Absentee Ballot Requests a Sign of Things to Come?

By: Eric
Published On: 10/29/2006 11:43:11 AM

While tossing some older newspapers into the recycle bin today I noticed an interesting article in one of the local snail-mail delivered papers.  Although the article is a few days old the content still has great relevance to the outcome of the elections this year.

On the front page of the October 26 edition of the Sun Gazette there is a an article titled "Fairfax Turnout Could Be Key" (or "Strong, Not Spectacular, Turnout Forecast in Fairfax" in the online version).  I don't know why they changed the online name - maybe some Allen supporters complained.  But that's not important, here's what is:

Fairfax County election officials say they have seen a spike in absentee-ballot requests, a possible harbinger of higher voter turnout in the Nov. 7 election.

and this:

As of Tuesday, Oct. 24, the county [Fairfax County] had received 17,069 absentee-ballot applications, up from around 11,500 in the 2002 mid-term election, said Jackie Harris, Fairfax County general registrar.

"This probably translates into a better-than-50-percent turnout, which is pretty good for a mid-term election," she said.

and this

Fairfax County... has received 8,485 of those absentee ballots back already from voters - a 49.7-percent return rate

A "better-than-50-percent" increase in turnout on November 7 would be jaw dropping.  Even if the turnout doesn't hit a 50% increase, the surge in absentee ballot requests is a very strong indicator that many Fairfax County residents will be visiting the polls this year.

Plain and simple, a strong turnout in moderate Fairfax County will put the hurt on Allen's re-election bid.  It's a forgone conclusion that Webb will destroy Allen in Fairfax and the NOVA region, so the larger the turnout in NOVA, the more Allen will have to pull from the disparate regions of Virginia.  Given how well the Allen campaign is doing, digging up enough votes to counter a strong turnout in NOVA will be very difficult.

Comments



voting machines (Alice Marshall - 10/29/2006 1:42:44 PM)
This has partly to do with a lack of confidence in the voting machines. Many are requesting absentee ballots so they can vote on paper.


I hope its not for what Kilgore's mother was doing last year. (Used2Bneutral - 10/29/2006 2:51:43 PM)
In other words, I would hope these absentee ballots are not being requested for residents of Retirement Homes, Convelescent facilities, and hospices to be artificially filled in by Republican "Helpers" as Kilgores Mother did in some of the more out of the way areas of SWVA. Pardon my paranoia, But it isn't really paranoia.... If it were Paranoia I would only "Think" they were out to get us.... in this case they really are out to get us for sure. So it's not Paranoia, it's Reality.


I hope we've got some serious election monitors (Lowell - 10/29/2006 3:00:37 PM)
down in Gate City. You never know what ol' Willie Mae might have up her sleeze.


If lack of confidence (Eric - 10/30/2006 10:11:42 AM)
is one of the reasons why people are requesting absentee ballots, I hope Fairfax County is paying attention.  This "vote" of no confidence screams for the need to invest in electronic voting equipment that provides a paper trail.

Even if lack of confidence is the reason for the increase in requests, I'd still argue that it indicates a much stronger passion for this election than previous mid-terms.  Which will lead to a stronger general turn out... and hopefully we'll get good weather.



Frank O'Leary, Treas. of Arlington, argues that absentees (teacherken - 10/29/2006 3:08:15 PM)
can be used to project overall turnout.  His track record in the past at predicting Arlington turnout has been remarkably accurate.

However let me offer one caveat.  It is possible that at least some of the increase in requests for absentees is because of increasing concern about electronic voting, and hence may be a shift of voters who already intended to vote.  Then again, it also could represent people who are asking for absentees so that they can be free to work/volunteer the entire day on the election.

I just had brunch with some bloggers and other political types.  One person  present was a staffer for the Feder campaign.  They are feeling very upbeat about their chances.



Pegged it for me - need absentee because we are working the election (snolan - 10/29/2006 6:45:25 PM)
Teacherken, you pegged my reason for voting absentee this year: my wife and I will be election officials at Prince William County's Mullen Precinct.  We have to vote absentee in order to vote at all (our own precinct was already full of volunteers, and our ASL skills are predicted to be of more use in Mullen than out here in Evergreen).

I am also concerned about machines with no verifiable audit/paper trail, but that was not enough to get me to vote absentee; it was getting involved.

I am upbeat about all the races.  Working in Judy's office last Tuesday was awesome.