State Board of Elections Puts Webb in the Lead!

By: Lowell
Published On: 11/8/2006 1:37:20 AM

According to the State Board of Elections 12:26 AM update, Jim Webb is now AHEAD of George Allen by 1,798 votes.  That's 1,148,750 to 1,146,952, or 49.44% to 49.36%.  Uncounted absentee ballots remain in heavily Democratic Arlington and Fairfax Counties, plus also-heavily-Democratic Richmond City and Fairfax City.  What else is left?  Basically, 3 precincts in Loudoun County (slight lean towards Webb), 3 precincts in Prince William County (pretty much neck and neck), 1 precinct in Virginia Beach (small edge to Allen), and a couple more precincts in Richmond City (big edge to Webb). 

In sum, George Allen is in deep, deep trouble.

(UPDATE by Rob: Ok, I lied, one more update from me. The SBE now has with 99.35% reporting Webb leading by 1876 votes or .08%)

(UPDATE by Rob: Tightening - 99.47% reporting, Webb leading by 1524 votes or .07%)


Comments



also 2 precincts in James City County n/t (teacherken - 11/8/2006 1:39:11 AM)


A little addition (Chris from ASL - 11/8/2006 1:39:52 AM)
I still see a pair of sites in James City County plus an Isle of Wight County site.  The Isle of Wight site I see making a little dent.  Let's pull this one in James City too.


Good point. (Lowell - 11/8/2006 1:40:51 AM)
A very small dent.


didn't Kaine carry James City County? n/t (teacherken - 11/8/2006 2:19:31 AM)


and... (Chris from ASL - 11/8/2006 1:41:32 AM)
We're still missing absentees in Halifax.


That's got to be a very small #... (Lowell - 11/8/2006 1:43:20 AM)
I would think.


but (Chris from ASL - 11/8/2006 1:44:30 AM)
That makes a dink not a dent ;-)


tomorrow (S. Becker - 11/8/2006 1:45:05 AM)
We are going to work EVEN HARDER starting tomorrow to keep this lead!


military? (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 1:49:36 AM)
Anybody know if those ballots are counted?

Also, so are they going to quit and start back up in the morning?

I'm very hopeful but I will feel much better if by end of count 1 Webb is 5K ahead or so to be frank.



what in the hell is canvassing (Doug Garnett-Deakin - 11/8/2006 2:08:45 AM)
before recount?

Ow.



Webb (mkfox - 11/8/2006 2:12:43 AM)
just said on CNN, "I admire what George Allen said that we're a representative democracy and we argue and we vote. But we won!"  He's got testicular fortitude, I'll give him that!


yup (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 2:17:47 AM)
biggest mistake on 2000 was Dems didn't immediately claim victory.


You guys deserve a hearty round of applause (David M - 11/8/2006 2:28:05 AM)
Way to go! Save your energy for the recount.

This is a momentous night for Virginia politics.



tonight (Arlington Mike - 11/8/2006 2:33:37 AM)
This will be the most terrifying night of non-sleep I get.


Was Hoping for a Good Night's Sleep (d'moore - 11/8/2006 2:41:32 AM)
Damn! Was hoping for a few thousand more before turning in. Stupid MSNBC had Arnold on instead of Webb's aceptance speach. Wish we could have been there! Looking forward to the video tomorrow.
I  wonder which precincts in Loudoun weren't in. We had huge turnout here and lots of positive people for Democrats.


Go to bed (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 2:45:03 AM)
Honestly this is going into a recount.

But, the way I see it is Webb won.  The key is to not let them steal it in a recount.

I'm looking at the precincts outstanding and unless there is a hidden box of ballots stuffed somewhere marked "Allen's extras" I just don't see how he can pull it out

counting errors with this kind of gear (not getting the count in correctly is another thing!) @ 0.01% it just isn't probable that great of a counting error would occur with optical and e-voting

(we'd have to find "lost" machines and so on in other words).



Here's an interesting thought (madgranny - 11/8/2006 3:06:01 AM)
from Bob Cesca on huffingtonpost......."However, if the margin remains in Webb's favor, do you really believe Allen will call for a recount which could further expose some of his campaign's electoral foul play? Just sayin'"


lol (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 3:10:11 AM)
well, the voter intimidation should be pursued regardless...
that was outrageous and if it turns out to be linked to the Allen campaign that will cost him a lot of $$$ already.

I just don't believe regardless of what Allen does...
officially it sounds like a slug fest but I'm also hoping Democrats learned alot from 2000...



My automated predictor (Steve Nelson - 11/8/2006 2:49:13 AM)
Here's a link to my automated predictor:

http://labs.webapper...

It updates every 10 minutes with new predictions.

Steve Nelson



Cool ! (loboforestal - 11/8/2006 2:54:10 AM)
I like the results, too !!!


SURGING! (JPTERP - 11/8/2006 2:53:31 AM)
Webbs lead is up to 5,000 with 99.59% of precincts reporting.  10 more to go.


HELL YEAH! (Steve Nelson - 11/8/2006 3:04:42 AM)
It's going to go up even higher! Look: http://labs.webapper...

Steve



I think I'll stay up (libra - 11/8/2006 2:59:21 AM)
and see this count through, at least as far as the "straight count" is concerned (the absentees and the provisionals.. No telling when *those* will get resolved). I can't *stand* this see-saw of quarter percentage differences every few minutes.

And I *still* want to wring Ms Parker's scrawny neck.

