He has not received the withering assault that is yet to come. While a blank-slate candidate has advantages, in that people can confer on him whatever hopes and desires they want, it also makes him more vulnerable to "swift boat" type attacks. Any attack of that type is going to have legs at first because he has not yet been vetted in a national arena. The attack won't be immediately discounted like say, another salvo on Whitewater or Vince Foster would.

Hillary has some immunity here, whether people like her or not, most have discounted the over the top attacks on her that Republicans and the media engage in. When they go too far it inevitable backfires to her advantage...Obama will not have this advantage...and will be put on the defensive more quickly. And these type stories will linger on for some time, with the media anxious for new scandal fanning the flames. How Obama will react to these attacks is an unknown at this point. So that is a gamble.

Also, this poll is out of line with virtually all other recent polls, including Rasmussen which has Hillary beating all Republicans except Guiliani where she is tied.

Also, take a look at the breakdown even in this poll, and you will see Hillary still beats all three Republicans among Indies...poll averaging and looking at trendlines gives a more accrate picture of where the race stands

Way too early to make a judgment based on opinion polls...and voting for someone based on their perceived electability has not worked out too well for us in the past...

You are joking if you think Hillary won't be the biggest target on the planet since....well....her husband!

She is NOT able weather these criticisms as well as he did, and she is NOT a real committed progressive reformer.

In short, she is NOT the Democratic nominee we need or want.

I am not decided to any candidate in our primary, but I will say one thing--I am vehemently and ardently anti-Hillary.

She is bad, bad news for our Party, our issues, and more importantly, our nation.

Do you seriously think another round of Whitewater and Vince Foster will injure her...she has been vetted...the voters know all about this stuff and have discounted it...

Can you possibly imagine Hillary Clinton reacting to a swift-boat type attack in the same weak way John Kerry did... Please...and we have no idea what slime they will attempt to pin to Obama, and since it will be something new, the media will latch on to it no matter how preposterous the charge.

In the last 16 years Hillary has been accused of everything from perjury, to lesbianism, to murder...and what has been the result...a highly popular two term Senator from the third largest state in the country..

And as to whether she is the type of candidate we need...a resounding yes is my answer. She is a committed Democrat who adheres to the values of the Democratic Party, and is a skilled politician with a knack for disarming opponents and getting results...

A lot of Democrats don't know Hillary was a Young Republican who campaigned for Barry Goldwater, who ran against LBJ on an anti-Civil Rights Act platform. He was one of the few Senators who voted against both the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act and Hillary supported him and he remembered her as one of his "Goldwater Girls." 

"I remember her going around in a gingham dress trying to get people to vote for me." -- Barry Goldwater on Hillary

Very few Democrats know Hillary was on the board of directors of WalMart for six years as it planned to systematically offshore their manufacturing to non-union, child and slave labor in China and South America. Sam Walton called Hillary, "My little lady."

Many know about her Iraq War vote to give Shrub a blank check to invade and occupy the Middle East indefinitely.

Hillary has a long long pattern of bad judgment.

By openly embracing the mantle of establishment candidate during a change election Hillary's favorable rating has gone down 13% in the last few months.  According to Gallup, Hillary now has a 52% negative opinion rating while Obama holds the lowest negative rating at 27%; the lowest in both Dem. and Rep. fields.  This means Hillary inspires the most number of people to come out and vote against her in a national election, while Obama's 27% is no larger than the hard core Republican base that would vote against any Democratic challenger.

GALLUP: Hillary Clinton's Favorable Rating Plunges
http://www.editorand...

Only when Hillary is involved...

As you well know, a primary campaign is a completely different animal than a general election campaign. I have no doubt that once the general starts, Hillary's message aimed at independents will yield results favorable to her..

As to her board membership with Wal-Mart, what makes you think that is going to harm her with the general public...? First it is well documented that she used her time on the board to encourage them to hire more women and minorities, and to encourage them to be more environmentally responsible. It was also at a time before Wal-Mart became the low-class entity that it is today Second, in case you haven't noticed, Wal-Mart is the most popular low-cost store chain in the country. I hate Wal-Mart personally, but I seriously doubt her involvement with Wal-Mart will have any effect on her popularity.

