The biggest problem the GOP faces is the war in Iraq. Rural Americans are not watching this war on television--they are fighting it. Nearly 60% of respondents in this poll have a friend or family member deployed in Iraq.
Rural America continues to suffer from the outsourcing of jobs. Those rural voters who have jobs often drive hours from their homes to work. Factor in record high gasoline prices and we can see some reasons why rural support for the GOP is unraveling. Though 50% of these voters identify themselves as conservative, they are no longer voting just for Republican candidates.
Only 45 percent of respondents favor Bush's "stay the course" strategy. They see Iraq as President Bush's war. In 2004, they rewarded Bush with a 19 point margin over John Kerry. The new poll now says rural voters would elect a generic Democratic presidential candidate by a slim margin over a generic Republican. Even Fred Thompson, touted by some as the best hope for the GOP only has a 22 percent favorable rating against an 18 percent unfavorable with the 52 percent who know him. The President's current job approval ratings an almost exact reverse of where they were in 2004. He has dropped from 54 percent approve, 43 percent disapprove to a current rating of 44 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove.
Populist candidates like Senators James Webb and John Tester were no fluke in 2006. They could well be the wave of the future if candidates decide to court rural voters. Webb campaigned in his native Southwest Virginia, traditionally a GOP stronghold, and picked up enough stray votes to squeeze out a 9000 vote win over Republican George Allen.
Dee Davis, president of the Center For Rural Strategies says, "The rural vote determines presidential elections. Democrats don't win unless they make rural competitive and Republicans don't win without a large rural victory. So you think that would mean the candidates would have a spirited debate on the things that matter to rural Americans, but we haven't heard it yet."
What should presidential hopefuls do? Rural Americans are looking for candidates willing to focus attention on their issues--economic fairness, jobs, the failing rural health care system, the crumbling rural infrastructure and the war in Iraq. Of course, these issues resonate in both urban and rural areas, but rural America's problems are often magnified by the lack of attention paid by those in power.
They would would do well to follow the lead of Senator Webb. Webb's unflinching take on the war and basic bread and butter issues facing rural America, speaks not only for rural Virginians but for rural Americans all over the country. In the current issue of Rolling Stone, an article by Jeff Sharlet calls Webb, "Washington's Most Unlikely Revolutionary". In the article, Webb, in a speech to UMW miners in Lebanon, Virgina says, "The old labels don't apply. The country is a different place. And now we can remake the party system in these United States. If we can get the Reagan Democrats--or whatever you want to call them--if we can get them back, we will remake politics. You don't measure the health of a society from the top down, but from the bottom up."
Presidential candidates from both parties would do well to read this poll and heed Senator Webb's call to action.
Even at my class reunion there were no vocal Bush supporters, though I know there are Republicans in the group. But the antiwar wing was definitely vocal.
MJW