And I still don't understand why Allen won't just concede... He was so bored in the Senate, he said; not enough action, he said; "wish I had been born in Iowa", he said...



Absentees (JPTERP - 11/8/2006 3:03:37 AM)
Libra, it's my understanding that these total ARE the absentee ballots--I believe that's the reason for the long delay in tallying the remaining votes.


Webb's opening up a late lead. (loboforestal - 11/8/2006 3:00:22 AM)
The 5000 vote lead should hold up even after recount.

WEBB WINS !!!



yeah (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 3:08:06 AM)
that isn't 26 votes or 153, I just don't believe it will switch.


It's sure going to be nice having Jim in the Senate. (loboforestal - 11/8/2006 3:13:09 AM)
It's going to nice having a guy that's going to stick up for the working man.  TurnVaBlue, big congrats to people like you !!!


Lobo (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 3:20:54 AM)
Hey, back yourself on the back, virtual huge to You!  This is also a huge victory for working professionals who are under attack.

I also think this core group of people are so bright, politically aware, very "common sense" politics for the
middle class America we probably all grew up in and cherish,
to start with a wave in a puddle and build into a tsunami.

Truly.



Don't go to be yet! (Kagro X - 11/8/2006 3:03:55 AM)
ALERT!

Someone needs to call WTOP and set them straight!

They're replaying analysis recorded earlier in the evening by Mark Plotkin that was given when Allen still led by 20,000 votes. So essentially, WTOP listeners are now hearing (without  any information indicating that the information is old) analysis saying Allen is the presumptive winner, and that the Democrats' Senate hopes are evaporating. But neither is true.

It's going to be essential that Webb be able to occupy the ground of presumptive winner tomorrow, and if WTOP keeps playing this, it's really going to confuse the situation.

Please get someone on the phone to them!



try calling the campaign (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 3:11:42 AM)
We're now entering the spin zone and the legal war frankly.

If that's a GOP "like" radio station I wouldn't be surprised.



E-mailed WTOP. (Kagro X - 11/8/2006 4:42:54 AM)
They're now noting after playing these clips that the interviews are old, and the circumstances have changed, with Webb posting a lead.


PULLING AWAY LIKE A CHAMP! (JPTERP - 11/8/2006 3:05:46 AM)
Webb is now up 7,811 with 99.68% of the votes counted!


CNN just said ... (loboforestal - 11/8/2006 3:09:27 AM)
only 27 votes changed in last VA recount.


RE: Remaining precincts (JPTERP - 11/8/2006 3:19:38 AM)
It isn't a done deal yet, but it's getting pretty darn close.

The remaining counties are Loudon (4%), Isle of Wight (8%), Fairfax (1%), Fairfax City (14%).  If the remaining numbers match-up with the trend of the previous reported tallies, we're looking at about 8,400 more votes to be tallied, with a little over 53% breaking for Webb. 

Loudon:  2893 Total (1,446 Webb)
Isle of Wight: 1200 Total (670 Webb)
Fairfax:  3321 Total (1860 Webb)
Fairfax City:  1040 Total (580 Webb)



I have gone thru (madgranny - 11/8/2006 3:10:44 AM)
every emotion in my repertoire tonight...some I didn't know I had. This is the most bizarre, delicious, exquisite and nerve-wracking election night I've EVER had. And Webb WILL be victorious.


Hell Yes! (George Allen's Noose - 11/8/2006 3:14:05 AM)
Watch Jim's victory speech:
http://www.wdbj7.com...


Wow (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 3:29:49 AM)
Well, he didn't mess around, Good for him to just come out and claim victory!

They're psyched so clearly we should be.

Very nice speech!



Webb is up by 8,000 votes now, and the absentees will put (GeorgeAllenVa - 11/8/2006 3:45:31 AM)
him further ahead. He did exactly the right thing by claiming victory. Let sore-loser George Allen try to take it away from him; he'll only fail, as he has with everything else he's attempted this year. We may well be headed for a recount, but Webb will win handily.
  I will never forget the roar of voices and the surge of euphoria in the hotel ballroom just before midnight when CNN flashed the numbers showing Webb grabbing the lead for the first time. I had seen a few people in tears earlier, saying Webb had lost. I had been watching what precincts were outstanding on one of the many laptops in the ballroom--and it was clear to me it was going to tighten. Most of the votes missing were from Prince William County where Webb was sure to do well. Also missing until late were votes from Richmond and Norfolk where the inner-city precincts are always the last to report--and which were certain to go heavily Democratic given Allen's outspoken racism. Still, the night was an emotional roller coaster, and the surprise and thrill of Webb taking the lead and then widening it, followed by his victory speech, was beyond wonderful. I'm so glad I was able to be there and share it with the many volunteers and staffers I had worked with during the campaign--some of whom I hadn't even met until last night.
  A victory like this one is the sweetest kind. Every envelope we licked, every voter we dialed on the phone, every blog we posted, every piece of literature we handed to a voter or left on a doorstop may have been what won this election. Every hour spent working on the campaign when we could have been doing other things was worthwhile. We really did, together with Virginia voters, change history. At this hour, Montana and Missouri will determine to what degree, but the signs are good.
  Jim Webb, I hope, will be a wonderful senator, and George Allen will enjoy his retirement, pulling the wings off black flies--or whatever. I guess I'll have to retire my pseudonym. But I will never forget the experiences of working on this campaign--nor all the wonderful people that I met.
  Steve