As to her Goldwater Girl days...you are kidding right...you seriously think the fact that she was a Goldwater Girl in her teens is going to have any affect on anything? C'mon...scrapin the barrel there. I imagine if the voters can get by the fact that Jim Webb was a Republican and administration official under Ronald Reagan, they can certainly handle the political affiliation of a teenager...

President Bush will not withdraw the troops from Iraq before the election.  Therefore, Iraq will still be the overriding issue in the presidential campaign.  The Republican candidates are in favor of staying in Iraq forever.  At least two-thirds of the public think the invasion was a mistake and want to end the military occupation soon.  Obama is the only one of the top tier candidates who opposed the invasion from the beginning.  Therefore, he is the most electable candidate.

This issue will be much different in 2008.  Something major is going to happen in September.  Or in other words "the course will be changed" 

the aggregate of polling from many different groups shows Edwards as the most electable, followed by Obama and then Hillary.

A Rasmussen poll less than two weeks ago had Obama DOWN 12 to Rudy, but that looks like an outlier from everything else.

If I am reading this WaPost/ABC poll correctly (and quite possibly I am not) Senator Clinton has a 15% point lead over Obama and more over Edwards. My instinct early this morning was that it was that accumulation of Democratic energy for the Senator from New York which sponsored Mudcat's frustration - his candidate Edwards is fourth in the new LA Times/Bloomberg poll (despicable anti-Mudcat comments now over 500 on DKos). I also felt that Florida's decision to virtually sacrifice its delegates by pushing for a Jan. 29 primary was an act of pure frustration. These represent a failure of faith by key Southern elements in the Democrats' current direction. But I'm feeling that New York and the Northeast is coming to understand that the price of Hillary is Giuliani. In today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll Giuliani leads her by 10%; a landslide. Obama is the strongest contender against a Republican. The question is how do the Democrats get to Obama?

http://www.washingto...
http://www.latimes.c...

win over some of the women who are supporting Hillary so enthusiastically.  I'm not sure how he does that, though, but I don't think that going negative on Clinton will do it.

Obama needs to reach out to non-college educated women to take out Hillary and he also need to keep making inroads within the African American Community

Obama-McCain 2008 best for the country :-)

Please--not McCain.  He's too much like a Bush clone when it comes to the war.  Besides his stance on the war, his age and his hot temper are a huge problem.  I doubt he'll get the nomination from his own party.

I am not ready to commit to any candidate - some I like better than others, but none of them motivate me to jump in and start donating cash.

My main beef with Obama is his pushing CTL (Coal to liquids) - to make diesel fuel out of coal.  From a greenhouse gas point of view, it is an awful idea.  From the standpoint of people who want to maintain the status quo, I can see why the idea looks attractive.

That's a total boondoggle, corporate-welfare fiasco.

that any of these GOP candidates should poll anywhere near that well against Clinton or any other democrat.  All of them support the surge.  Independents just came out a few months back and made November 2006 a referendum on the President's policies, and they're not going to turn around in November 2008 to elect a stay-the-course Republican.  If you read through the end of the poll, even Republican Primary Voters feel the same way:  65% of RPVs want a candidate who will move in a new direction, while only 27% want a candidate who will continue Bush's policies.

Right now the GOP candidates are hammering on immigration to distance themselves from Bush, but when the general election rolls around and the discussion comes back to Iraq, it's going to be pretty obvious that the GOP is not offering a new direction on foreign policy.  This is reflected in another question you didn't mention in a poll: Democrat versus Republican, who do you hope will win?  "Democrat" leads by eight points overall and by 14 points among independents.

Incidentally, the most rabid anti-Hillary voters are NOT going to vote to elect any other democrat.  They're going to break Republican no matter who we nominate.  Best case scenario is they will stay home if we nominate someone "less divisive."  That's not a good bet.

Nominating Hillary will do nothing but motivate the right-wing base, and it'll be 2004 all over again....DISASTER!!

It is IMPERATIVE that this nation be salvaged, that our place in the world be repaired and the community of nations again be fostered.

