A new poll by Diageo/Hotline (Conducted 1/11-14; surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%) has some fascinating results. (note: to view the entire poll requires a subscription to Hotline or Diageo...)
1) On the "generic" 2008 White House ballot question, 44% of voters say they'd go for the Democrat, with just 26% choosing the Republican. That's an 18-point margin for "Generic Democrat." Unfortunately for the Democrats, they don't have anyone in the field yet named "Generic." Which brings us to the next fascinating result...
2) In head-to-head matchups of actual, non-generic candidates, the Republicans win all of them except for one. Thats' right, it's McCain over Clinton (48%-39%), McCain over Obama (43%-38%), and McCain over Edwards (45%-35%). Rudy Guiliani beats Clinton (48%-40%) and Obama (41%-38%). Finally, in a lone victory for non-generic Democrats, John Edwards manages a 1-point edge against Giuliani, 41%-40%. Obviously, there are other potential nominees, such as Al Gore for the Dems and Mitt Romney for the Repubs, but they aren't polled.
3) Speaking of Romney, the Diageo/Hotline poll indicates that Americans aren't too favorably inclined towards Mormonism, with 27% viewing it favorably and 39% unfavorably. That's not good news for Romney, but, according to this poll, he's lucky (politically) that he's not a Muslim. That's right, Virgil Goode would love the results of this poll, which indicate that only 18% of Americans view Islam favorably, while 41% of Americans view it unfavorably (among Republicans, it's even worse, with 11% favorable and 58% unfavorable).
4) The other two religions polled are Judaism and Catholicism, with the results indicating that these are two highly popular religions. Judaism clocks in among Americans at 58% favorable/11% unfavorable, with Catholism at 58% favorable/21% unfavorable. Not sure what Virginia Del. Frank Hargrove would think about those supposed "Christ killers" being so popular, but there you have it.
So what does this all mean? Most importantly, Democrats can and SHOULD win the White House in 2008. However, they have to find a candidate who's as close to "generic" as possible. Either that, or they have to do a number on McCain and Giuliani by Election Day 2008. Alternatively, the Democrats can pray for Republicans to nominate someone like, oh I dunno, Jim Gilmore? How about the Newt-ster? Ha.
On the religion questions, I'm not quite sure what to make of my fellow Americans' views. How deep do their "unfavorable" feelings go towards Islam and, to a lesser extent, Mormonism? Why is this the case? Will it significantly affect their vote for President, given that Mitt Romney is Mormon and Barack Obama's father was Muslim? I don't know, but I certainly hope that religion has no negative bearing on anyone's choice for President in 2008. That's simply not what this country is about.