Hotline: Will Virginia GOP Hit "Grand Slam?"

By: Lowell
Published On: 6/5/2007 9:58:21 AM

In today's Hotline, Patrick Ottenhoff reports on plans by the Virginia GOP, under Chairman Ed Gillespie, to hit a "grand slam" starting this year:

--2007 state Senate elections -- retain the six-seat GOP majority.
--2008 U.S. Senate race -- keep John Warner's seat in GOP hands.
--2009 House of Delegates -- secure the/a majority (currently at 14 seats).
--2009 gubernatorial -- reclaim the Executive Mansion.

According to Gillespie, "[t]he party that wins the Grand Slam, or wins three out of four [of its contests], will be the dominant party of the next generation" [in Virginia]." 

What are the chances for a GOP grand slam in Virginia? 

1. Of coures, Republicans are odds-on favorites to retain at least a slim majority in the State Senate this year. However, with numerous pickup possibilities - Chap Petersen (against Jeannemarie Devolites Davis), Ralph Northam (against Nick Rerras), Janet Oleszek (against Ken Cuccinelli), Greg Galligan or George Barker (against Jay O'Brien), Albert Pollard (against Richard Stuart), Karen Schultz (against Mark Tate), David Cox (against either Scott Sayre or Emmett Hanger), and Steve Heretick (against Fred Quayle) - the Democrats certainly have a shot at controlling the Senate this year.  Undoubtedly, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine will play a big role here, and it's hard to see how Republicans can do more than hang on for dear life.

2. This one will be interesting, if John Warner retires.  Assuming that Mark Warner runs for Sen. Warner's seat, I think you can pretty much chalk this one up as a Democratic pickup.  If not, it will be a lot tougher (but not impossible). We'll see.  (Note:  It will be fun to watch the Republicans potentially tear themselves apart in a primary here.)

3. I'd expect several pickups this year, including in the 51st (Faisal Gill?!? hahahahahahaha), the 34th (Margi Vanderhye and Rip Sullivan are both very strong potential candidates), and possibly several others (e.g., the 88th, with Commander Carlos del Toro?).  Then, in 2009, I would expect several more pickups that will put the House on the cusp, or over the cusp, of a Democratic takeover.

4. This one depends on a number of factors, including Tim Kaine's popularity as the 2009 campaign gets going.  If Kaine is super popular, my guess is that the Democrats will have a great chance of retaining control of the Governor's mansion.  If Mark Warner is the candidate, you can pretty much cancel the election right now.  If Creigh Deeds or Brian Moran are the candidates, it will be tougher but certainly winnable.

In sum, I'd say that Republicans had better worry about striking out rather than swinging for the fences.  A "grand slam" is nice to dream about, but I'll take a high batting average, a few stolen bases, great pitching, and good managing anytime.

Comments



Virginia First! (The Grey Havens - 6/5/2007 2:55:25 PM)
Since his masterful handling of the Transportation issue in session and historic leadership in the aftermath of the Virginia Tech tragedy Governor Tim Kaine (D) has emerged from the shadows of former Democratic Governor Mark Warner to take his rightful place as a true leader of the Commonwealth and emblem of Virginia's great future and historic legacy. His Warner-level approval ratings (nearing 70%) clearly show the truth of this.

He is a Virginian first and a Democrat somewhere thereafter, which is the position of the vast majority of Virginia Dems. Unfortunately for the RPV, Virginia knows that anyone Republican-Virginian is a Republican first and a Virginian long thereafter. Which is truly why Virginia is for Democrats.



Virginia is for moderates and independents (novamiddleman - 6/5/2007 6:43:31 PM)
The democrats have realized this.  Kaine has realized this by backing off his pre-k plan and pledging to not raised taxes the rest of his term (see about that)

There are signs that my side has begun to realize this we shall see how it plays out but for the record

2007 no but keep majority
2008 who knows who is even running here :-p
2009 we better this seems pretty certain
2009 With Moran running this is a definite possibility

So thats 3 out of 4 not too bad.



Kaine has backed off his pre-k plan? (Lowell - 6/5/2007 7:22:28 PM)
Link?


Can't find it (novamiddleman - 6/5/2007 10:27:51 PM)
It was the same article where he promised to not raise taxes anymore.  From what I recall, it had something to do with Transportation drying up all the available funding. 


If the republicans want to have a grand slam . . . (opencarry - 6/6/2007 10:09:19 PM)
they better get off the pot on gun rights - sending bills in the house to the death star committee so that they don;t have to vote on good gun bills is not going to cut it much longer.