NLS Scoop: Feder Files for 2008!

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/30/2007 3:32:13 PM

Over at NLS, Ben has the scoop:  "Judy Feder has just filed for rematch with Frank Wolf."  Cool, I am very much looking forward to this, especially since Wolf will have had two more years of supporting the Bush Disaster in Iraq, two more years of voting with the Worst President Ever, etc.  Also, Mrs. Feder will have a lot more time to raise money (which she excelled at last time), make her case to the voters, etc.  I am very glad to hear this news!

[UPDATE BY ROB: And Judy will have some new ammo seeing how we discovered after the 2006 election that Wolf lied to his constituents about his visit to Iraq to sell them on the war.]


Comments



Is there a source? (pitin - 5/30/2007 3:44:59 PM)
I have no idea whether this is true or not, and I have no reason to believe that it's inaccurate.

But for something of this magnitude it would be nice to have a source.  Maybe even just e-mail Judy and waiting for a response before publishing.

Just a thought.



Doesn't matter (littlepunk - 5/30/2007 3:57:00 PM)
She'll get crushed again.  She got whopped big time when everybody out there thought it was a close, single point race.  The climate was perfect, she raised a ton of money...the climate will not be as favorable this time around, and her ability to raise money with the poor showing last time will probably be lessened.

Chalk up another victory for big Frank W!  You'd better believe he's smiling today.



Here's Ben Tribbett's take (Lowell - 5/30/2007 4:18:25 PM)
One important note for now.  In 2002 Wolf got 72%, in 2004 he got 64%, and in 2006 he got 57%.  There are lots of reasons for this trend, but it makes 2008 look interesting, especially against an opponent who already has some name recognition.

Let's see, that's a decline of 15 percentage points in 4 years, or about 7.5 points per cycle.  If that happens again this time, guess what?  That's right, Wolf's at 49.5% and he loses.  Perhaps the rapidly changing demographics of that district might mean that it "matters" after all? ;)



Well (littlepunk - 5/30/2007 4:52:03 PM)
Scroll back to a past post about this...I know you, Lowell, agreed with the assessment that judging just by the climate and other factors her chances are much slimmer than they were in 2006.

Also, your large amount of winkie faces (smiley faces are okay) in your posts, coming from a married man, is kind of disturbing! 



I actually think the Republicans are in worse shape (Lowell - 5/30/2007 4:55:10 PM)
today than they were in 2006.  Their party's in disarray, the war in Iraq is worse than ever, it's really bad.  I'm not saying that Judy Feder WILL win, I'm just saying that she has a GOOD CHANCE to beat Frank Wolf this time.

As far as the emoticon is concerned, that was meant to be the sarcastic one.



Really Hope your Right (Matusleo - 5/30/2007 6:03:03 PM)
Before I gained deliverance by moving to Southwest Virginia many years ago, I had the displeasure of having Frank Wolf as my congressman.  I would be very happy to see him go. 

He is very entrenched, and it will take a lot to get him out.  I had hoped last year would be better, and confess to being quite disappointed in Judy's showing.  But I am ever hopeful, and will be glad to give Judy a little money to help out her and our cause!

Let's see a new Democratic Congressman (or Congresswoman!) from Virginia in 2009!

Matusleo
Ut Prosim



Uh, except for the whole Iraq thing, right? (Rob - 5/30/2007 6:58:19 PM)


How soon they forget... (Bwana - 5/30/2007 9:14:48 PM)
Lowell created a discussion in November 2006 because he couldn't believe Judy Feder got smashed (http://raisingkaine....), and I think he has forgotten the points raised in that discussion.  I provide the link so folks can take a look.

I will mention a couple of things that will be different in 2008...

Ms. Feder will have to potentially defend a democratic hill majority, or at least will have the fact that they are in the majority take away some of her campaign planks.  For instance, no way she can yell about lobby reform when the new majority democrats have not done anything to address it. 

Next, with the Democrats in the majority, will their focus to be to hold or expand?  Ms. Feder was touted right up to the end as one of the big upset chances, and she lost by 16% in the most democratic year since Watergate.  That doesn't sound like the foundation for massive DNC support in 2008, nor a target for donors in a presidential year.  I bet the DNC again targets Va-2 and now Va-11, given that Davis was run so close by a candidate who virtually no $$. 

As far as being a FOH/B, is Hillary going to have much time to campaign for her pals when she is leading the ticket?

Bottom line-people like Frank Wolf.  Judy Feder couldn't win in a massively democratic year, running behind both Webb in Va-10 and gathered fewer votes than a badly underfunded Andrew Hurst.  This seat is Frank Wolf's for the forseeable future...for all the reasons I laid out last November.



