Survey USA: Webb 52%, Allen 44%

By: Lowell
Published On: 11/6/2006 1:04:37 PM

This just in:

Margin of Sampling Error for this question = -¦ 3.7%

If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?

44%  Allen (R)
52%  Webb (D)

2%  Parker (IG)
1%  Other/Undecided

[UPDATE: Courtesy of Political Wire, "For those handicapping the contest: in 2005, a SurveyUSA poll in Virginia released one day before the Governor's election, showed Democrat Tim Kaine with a new and significant lead over Republican Jerry Kilgore. All previous polling from 6 pollsters had showed the race tied. The Democrat was elected Governor with 52% of the vote. Here, in 2006, in the Senate, it is certainly possible that the contest will be closer than SurveyUSA polling shows it, and Allen may still surprise. But the pattern, one year later, of an almost identical late break to the Democrat is striking enough to warrant mention here"]

Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign.  The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.


Comments



I'd give you a big kiss (PM - 11/6/2006 1:06:52 PM)
but I think it's illegal in Virginia


Well, the so-called "marriage amendment" (Lowell - 11/6/2006 1:09:32 PM)
is leading, but only with 42% a "certain yes." Another 36% are a "certain no," and the remaining 22% are "not certain."


LOL (PM - 11/6/2006 1:25:55 PM)
The percentages on the hate amendment are pretty heartening


Let's hope the 22% decide to (Eric - 11/6/2006 1:48:22 PM)
read the whole thing.  And if they can sort out the confusing wording the "No" has a chance.


It's Very Confusing (jackiehva - 11/6/2006 8:22:56 PM)
I read the whole darned thing and the person/people responsible for writing it should be sent to the School of Plain English.  I'm a college grad, an English major, and I had  to read it several times to figure it out.  I feel sorry for ESL speakers and the elderly who have to wade through the crap.  Was it written this way to confuse the voters??  It is important to read the whole "amendment."  I don't like it one bit and I'm voting NO!


Likely Voters- (Arlington Tom - 11/6/2006 1:20:23 PM)
It appears that polls in Virginia and elsewhere, are having a hard time predicting likely voters are opposed to registered voters. That's, in my opinion, the variance we seeing in these late polls. Happily, this is something we have control over. We need to get out the vote. An e-mail and call to friends- those less energized than those on this board- would be great!

As my grandparents said- If you want potatoes, pray with a hoe.



Susan looks good... (thaddaeus toad - 11/6/2006 1:30:06 PM)
I sure hope Susan looks good in black, 'cause her husband's political career is scheduled to be humanely euthanized tomorrow.


Are you kidding? (thegools - 11/6/2006 2:29:24 PM)
It won't be destroyed.  It just enters it's pupal stage, before blossoming into a giant lobbyist (still fluttering through the halls of congress.)


Be careful here-- (Leaves on the Current - 11/6/2006 2:39:20 PM)
My prediction?  It'll burrow into the woodwork like one of those 17-year cicadoas, in order to re-emerge in the governor's mansion in 2010.

Or it could very easily be back in the Senate in January--if we ease the pressure for a single second in these last hour!



wow (Rob - 11/6/2006 1:36:00 PM)
that's amazing. 


2005 redux (TEMANU - 11/6/2006 1:47:20 PM)
It is really remarkable how similiar this race is to Kaines race in 2005..I sense more enthusiam for Webb this year than i did for Kaine last year, as lot of my more liberal friends (my self included) were irritated by the campaign Kaine ran last year..i think this all bodes well for Webbs chances tommorrow.Certainly, he will trounce Allen in my hometown of Fredericksburg(city)


trend consistent with all except Gallup (teacherken - 11/6/2006 2:05:54 PM)
all movement in last week or so has been in Webb's direction, except in Gallup.


The only poll that counts happens tomorrow. (thegools - 11/6/2006 2:30:44 PM)
This one means nothing, neither do all the others.....except to give us hope and make us work harder.


Incredible! (adshubert - 11/6/2006 2:37:09 PM)
What a stunning number, but as we know it's only as good as our efforts to get the vote out.  Yesterday, in Lee District in Fairfax County we put out almost 10,000 door hangers on every single ID'd Democratic voter door in the district.  I was just stunned at the number of volunteers who showed up to help on a perfect fall day with Redskins-Cowboys on the tube.  Just amazing.  We are finishing it off today and then will have someone handing out ballots at each polling place.  Jim Webb knows that wars are ultimately won on the ground and we will concede not an inch of turf to the GOP.

Changing the VA hue to blue!



Rain Tomorrow (Tink - 11/6/2006 3:45:45 PM)

They are saying heavy rain for southern Virginia tomorrow.  Looks like from Richmond down -across the entire bottom on the state.

The Dems gotta find a way to get reluctant people to vote. 



ask 'em (Bubby - 11/6/2006 3:50:10 PM)
When you make your GOTV, ask the person if they need a ride, ask them if they need an umbrella, ask them if you can carry them to the door.  Ask them if you can drop your raincoat across every puddle between their door and the polling precinct.


Right on Bubby (Doug Garnett-Deakin - 11/6/2006 3:56:13 PM)
We got rides in SWVA if anyone needs them. I'll be offering tonight during phone banking.


Rainy day Tuesday (libra - 11/7/2006 1:02:11 AM)
It all depends on who's the bigger wimp, then, no? Or whose stakes are higher.

In Poland, we say: "I'm not (made of) sugar, I won't melt", and since I'm the utmost acid FMK9, a bit of rain won't stop me. Not from going to vote, not from standing in front of the poll station dispensing info (got my assignment today) and not from driving anyone who needs a ride (during hours other than the ones I'll be standing in front of the poll station). Left my name with the headquarters for that too.

The strangest thing... The "spray for bugs" (Orkin) guy came today, and during the usual chit-chat (how's your son, how's yours, etc), he said something about what a beautiful day we were having. I said something snarky about "yeah, but it's supposed to rain tomorrow. Doubtless, to stop us from going to vote. But I'm going anyway, even if it's rain of Flood proportions" (Yes, DH *did* tell me not to provoke people with political comments, but I can't help myself).

Much to my surprise, the guy responded with enthusiasm: "me too. We need some serious changes here, and the fake cowboy's gotta go". I didn't want to probe his reasons but I hope there'll be *many* similiar surprises tomorrow.



Fresh batch of Webb, Feder, and Vote No signs all along US-50 this morning (snolan - 11/6/2006 6:21:39 PM)
On my way into work this morning I noticed fresh (brand new) signs for all my favorite candidates along US-50 in front of people's homes - woo hoo!

I drove around the neighborhood last night a noticed more signs than I'd seen before.



Saw Someone Removing Signs (Oakton Dem - 11/6/2006 10:33:58 PM)
As I was driving home on Chainbridge Rd this evening, I saw someone running across the street in the dark to take out a "Macacas 4 Allen" sign that someone had planted in an Allen/Davis sign bloom in the median.  Then the guy stuck it in the back of an SUV waiting in a parking lot and drove off!  I didn't see the license plate, and didn't have a camera.

But does someone know why Jim Webb's chances on Tradesports has suddenly tanked??