AccuWeather: "We're in for a Rough Year" for Hurricanes

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/14/2007 4:51:24 PM

Well, this certainly isn't comforting:

AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi and his team expect this season's hurricanes and tropical storms to pose a far greater threat to lives and property than last year's, with significantly more storms striking the U.S.

In the AccuWeather.com 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast released recently, Bastardi warns that six or seven storms will strike the U.S. coast... The majority of these landfalls are projected for the Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape Hatteras, N.C., with the center of the bull's-eye on Florida.

AccuWeather.com forecasts 13 or 14 total storms in the Atlantic basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes of category 3 or greater.

Bastardi, who in March of last year correctly forecast that the Gulf Coast would get "minimal" attention by that season's hurricanes, said that this year's indicators all point to the Gulf being at much higher risk for destructive tropical weather than last year.

Not surprisingly, U.S. crude oil futures prices rose today for the first time in over a week (to $62.26 a barrel for June WTI), given that the Gulf Coast is so important for U.S. oil production and refining.  In other words, a "rough year" for Gulf Coast hurricanes will also likely mean a "rough year" at the gas pump.  Maybe time to trade in the gas guzzler for a hybrid?


Comments



Half of the story (Friend - 5/14/2007 10:34:15 PM)
What you have omitted is the other half of this story.  In addition to higher crude oil prices, weather uncertainty brings higher natural gas prices, because 90% of the natural gas used on the East Coast comes from . . . the Gulf of Mexico.

It seems simple to "trade in" that gas guzzler -- but they don't go away, someone else buys them.  And though the trade-in is worth some money, a homeowner on fixed income can't afford to switch out their natural gas furnace or cooktop just because commodity prices rise.  They also don't get a trade-in for those.

And even if they did -- would we want them to convert to oil heat or heat pumps (in regions where they even work) just so they can burn more juice, which mainly comes from coal these days, but increasingly comes from natural gas? (I know -- you want us all on solar, but we like hot showers and warm meals even on days when the sun don't shine.)

Your solutions seem so simplistic but in fact the conversion to cleaner energy will take a generation, if not more.  And in the meantime, your refusal to acknowledge, for example, that the 1990s Clean Air Act created a huge demand for natural gas and drove up heating prices for homeowners because Congress would not open up new supply, well, wrap your "little man" arguments round the Flag all you want, in the end you simply don't care about average people.



I'm not sure who you're adressing here (Lowell - 5/15/2007 9:38:43 AM)
Obviously, natural gas would also be affected by a severe hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico.  Which is why we need strong government incentives for people to insulate their homes, switch to more fuel efficient cars and appliances, have affordable mass transit options, etc., etc.