7. Virginia: Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) continues to stir the pot about a potential 2008 race against Sen. John Warner (R). Our guess? If Warner (John) decides to run for a 6th term, then Warner (Mark) won't challenge him, preferring to wait until 2009 for another run for governor. If Sen. Warner retires -- and the paltry $500 (that is not a typo) that he raised in the first quarter certainly will ramp up that speculation -- then expect Mark Warner to jump in the race immediately. If the seat comes open, it would move quickly up the Line, as Mark Warner remains very popular and Republicans would likely have a primary between some combination of Rep. Tom Davis, former Sen. George Allen and state Attorney general Bob McDonnell. (Previous ranking: 7)
Overall, based on Cillizza's and my own analysis, I'd say we're looking at the following Democratic pickup possibilities in 2008: Colorado (high probability), New Hampshire (high probablity IF former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen runs), Virginia (high probability IF Mark Warner runs), Minnesota (is Al Franken seriously not kidding?), Oregon (Draft DeFazio!), New Mexico (can we say "attorney firings scandal?"). That's a potential pickup of 5-6 seats for the Democrats, but will Republicans pick up any Democratic seats to offset? I'd say not likely, but keep an eye on Louisiana and POSSIBLY South Dakota or Iowa.