Only on a really slow traffic day would I get three-digit visit totals. :)

The long tail is an effect that's observable in most on-line communities. Very rarely have I been involved with any on-line community where the personalities' popularity and prolificness do not fit into a long-trail graph. It's the normal distribution of the internet. ;)

Yeah, I figured you got a lot of traffic. (Lowell - 7/10/2007 9:53:28 AM)

Still, assuming your blog gets 1,000 or 2,000 visits per day, the "short head" and "long tail" distribution for Virginia still eppears to hold. My guess is that this statistical pattern also applies to many other areas, such as music. Think about it: how many musicians are there, and how many are super successful monetarilyi? "Short head" and "long tail" once again...

Definitely in play in Virginia (Bubby - 7/10/2007 9:55:18 AM)

I'm constantly struck by how much work this blog (and NLS) require. Huge filtering of State, local and national events constantly underway. There is also a reliability factor - a near certainty that whatever issue is under discussion, we'll hear it comprehensively evaluated from the Virginia perspective here. Which doesn't mean the the more parochial blogs don't have value.

You could probably pick the short head blogs from the long tail blogs just by blogger effort - either individual leader, or group effort. Hustle always pays off. But there are outliers - blogs run by brilliant young thinkers - the leaders of tomorrow perhaps, which makes the blog ecology so relevant and exciting. A view to the future is always attractive.

Blogs come and go (Jim W - 7/10/2007 11:00:06 AM)

And Bowers argues that it's getting harder, almost impossible actually, for anyone in the "long tail" to break into the "short head."

The ?short head? ?long tail? analysis is correct. New blogs in the ?short head? will come from breakup of older ?short head? blogs and from the coalescing of ?long tail? blogs into ?group and community blogs.? The current population is never stable. Blogs come and go from both the ?short head? and ?long tail.?

Actually, I think that Bowers may be arguing (Lowell - 7/10/2007 11:16:36 AM)

the opposite, that "since at least November of 2005, the entry costs to the "short head" of the national, progressive, political blogosphere have become so extreme that a new "establishment" within the progressive, political blogosphere has begun to crystallize." Bowers adds:

It has been over one and a half years since a new blog has broken into the "short head" of the national progressive blogosphere, whereas not long ago new members of the "short head" used to be fairly common. Over time, their appearances slowed to a trickle, and now seem to have stopped entirely.

I'm curious, which "short head" national blogs do you see breaking up? I can't think of any off the top of my head...

Long Tails (JScott - 7/10/2007 1:10:58 PM)

While it is true that "long tail" blogs may by sheer numbers be produced by sole individuals I am not convinced that most of those blogs are too interested in "volume". Most of the smaller blogs will concentrate on the "local" political debate and backyard politics of local government over that of the national debate.
At times these so-called "long tails" provide early insight before the shorts get hold. I think we may have seen that in some of the primaries for local candidates in NVA, especially Charlie Hall. The "long tails" in their very focused content (some say limited)appear very different than that of the majors..
It satisfying to be a small local political blog at alteroffreedom and get calls/emails from those who run some of the major blogs driving the debate when they need "boots on the ground" regarding local issues like turnout. Its amazing how you go to a local Board Meeting and their are three or four bloggers and NO newspaper folks regarding such major issues as roads, schools, and tax issues.
Maybe it would be interesting to look at what exactly the "targeted" audiences may be in the case of the smaller blogs. These may not appear on blogrolls or accelerators or have wide appeal largely because they are so focused on a specific locality and may not enter or engage in the larger issues.

I'm joining the long tail (Nick Stump - 7/10/2007 1:23:51 PM)

I just registered my domain name (Kentucky Defender) and hooked up with Soapblox. As I work to get the site up, I think I know how Dr. Frankinstein felt right before his monster's heart started beating.

I'm not sure how this is going to go, but we need a community blog in Kentucky. I'll let you know when we get it up and running. Right now, I'm just learning how to ride this thing without falling off.

I also have registered a domain name (teacherken - 7/10/2007 2:32:07 PM)

but have so far done nothing about putting anything on it. I'd be interested in your experiences with soapblox. I note that Bowers and Stoller chose them for openleft. I am inclined to, but am interested in things like cost, etc.

Feel free to contact me offline at kber at earthlink dot net or teacherken at gmail dot com

thanks

Soapblox (Nick Stump - 7/11/2007 4:45:49 PM)

Ken, I chose Soapblox because it's the same company RK uses. The format looks like RK or Kos and as there's no community blogs in Kentucky, I thought it was time to get one going.

I did my first blogging here at RK. I'd been trading emails with Jim Webb when I was writing speeches for Fighting Dem Andrew Horne. After we got our ass kicked in the primary, Jim told me about Lowell and what you guys were doing here at RK and I came here and tried to do a bit of work. I'm most familiar with this format, though in reality, I'm a mess when it comes to computing. Ask Lowell. Everytime I try to post something with any html, I end up crying, "Lowell, could you help me do..." To Lowell's credit, he never called me an idiot, even though I proved myself to be one, over and over.

So, I guess, I want to be like you guys and have the same look.
There's a bunch of good blogs on the Soapblox network, so that's good enough for me.

Thanks Bubby... (Nick Stump - 7/11/2007 4:48:04 PM)

...if I can find enough good writer like you and the others here at RK, it will be just fine. Once we're online, I hope you guys will stop by and write a piece. I figure we're in the same region and close enough to build a treehouse.

This reminded me of something. (Kathy Gerber - 7/10/2007 11:00:14 PM)

I'll always live out on the tail because by the time I'm done the research I'm ready to move on to something fresh and 1/2 the time don't bother to post it. But I have some stuff related to this I'll put up on rudeclerk - IF I can find it.