The results are in, and with 102 votes cast, John Edwards of North Carolina has won the first RK Democratic Presidential nomination straw poll. Edwards received 35% of the vote, not a majority but certainly a plurality. In second place was "other," basically either Al Gore or Wes Clark, with 25% of the vote. In third place was Barack Obama, at 22%. After that, it really drops off to fourth place (Hillary Clinton at 9%), fifth place (Bill Richardson at 5%), sixth place (Joe Biden at 3%) and seventh place (Dennis Kucinich at 1%).What do I draw from this poll? Not a great deal, given that it was unscientific and also that only polled readers of RK. Overall, though, I'm not too surprised at the support for John Edwards, given that he's from the neighboring state of North Carolina. I suspect that Barack Obama has upside potential with African-American voters, who I suspect were underrepresented in the RK poll. I also suspect that Gov. Kaine's endorsement of Obama will help, once the two of them start campaigning together.
With regard to Hillary Clinton, the only way you can spin those results in to argue that the blogosphere is completely unrepresentative of the voting public. That certainly could be the case, but if I were on the Clinton campaign, I certainly wouldn't be happy with the lack of support for her among the netroots at this point.
Finally, the fact that "other" finished so high in the poll tells me that there's a significant segment of RK readers who are anxious about the current field, looking for someone else (Al Gore or possibly Wes Clark) to jump into the race. My opinion is that a Gore/Clark ticket would be super-strong, including in Virginia. But I'm not holding my breath for either one of those men to throw his hat in the ring. If they do, something tells me that we'll need to do a new straw poll, and that we may get very different results the next time around.
Meanwhile, Edwards dominates all Republican challengers in head to head matchups, and his negatives are narly half of Hillary's.
This all despite the fact that John Edwards is by far the most progressive candidate with the most well-documented platform. Hillary's plans are opaque, but we can't faile to figure she'd govern by Triangulation like Bill. I was willing to look the other way on all of this until I realized that her primary labor advisor is a long time union buster. We're going to be trading Karl Rove for Harris Miller.
And before we get oursleves too misty about the good-ol days with Bill, remember this:
Under Bill Clinton's watch, the federal government ended its commitment to poor people with Welfare Repeal, betrayed gays and lesbians with the Defense of Marriage Act, devastated family farms with the Freedom to Farm Bill, let media conglomerates take over with the Telecommunications Bill, violated civil liberties with the Anti-Terrorism Bill (which nobody remembers because we now have the Patriot Act), and pandered to anti-Castro extremists with the Helms-Burton Bill. And that was all just in 1996.
You don't lead the nation to a lasting center-left majority by fighting for the center-right, and you don't win anything by supporting a nominee who can't win.
If the Clinton's would have fought as hard for health care as they did to fuck us with NAFTA we would have good health care now and a hell of a lot more jobs.
I mean, c'mon, folks, the election is a year and a half away. It's fun to talk about, but is it really so urgent to commit to a nominee today?
Personally, I think Dems should focus a lot more on getting Congress to deliver results ASAP so that whoever is nominated has a strong record of Democratic accomplishment to run on.
I mean it is pretty obvious that I like Edwards a lot. But it is not like this is some sort of blind loyalty. I honestly believe that he is the best guy for the job. Not just the guy who can win (which he is).
Word to the rest of you. And I may post this same spiel on a couple of different diaries here so be patient with that.
IF YOU ENJOY OUR MAJORITY, DO EVERYTHING YOU CAN TO MAKE SURE JOHN EDWARDS IS THE NOMINEE. HILLARY CLINTON WILL FUCK THE DEMOCRATIC PARTYS CHANCES AT RETAINING CONTROL OF THE HOUSE AND SENATE.
Yes I was yelling about this. I know we are months away from resolution of this contest for our nominee. And it is fun for the armchair pundits and commentators to talk about. But the accelerated season and amazingly intense scrutiny on the race demand that I yell a little. I mean, what the hell do we think will happen if the GOP takes another presidency. This is not just about the Democratic party or partisanship at all. It is about the United States not looking anything like what its ideals would like it to be. That is what is at stake.
The length of Hillary's negative coattails cannot be overestimated.
Imagine this... from 2008 through the 2009 election, and throughout the entire runup to redistricting, Hillary is on the front page, with full frontal assaults on her from every ragin wacko on the right.
Rush will be deliriously happy as Virginia locks in red for the rest of the century.
uuugh!!!
In this case, the blogosphere clearly hates Hillary with a passion. It also tends to elevate the Gores & Clarks of the world based on their issues & resumes, which are impeccable, but overlooks their limited charisma.
(crickets chirping....)
It may suck for some of you guys, and there is nothing wrong with wishful thinking. However, at the end of the day. We need an electable candidate, and your dream guys have opted out.