RK ARCHIVE - Barker v. Galligan

OldTimers v. Newbies
There were a large number of new registrations during the Sullivan v. Vanderhye contest and the same occurred for this contest. We believe this is an indicator of how well a candidate can rally his (or her) supporters for a focused effort, such as this vote. But an online poll isn't the same as the tough work of campaigning or getting voters to the real polls. So the question is how well this online rallying effort translates to getting a sustained support from volunteers and how well it translates to getting out the vote when it counts.

From the time the poll opened at noon Wednesday RK had 348 new registrations. Of those, 268 voted (77%). This is a minor surprise that has little to do with the vote - I actually expected a higher percentage of new registrations to be specifically for the poll. That's 80 new registrations in two days to join the RK community - wow.

There were 153 votes cast by the Oldtimers - accounting for 36.4% of the total. So the Newbies, the ones who arguably registered just to support their candidate, had roughly a 2 to 1 advantage in number of votes cast.

Of the 268 Newbies who did vote, the breakout was as follows:
Galligan 148 55.2%
Barker 118 44.0%
None 2 0.8%
Minor surprise number 2 - that two people registered just to say they thought there should be no endorsement. Obviously neither candidate encouraged their supporters to do such a thing. Good for you two.

Of the 153 Oldtimers who voted, the breakout was as follows:
Galligan 86 56.2%
Barker 62 40.5%
None 5 3.3%

Unlike the Sullivan/Vanderhye contest, both the Newbies and the Oldtimers split their vote in nearly identical percentages.

While there is no official RK endorsement, Greg Galligan and his supporters showed strength with the results of this poll. Pulling the Newbie vote is an indicator of breadth of support - Galligan was not only able reach out to more supporters, but those supporters actually took action on his behalf. And the Oldtimers are part of a community that has many politically involved members - the people who will be working hard to get their candidate elected both online and offline.

For George Barker, the game isn't over but he's clearly fallen behind in the online/blogging segment of the population. And if the Webb/Miller primary is an indicator, the online community will have considerable influence over the ultimate outcome. It will be interesting to see how, if at all, this result influences the Barker campaign's strategy. Will he try to win back the online community or focus more on the "offline" community?

To echo what's been said before, both candidates are strong representatives of the Democratic and Progressive ideals we support here. Either will be a good candidate to take on O'Brien this fall. And whoever does win the nomination next month, that candidate will be fully backed by RK.

Comments

Very interesting analysis (Draft Me Please - 5/18/2007 2:44:31 PM)

This was a lot of fun, and I am overwhelmingly pleased with the result, both that my candidate of choice won, and that generally there was such a broad mobilization here in the progressive netroots. Let's keep spreading the brand and make sure that we all get behind the nominee on June 13th (Galligan I hope! :-P)

All the credit (brimur - 5/18/2007 2:52:22 PM)

All the credit for this large and broad victory goes to the candidate himself- Greg Galligan. His supporters, including myself, definitely worked very hard to spread the word about this poll, but all because we were so inspired by the toughness and leadership Greg has exhibited. A lot of people have doubted Greg over the last few months - particularly those with titles. But Greg has proven over and over that his will to keep fighting is just too great. It's an understatement to say that he's a guy I'd be proud to have in the State Senate.

And the campaign continues!

Again, PLEASE (Draft Me Please - 5/18/2007 3:49:12 PM)

Please stop making age an issue in this campaign. Greg is the only candidate in this primary to know firsthand what it's like to craft and shepard bills through a legislative body. He is the only candidate in this primary in a densely military district who has served in the armed forces. He is the only candidate who has RUN in this entire district. His experience does not come from boards and commissions, it comes from his desire to take action and make things better for people in Virginia and in this country.

Personally, I have absolutely no interest (Lowell - 5/18/2007 4:56:18 PM)

in how any particular individual voted, even if it's theoretically possible to know (again, that's a question for Eric). What I AM interested in is whether a lot of "newbies" are coming on the site to vote for one candidate or the other, and whether there's a difference with the "old timers" in voting patterns. Sort of like an exit poll, just to find out broad trends...

Yes, I can (Eric - 5/18/2007 5:08:23 PM)

get to all voting data. No, I have not looked up individual voting data on anyone for any poll.

I addressed this issue with Ben before our first poll... While the data is stored in our database, only Lowell and I can get to it, and of the two of us, only I know SQL.

We will not be divulging individual voting information. Ever. Only aggregate analysis, like you see here, will be discussed.

The reality of pretty much any online poll (not just RK) is that the person conducting the poll can get detailed voting data. The question of whether or not you vote depends on how much you trust the website giving the poll. It's that simple. If you don't believe what I wrote above, don't vote.

The Real Question (johnson - 5/19/2007 9:25:43 AM)

Can you tell how the votes would add up for voters that will be able to vote in the primary. It is obvious that there were people from all over the state voting, but how many were really constituents - they are the ones that count. So these numbers don't really mean anything - we will see at the polls what really counts.

I Agree and Disagree (Eric - 5/19/2007 9:52:44 AM)

To your point that only voters living in that district will count on primary day, I agree. These RK votes, and many of the voters, won't count on that day.

I disagree in that this is a show of relative strength. Both candidates were presumably reaching out to A)The entire RK community and B)Their entire support base. Neither of these groups have well defined borders and the fact that Galligan pulled stronger support from both is a relative indicator of overall strength.

How much that relative indicator relates to "real world" votes on June 12 is yet to be seen. That's the big question I posed above and I'm looking forward to finding out if there's any correlation between the two.

And finally, we don't have data about where RK users live so I have no way of breaking out the data in terms of RK voters living in the 39th district.

The Vote is Over, Now See the Candidates in Person (Glant - 5/18/2007 10:15:35 PM)

This Sunday is the 6th annual Springfield District Democratic Committee Elephant Smoke and Roast, a chance to see both Greg and George in person. The Smoke and Roast is rapidly becoming one of the most popular fund raising events each spring.

One of the featured events will be the SDDC Dumbo Dunk! Our special "Dunkees" this year include former Senator George "Maccaca" Allen, Karl "the Consigliari" Rove, Dick "Shotgun" Cheney, and (of course) George "the Deciderer" Bush. Come early to see if you will be the first one to splash one of our guest Dunkees.

The Smoke and Roast will be from 3 to 6 at the home of Seth and Sharon Stark, 10106 Community Drive, Fairfax Station. Tickets are $30 in advance, $35 at the door. For more information, call Mark Itzkoff at 703 250-3846.

The menu this year includes specially barbequed pachyderm prepared for SDDC and our guests by Red, Hot and Blue.

In addition to George and Greg, some of the other officials and candidates expected to attend are Chairman Gerry Connolly, Delegate Brian Moran, Delegate Chuck Caputo, Delegate Dave Marsden, Mike McClanahan, Democratic candidate for Springfield Supervisor, Janet Oleszek, Democratic candidate for the 37th Virginia State Senate seat, Greg Galligan and George Barker, candidates for the Democratic Nomination for the 39th State Senate seat, Morris Meyers and Rex Simmons, candidates for the 40th House of Delegates seat, David Miller, candidate for Fairfax Clerk of Court, and Ramona Morrow, candidate for Fairfax County School Board.

Barker v. Galligan - Vote Analysis

Comments