Gallup: Blue America, Blue Virginia?

By: Lowell
Published On: 1/31/2007 8:50:48 PM

According to Gallup,  America appears to be turning Democratic "blue":

Based on their 2006 averages in leaned party identification, Gallup classifies 33 states as Democratic in orientation (the state showed a statistically significant advantage in Democratic leaning in 2006) and six as Republican (the state showed a statistically significant advantage in Republican leaning in 2006). The remaining 10 states (including District of Columbia, but not including Alaska and Hawaii since Gallup does not interview in those states) are considered competitive, because the leading party's advantage is within the margin of error for that state's data. The overall results show a net gain of six states for Democrats and a net loss of six for Republicans from 2005. The shift since 2003 has been dramatic, when Republican-leaning states outnumbered Democratic-leaning states 20-14.

How about Virginia?  According to Gallup data for 2006, 51% of Virginians are either "Democratic" or "Lean Democratic."  Only 41% are either "Republican" or "Lean Republican."  The rest are "independent" or "No Lean."  Virginia's 10-point "Democratic"/"Leans Democratic" advantage puts the Commonwealth ahead of Pennsylvania (+8) and Wisconsin (+6) in the "blue" column.  Virginia ranks just 1 point behind California (+11) in "blueness." 

Yeah, I'm skeptical about this data, but Gallup is a respected polling company so I wouldn't discount it completely.  One complication is that Virginia Democrats are almost certainly more conservative on social issues than Democrats in states like Rhode Island, Vermont and California.  So, being a Democrat here doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as it does there.  Still, I think the Gallup data is encouraging, especially combined with wins in recent years by Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb (plus, gains in the General Assembly).  So what do you think, is Virginia turning "blue?"


Comments



Absolutely (Newport News Dem - 1/31/2007 10:12:11 PM)
We are an officially purple state and if we can get a non-partisan redistricting bill, we will take back the general assembly.

Only with creative district lines can a city like Newport News with around 57% democratic performance be represented by 3 GOP delegates and 1 Democrat.



Not Purple (DanG - 1/31/2007 10:19:39 PM)
I'd say light Red.  I still say Republicans have the advantage in this state.


Whatever. (Kenton - 1/31/2007 10:30:18 PM)
Red state/blue state is a load of hooey. With the exception of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, I suppose (A Republican has not carried a county in MA since 1988 and RI since 1982), no state votes as a solid bloc.

I believe that there are red counties and blue counties, but too many states are amalgams. Virginia's a prime example. We have San Francisco on the Potomac attached to the district of Frank Hargrove. We are Massachusetts, Kentucky and Georgia rolled into one.



Polls only go so deep - it's election results that matter (Shawn - 1/31/2007 10:59:59 PM)
Let's face it Democrats only hold 3 of 11 U.S. House seats and in the 2006 congressional races Virginia's Republican party motivated an average of 111,000 voters per district while we Democrats were only able to get an average of 86,000 per district to the polls.

We left 2 district totally uncontested (only 10 were left open nationwide) and only VA-02 was a targeted race.

Like 2005 when we won a Governor's race, Democrats can rejoice in Jim Webb's top of the ticket Senate seat but overall we've got a lot of work to do to turn Virginia Blue. 



Good points. (Lowell - 1/31/2007 11:18:41 PM)
Gallup's numbers appear to be a bit odd.


Yes Thank bush-cheney (norman swingvoter - 1/31/2007 11:22:28 PM)
I also have trouble believing this poll.  However, what are the facts.  The republicans took over with the contract for America which promised responsible government and a new period of conservative enlightenment with compassionate conservatism.  Where are we now.  The republicans descended into corruption.  With the arrival of bush-cheney, all concept of fiscal responsibility was gone.  The republicans blinded followed these incompetent clowns into 2 wars.  Instead of being treated as liberators, we now have 25000 plus casualties and growing.  Instead of using Iraq oil money to pay for the war, we are now up to $400,000,000,000 and the cost is increasing by $8,000,000,000 per month.  bush and cheny in total arrogance claim that they don't need to follow the advice of anyone and can do whatever they want, as we are drawn closer and close to the brink.  Thinking Virginians are finally starting to wake up and hold someone accountable.  We will know when the Democrats carry the state for president.


