In a New York Times story out today, the U.S. military is privately describing the Iraq situation as very bleak, heading towards chaos:
November 1, 2006
Military Charts Movement of Conflict in Iraq Toward Chaos
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 GÇö A classified briefing prepared two weeks ago by the United States Central Command portrays Iraq as edging toward chaos, in a chart that the military is using as a barometer of civil conflict.A one-page slide shown at the Oct. 18 briefing provides a rare glimpse into how the military command that oversees the war is trying to track its trajectory, particularly in terms of sectarian fighting.
The slide includes a color-coded bar chart that is used to illustrate an GÇ£Index of Civil Conflict.GÇ¥ It shows a sharp escalation in sectarian violence since the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, and tracks a further worsening this month despite a concerted American push to tamp down the violence in Baghdad.
In fashioning the index, the military is weighing factors like the ineffectual Iraqi police and the dwindling influence of moderate religious and political figures, rather than more traditional military measures such as the enemyGÇÖs fighting strength and the control of territory.