This can only happen with a Democratic presidency--preferrably a string of 3-4 of them.  Hillary can't do it.  Sorry.

I would LOVE to have a woman President.  But it can't be her--she will do almost as much damage to our nation as the Bush administration has been doing.

if we do not nominate Hillary, the right wing base won't be motivated.  Trust me: they're going to find something to motivate their base no matter who we nominate.  They're passionate people who frequently trade in fear and in hate, and they're going to hate on Obama for being black or Edwards for wanting to create a wellfare state and Gore for being a tree-hugger just as much as they will be motivated by Anti-Hillary sentiments.

I'm not voting for Hillary.  I'm leaning towards Obama because his message jives with me.  But I'm doing it because he's the guy I want to be President, not because I'm hand-wringing over whether or not Hillary is too offensive to radical right sensibilities.  Which is ultimately what I'm trying to illustrate by pointing to polling trends favoring change away from the current status quo represented by the GOP: don't play inside baseball or vote strategically to appeal to people who aren't going to vote for your candidate anyway.

Vote for whoever you think would be the best President.

Have to take these polls in perspective somewhat

http://www.realclear...

Thomposon is eating right out of McCain bad news for me.  I still think Thompson has Wesley Clark syndrome i.e. will only go down once he enters

Also, its important to look at Iowa, NH, and SC/Nevada

Iowa

http://www.realclear...

NH

http://www.realclear...

SC

http://www.realclear...

With the bigger states happening so quickly the net effect is smaller but it still has an impact

Here is Florida  (notice how here its a mirror of the national polls)  Because most candidates do not have active campaigns in the state

http://www.realclear...

which I have been pushing since November 2004 we need a candidate Obama's age to maximize our chances of winning.

Looking back through the history of the Democratic Party since Jackson, there have been nine times when Democrats have taken the White House away from the other party (Whigs or Republicans).  The successful challengers were Polk, Pierce, Cleveland (twice), Wilson, FDR, JFK, Carter and Clinton.  Wilson is the oldest of this group; he was 55 on Election Day 1912.  The median age, even counting Cleveland twice, is 48.

This list includes six of the ten youngest presidents ever elected, and Carter only misses that group by a few months.  Looking at the two candidates older than Carter, Wilson ran in 1912 against a GOP that was in open schism, with two presidents running against each other, while in 1892 Cleveland was actually winning the popular vote for the third straight time.

Now consider the 2008 Democrats.  Obama will be 47 on Election Day 2008; he fits well in this list.  John Edwards, the next youngest current contender, will be 55. Bill Richardson will be a week short of his 61st birthday, and the other candidates making the debate circuit (Clinton, Kucinich, Dodd, Biden and Gravel) are all older.

Of those who thought about it but dropped out (or never dropped in), Evan Bayh will be 52, the same age as Carter.  Mark Warner (53) and Russ Feingold (55) would be pushing the upper edge of the envelope.

I don't claim to have an explanation for this.  It is a small sample; any list of presidents is.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the Democratic Party, as the party of the left, has a more natural appeal to youth.  I also suspect that young voters connect better with a younger candidate who is more likely to speak to their issues on their terms.  But I do think it is a point that we should not ignore.

As part of a York Poquoson Democratic Committee fundraiser Sunday at The Carrot Tree in Yorktown folks enjoyed wonderful desserts, beverages and appetizers, mingled with candidates and fellow Democrats, and took part in a 2008 Presidential Straw Poll.

The Candidates we supported included:
Troy Farlow for VA House of Delegates in the 96th
Ann Thomas for York Commissioner of the Revenue
York County Board of Supervisors races:
1st?Suzanne Creasey
2nd?Chris McDonald
4th?Sam Eure

The Presidential Straw Poll Results:
Barack Obama --- Winner
Hillary Clinton and Al Gore --- 2nd place tie
Joe Biden - got one vote
note: A vote for Bill Richardson was changed to Al Gore to create a tie for 2nd

I wouldn't jump to any conclusions.  I think Obama is well liked in the polls, but I seriously doubt he could win in the general election. 

It seems like there is a new poll every day of the week.  I won't start taking them seriously until they all start saying the same thing with little room for error.