I'll kick things off with my calls on the closer races and my district.
2nd - Kellam (D) vs Drake (R)
Like the Senate race, polls have fluctuated in this race, making it difficult to get a solid grasp on where voters stand. Combining a recent poll showing Drake ahead and my gut feeling Democrats won't take everything they could in Virginia, I'm going to give this one to Drake.
Drake wins 52% to 47%
10th - Feder (D) vs Wolf (R)
Feder has done very well outraising Wolf in the funds department and more importantly is in a Red District that is rapidly turning Blue. Especially in this time of great discontent with Republican leadership.
Feder wins in a close upset 50.5% to 49.5%
11th - Hurst (D) vs Davis (R)
Has the Davis camp lost it's mind? Regardless of what we know about the real Tom Davis, he is still widely regarded as a moderate in the 11th. But instead of running a moderate positive campaign highlighting his resume he has gone on a wacky smear campaign against Hurst. Did they decide being a moderate in NOVA is a bad thing?
Despite their best efforts to Kilgore themselves, I ultimately feel that Davis will retain his seat. But he will have taken himself down a notch or two by running an idiotic campaign when he didn't have to.
Furthermore, state Republican party officials will probably have more doubts about him after he wins by a much smaller margin than expected. In previous races (backwards from 2004 - 1996) Davis has beat his competitors by 22, 66 (midterm), 24, 66(midterm), 28. I'm picking Davis by 10 - A comfortable margin in the real world but a massive drop off from his previous victories.
Davis wins 55% to 45%
Senate - Webb (D) vs Allen (R)
There's too much here to go over it all. The short version: Allen has run a horrible campaign, he can't keep himself or his people under control, and he is up to his eyeballs in the misleadership of the Republicans in power. People are looking for a positive change and Webb is it. Despite the outlook of a close election for many weeks, I see a stronger than expected Webb win, ala Kaine.
Webb wins 52% to 47%
I really hope that Andy decides to give it another try next time. He's begun to build a name for himself and whenever people see him in person, they like him. Building enough support to overcome someone like Davis can't be done quickly and this year's campaign lays a solid foundation for Hurst to have a good shot at winning next time - whether Davis runs or not.
And finally, I'd really like to sheepishly approach Andy after the election and say "Congressman-elect, I blew that one". So here's to hoping, even though I don't think it will happen this year.
Feder/Wolf...a very close 50.1 to 48.8 Wolf win, that sets Feder up for a strong rematch in 2008.
Kellam/Drake...a very narrow Kellam victory, brought along by Webb's coattails 50.5/49.5
Webb/Allen...Allen is shut out, Webb 54...Allen 44...Gail Parker 2
Ballot Amendment Narrowly loses 50.01 to 49.99 (just my hope)
Goode breaks 60% v. Weed.
Wolfe wins by 4.
Davis wins by 10.
Drake wins by 4.
Right now I'll say Webb 50.5 - Allen 48.5 - Parker/other - 1.0. Long time still to go though.
wolf wins 56-44.
davis wins 56-42.
drake wins 52-48.
allen wins 52-48.
sure, i'm a republican. but i think those are all realistic numbers at this point - but who knows, anything can happen. drake is easily the closest congressional race here of the three. allen, i just think at the end of the day the conservative voters will come home for him. although i wouldn't be surprised one bit if webb pulls the upset.
as for davis/wolf...i think everybody here thinks the wolf race is closer than it's going to end up. and people are going to misconstrue davis only getting 55 as a sign of his weakness, which is anything but the case.
i saw on another thread somebody mentioned how webb needs to win by 10 (but he hopes 13) in nova to win the state. yeah right - try doubling those numbers. and, it's a stark possibility that he'll meet them.
regardless, i'm very interested to see how things unfold on tuesday.