Skeptical about the Virginia numbers (JPTERP - 2/1/2007 2:00:38 AM)
Webb dominated Allen with Dems, had a substantial advantage with independents, but still only won by 9,000+ votes.  According to the Gallup numbers Webb could have won even without strong independent support.  That doesn't seem right.

Virginia is competitive; it may even be purple.  But it definitely isn't a light shade of blue.



RedState/BlueState...I'm Color Blind! (Flipper - 2/1/2007 2:08:18 AM)
(Flipper holds his breath and turns BLUE!)

Virginia is obviously a purple state these days, based on the election results over the last six years in statewide races.  While Virginia is still resisting the urge to cast its electoral votes for a Dem presidential candidate, it will eventually happen, if not in 2008, in 2012. 

I firmly believe that Gallup's numbers are the result of the mood of the country these days, as well as the mood of voters in Virginia.  It's not so important where the state is now but where it will be in 2008.  Key demographic changes that have been helping the Dems win statewide are going to continue moving in the Dems direction.  More folks from the Northeast and Mid-West who hold much more liberal views than traditional Virginian's, are continuing to move into the state in droves.  Accoding to the 2000 census, Virginia was the number one destination for African-American's who were moving back to the south from large Northeastern and Mid-Western cities.  The trick is to continue building the party from the grass roots up, get these new Virginian's registered to vote and turn them out on election day.  The state party has got to do a better job of planning and funding a GOTV effort in EVERY election!

NOVA will provide bigger and bigger margins for Dems as time goes by.  The trick statewide is to continue racking up big numbers in the large cities of Hampton Roads as well, limit losses in Virginia Beach, rack up big margins in Richmond while limiting losses in the surrounding suburbs, which is not as difficult these days, as Dems have begun carrying counties like Henrico, which was sooooooo Republican for so long.  Even in Chesterfiled County, results for Dems keep getting better as time goes by.  Of course, the big problem in the Richmond area is Hanover County.  It is still growing rapidly but it still is as Republican as ever!

So lets do it - turn it BLUE! 



Flipper (Gordie - 2/1/2007 8:34:13 AM)
I have to agree with you. I believe every state is color blind. Gerrymandering may make a state look Red or Blue, but it is still GOTV. This state, country has and will probably always be 1/3 Democrat, 1/3 Republican and 1/3 Moderate swing voter. The state wide races prove this theroy and it boils down to who presents themselves as the best candidate and how fast they respond to swiftboating.

With the internet, could it be that someday the entire state votes for all Congressman, Delegates and State Senators instead of each District voting for their own? Should that ever happen, it would again prove the 1/3 theroy.

When I started attending the NCDC meetings, there were about 13 people attending. The last 11 meetings there has been a constant increase in attendance. The Jan.30th meeting had over 50 people in attendance. Only around 4 were new comers to the county, which disproves the theroy we are changing because of the out of staters. The state of the State and the state of the Nation has awoken a sleeping Giant.

Mark Warner started the change. George W. Bush continued that change in 2004, then Tim Kaine continued it further in 2005. And as long as the Virgil Goode's and Frank Hargrove's continue to speak as they do, the trend will continue. Isn't it amazing how voters change when the see the true color inside one's heart. As the House of Delegates continue there BS the change will continue. A true American knows that it costs to support an honest Government and will pay their fair share. And the heck with always anti this and anti that.



I am skeptical about VA="bluish" (thegools - 2/1/2007 12:13:01 PM)
Like the earlier comment I have a hard time buying into this strict Red/Blue model.  Virginia is both red and blue, but it depends on what level of government you look at.
  If you look on the state delegate /senate levels, we are blood red.  If we look at the state-wide races in VA we are true blue the last few times for GOv and senate.  However, if we are talking about presidential contests, VA has not voted for the Democratic candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.  no state has gone longer than Virginia in refusing Democratic Presidential candidates.
  we'll see wher ethe chips fall, but I would imagine that presidential trend will be hard to buck (but not impossible if the stars are right).