Good points ... (Rob - 5/30/2007 11:55:10 PM)
but the other side of the coin is that the atmosphere for the GOP could be even more poisonous if Iraq keeps heading in this direction.  And we certainly don't see any signs of things getting better.  Also - check out my update above.  I have a feeling that Frank Wolf will have some serious explaining to do about a certain letter to the Washington Post from 2005.  So, with President Bush still around, the campaign Dems can still be the "opposition" party since Iraq will be the key issue and the Republicans will be his supporters on that issue.

And, having run once, Judy already had a head start on fundraising, organization, experience, name ID, etc. that she didn't have in 2006. 

Of course, Wolf will be favored.  But then again, so was George Allen.



It'll be harder for him to lie about Iraq this time around. (Rob - 5/30/2007 6:56:05 PM)


I've checked and it's true. (Lowell - 5/30/2007 4:03:09 PM)
n/t


Feder's Poor Strategy & Bad Luck (Galenbrux - 5/30/2007 11:55:59 PM)
Judy Feder lost in 2006 because she implemented a poor campaign strategy and Lady Luck passed her by. Even if she had a better strategy, she would not have defeated Wolf without a stroke of luck like a Macaca moment.

In another place last February, I wrote the following:

"On election day November 2006, there were 463,161 registered voters in the Tenth Congressional District, and of that number 52.62% turned out to vote. . .

"Of the 243,602 people who voted . . . Judy Feder got
98,769 votes. Her Republican opponent, incumbent Frank Wolf, got 138,213. Feder lost in a landslide: 57% to 41%.

"In comparison, Jim Webb won the Tenth District receiving 120,659, or exactly 50% of the folks who voted in the Senate race (241,939). Note that Tim Kaine won the Tenth District in 2005 with only 95,200 votes.

"Uninterestingly enough, about the same number of voters voted in the Senate race as in the Congressional race. Usually, there is a greater disparity in participation numbers between the Senate and House races, which is referred to as undervoting.

"So, why did so many voters split their tickets between Democrat Jim Webb and Republican Frank Wolf? We're talking about 20,000 voters who voted for Jim Webb who also voted for Frank Wolf. Stated another way, 20,000 Jim Webb voters did not vote for Judy Feder.

"There are three possible reasons: (1) some voters liked Frank Wolf and didn't want to change; (2) some voters did not like Judy Feder, or more likely, did not know who she was; or (3) Judy Feder did not give them sufficient reasons for vote for her.

". . . Feder did not win any county. Her best performances were in Fairfax County (46% and 38,000 votes) and Loudoun County(41%, 33,000). . . In comparison, Jim Webb's best performances were in the same counties: Fairfax County (56.3%, 46,713 votes), and Loudoun County (50.1%, 40,381). Note the significance of the disparities in these two
counties. The 8,000 votes in Fairfax and the 7,000 votes in Loudoun together represent 3/4 of the votes Feder needed to win.

"The other counties and cities in the Tenth District produce
fewer voters, and, generally, Wolf won all of them, and George Allen beat Webb in most.

"Clearly, Fairfax County and Loudoun County together will determine who wins the Tenth District. Between Fairfax and Loudoun, Loudoun is the big fish to land. Indeed, this year Loudoun will add more precincts the Tenth District. While Fairfax will continue to have 52 precincts in the Tenth, Loudoun will likely increase to 66 precincts from its
present 56 precincts. Moreover, by 2008, Loudoun will probably have as many registered voters in the Tenth District as Fairfax County, about 84,000 each. {Note that these observations and projections are mostly my own and should not be considered official.]

Judy Feder lost because she failed to get the voters who voted for Jim Webb to vote for her. I think that she might have done a better job of attaching herself to Jim Webb's coattails, of convincing voters that she was a better candidate than Frank Wolf, and of increasing her name
recognition. . ."

Of course, this is not the complete story of Feder's campaign.

I expect voter turnout in November 2008 to be about 60% to 70%. Loudoun is still growing rapidly. Registered voters in Fairfax and Loudoun should be around 84,000 each. The entire Tenth District should be about 500,000. With a 60% turnout, we are looking at 300,000 voters showing up at the polls. Feder would need at least 150,000 votes to win. Discovering and getting these voters to the polls should be an essential part of the campaign plan.

However, the Democratic presidential candidate at the top of the ticker will have a lot to do with how well Feder will do. Certainly, Hillary Clinton will not benefit Feder as much as Obama or Edwards. Also, Mark Warner as the senate candidate will help Feder as well as other Democratic Congressional candidates.