Bob Novak's newest column predicts that Sen. John Warner will indeed retire, prompting a potential primary fight for the GOP nomination between Tom Davis and a conservative challenger, possibly Jim Gilmore. He also speculates that Mark Warner will not seek the Senate seat hoping instead to end up as Hillary Clinton's runningmate.A few things. First, many conservative Republicans would not be satisfied with having to choose between those two for the nomination. Tom Davis would be toast in a competitve primary with an authentic conservative. As for Gilmore, he's a loser and everyone knows it (except Jim Gilmore).
As for Mark Warner, I don't buy it. He's probably weighing all of his options before making a decision. Because if Novak is right and Hillary loses the nomination, or she wins it and chooses someone else, we will end up with George Allen back in the Senate. Allen would be the clear favorite for the GOP nomination, and without a strong Democratic challenger in the general election. Though Mark Warner could jump in to the Senate race late and still win the Dem nomination here in VA if the presidential nominee doesn't take forever in choosing his or her runningmate next year.
We know that Gilmore won't be his party's nominee for President and he said recently that he won't run for Governor. John Warner retiring and Tom Davis as his heir apparent has been common knowledge for years now.
As for Mark Warner, I don't think Novak knows a thing that you or I don't.
Webb BARELY defeated him last November in a year in which Allen ran the worst campaign in America. And a year which was horrible for Republicans. Allen couldn't have had a worse enviornment to run in, and he still almost won.
The real question has always been about Mark Warner's intentions. He's definitely going to run for something, either Senate next year, or Governor in 09. The question is, which will he choose?
And the real question for us Democrats, is who do we want to see run if Mark decides not to try for the Senate. Who else has the ability to mount a statewide campaign against Tom Davis? I wish I could say there were names popping to mind, but there aren't.
Matusleo
Ut Prosim
Right now the only other Dem who can win statewide is Tim Kaine, but if he left office early he'd turn the reins over to Bolling. That may piss off a lot of people and make Kaine look like he cares about his political career more than he does Virginia.
As far as Mark Warner, I still like an ealier scenario.
Mark runs for the Senate and of course WINS. Then in 09 he runs for Governor and of course WINS. When he wins he names Kaine as his replacement in the Senate.
Of course Creigh Deeds becomes Lt. Gov.
That is what I call getting and keeping good men in VA politics.
As for Mark Warner, he's not looking to be Hillary's running mate. He's looking to be Obama's running mate. Obama needs a strong former governor has his running mate, so balance out his strengths and weaknesses. Plus, have a combination of the former governor and obama's race would put VA in play for the first time since 1964, allowing Dems to lose Florida or Ohio and still win the general.
M. Warner isn't going to run for Senate in 2008 because he's waiting to get the nod to be someone's VP. If that doesn't happen, he'll jump into the 2009 governors race, where Moran and Deeds will stop fighting over the gov nomination and go for LG an AG respectively. Wild cards in that include other dem delegates with statewide ambitions.
Who are the dems going to have run in 2008 for senate? who knows? I do know that at the end of 2005 there were these rumors of this guy jim webb and this other guy harris miller who might run and I know we all just kinda wen, huh? who in the heck are those guys? so just because there isn't a natural candidate 18 months out doesn't mean that Virginia won't find one. Maybe when Creigh or Moran realize that Warner is running for gov, they'll decided to run for the senate.
This is why I love VA politics, always something fun to talk about.