In 2002, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira wrote the Emerging Democratic Majority. In it they argued that several states, including Virginia, were going to lean Democratic in a couple of years due to demographic changes. With the recent victories of Sen. Elect - Jim Webb and Gov. Tim Kaine, we have started to make that vision a reality. However, we still have a lot of work to do.
In 2002, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira wrote the Emerging Democratic Majority. In it they argued that several states, including Virginia, were going to lean Democratic in a couple of years due to demographic changes. With the recent victories of Sen. Elect - Jim Webb and Gov. Tim Kaine, we have started to make that vision a reality. However, we still have a lot of work to do.
In 2005, Tim Kaine won the governorship, but both Leslie Byrne and Creigh Deeds lost their races to be Lt. Governor and Atty. General, respectively. We all remember how close Creigh Deeds came to being Atty. General (less than 500 votes), but we sometimes forget how close Leslie Byrne came to being Lt. Governor. She lost by only 1 percentage point and 33,000 votes.
This year we continued the path to a Democratic majority by electing Jim Webb. However, all eight Republican congressmen were reelected, and Republicans hold a 23-17 majority in the Virginia Senate and 57-40-3 majority in the Virginia House. We need to work towards a Democratic majority.
Over the next two years, I propose that the Democratic Party and Raising Kaine should have four goals. These goals are:
1. Run a candidate in each Virginia House and Senate district in 2007. In 2005, we left 41 (out of 100) Virginia House districts without a Democratic candidate. In 2003, we left 43 Virginia House and 14 (out of 40) Virginia Senate districts unopposed. You canGÇÖt win if you donGÇÖt run. Furthermore, not running candidates in every district hurts the Party because it impedes getting your message out. It also hurts us because running in every district puts pressure on ultra-conservative Republican legislators to listen to what the populace says. If no one runs against them, they can put up hateful, harmful, and corporate legislation and we canGÇÖt stop them, now or in the future. Just like Howard Dean and the national Democratic Party has vowed to run in every state, we must run in every district. I propose that Raising Kaine maintain a list of every Democrat running in every Virginia House and Senate race in 2007. If no one is running for a district, we can work with the Virginia blogosphere and the local Democratic parties to find someone and contest every state House and Senate district in Virginia.
2. Run a candidate in every US House District in Virginia in 2008. This year we left two Republicans unopposed (4th district, 6th district). They were two of only 10 districts nationwide we left unopposed. By not even putting up a token candidate, we weaken both statewide candidates and the local parties. Not competing in the most conservative districts of Virginia deprives us of a Democratic base there, and is a serious drag on building a Virginia Democratic majority.
3. Increase Black turnout to match Black population percentage. Currently, Blacks are about 20% of VirginiaGÇÖs population, while they made up 16% of the 2006 Virginia electorate according to CNN exit polls. According to CNN, 85% of Blacks voted for Jim Webb (across the nation about 90% of Blacks vote for Democrats). If the Virginia statewide electorate had been 20% Black in the 2005 election, we likely would have won all statewide offices (hard to tell without exit polls). In general, raising Black turnout would make Virginia Democrats would be near unbeatable in statewide elections.
This suggests two means of action. The first is mass voter registration and turnout efforts in heavily Black areas of Virginia. The second is ending voter disfranchisement. In states like Virginia that disfranchise felony offenders, about one out of every four Black men are denied the right to vote (http://www.demos.org...). In the case of Virginia, if you are convicted of a felony, you cannot vote for the rest of your life unless the governor gives you back the right to vote. Gov. Kaine could issue an executive order to give the vote to everyone who has been convicted of a felony and has served his or her time in prison. We need to write him and ask him to give those whoGÇÖve served their time their vote. ItGÇÖs the right thing to do, both morally and politically.
4. We need to increase turnout in all areas that support Democratic candidates. I suggest that we set a goal of increasing turnout by five percentage points in any precinct that votes at least 60-40 Democratic. This is a tough goal, but we could meet it if we start now by strengthening local Democratic parties throughout Virginia and doing more voter registration and turnout activities in Democratic communities.
If we meet the four goals above, the Democratic Party of Virginia will be unstoppable. WeGÇÖll win all statewide races and take over the Virginia House and Senate. ItGÇÖll take time, but we can start today. Since these arenGÇÖt extremely expensive goals, they are goals that the Virginia blogosphere can achieve in concert with local Democratic parties and other organizations. LetGÇÖs get started and turn Virginia blue!
"On the same note why should the GOP support DC having a vote in congress? It would just guaruntee a few more dems in congress."
And, Kaine could simply sign a mass granting of voting rights to all felons who have been at least four years out of prison come November 2007.
VA can save money, increase voter turnout, and insure election verification by eliminating electronic voting machines period/
Follow the Washington State example and MAIL BALLOTS to registered voters and allow them a two-three week window to return their votes via mail or at secure drop boxes in the libraries and at city hall.....
This would do the trick cheaply, easily, and effectively.....and the Washington system takes care of fraud with a handwriting verification system.....it's really quite grand...
Buzz...Buzz
I, too, wish our party were more willing to embrace candidates with little to lose, instead of waiting for "serious" candidates to commit to running in a district that will be the last in the state to go Democratic (if ever).
It costs a good million dollars to mount a real Congressional campaign, making candidate recruiting a chicken and egg matter in the 6th. Take a look at the Republican performance in Augusta and Rockingham counties. Augusta has a good committee, hard working, but they're swimming against a strong current, in place for decades, that will take more than a few cycles to overcome.
There are signs that we'll have a "serious", party-blessed candidate in 2008. That'll be good, building stronger connections among the nineteen or so committees in the district, and setting a floor for our Senate and Presidential candidates. But the Shenandoah Valley isn't going to change its political nature in the next 24 months.
Communist Poland was pretty harsh and, if you were convicted and jailed, all your "citizen rights" (like voting) were immediately suspended. But, once you "paid the debt to society" (did your stint in the pokey), they were -- as automatically -- restored (you couldn't vote while on parole; that was still considered part of the sentence). The *only* exception, as far as I know, was if someone was sent up for treason; traitors forfeited their "citizen rights" forever. Though, to be sure, the concept of "traitor" was much broader there than it is here :) You didn't have to be a spy; people like Lay and Skilling -- the guys involved in the Enron fiasco -- would have been considered traitors also (based on some cases of non-spy-traitors I'd observed as a teenager)
Of course, we did not have plea-bargaining and we had "codex" rather than "case" law... That does change the dynamics a whole lot.