Four For Tuesday - Part 1

By: Eric
Published On: 6/9/2007 10:16:19 AM

There are a number of very important and interesting primary races that will be decided this Tuesday - remember to vote and bother all your friends and neighbors to do the same. 

With this in mind, I'm going to discuss four of these races that are of particular interest to me.  This list is not necessarily the most important or most interesting - just the ones that I'm most interested in.  Although, for the record, I do look forward to finding out what happens in all the races.

I'm going to count down in reverse order.  Today I'll be addressing my third and fourth choices.

4. McEachin vs. Lambert
Ok, this one is obvious.  It is a carry over from last election when Lambert (D - supposedly) endorsed, supported, and campaigned for George "macaca" Allen while McEachin jumped on the Webb bandwagon very early on and worked hard to get Jim elected.  Both candidates are similar in position (although there are some differences if you closely examine voting records) so it's unlikely that their platform will have much of an impact.  In theory Lambert would hold an advantage being the incumbent, but McEachin is very well known so Lambert won't gain much of anything in this regard.  It's all about George Allen and the 06 election - and if the primary voters will remember which of these candidates supported their party and which didn't.

Prediction: I've heard McEachin is polling very well, which is a good sign for the Donald.  Regardless of polling, given that a number of the other typical factors are a wash, this will come down to a fight about supporting Allen.  And that's going to be very tough for Lambert to overcome. 
McEachin Wins.
3. Sullivan vs. Vanderhye
RaisingKaine held an endorsement contest for these candidates that ended in "no endorsement".  But two opposing trends came out of that vote which led me to make this my number 3 race. 

Sullivan easily won the online poll (approx 60% to 36%) here at RK by rallying his supporters to register and vote.  The "register" part is critical here, as many of Sullivan's votes came from people who registered during the two days the poll was open.  An online GOTV if you will.  While an online GOTV is much easier than the real thing, it was an even playing field and the Vanderhye team simply couldn't keep pace.

HOWEVER...

Of the people who had registered at RK before our contest started, Vanderhye won decisively with 58% while Sullivan (23%) barely beat out "No Endorsement" (19%).

While there's nothing definitive about this non-scientific online poll, I'd read these results as saying Vanderhye had a (slightly) better message/appeal but Sullivan is better at rallying votes.  So my interest in this race is not just who wins, but what, if anything, RK's voting was able to tell us about the actual result.

Prediction: Without polling data or anything in the way of good feedback on the race, I'm going to go out on a limb and use the non-scientific logic to make my prediction.  Plain and simple, a good GOTV effort will beat a good message every time.
Sullivan Wins.


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