For quite some time the Republican party has laid claim to the title of "Tough on Crime". In previous election cycles George Allen has touted his crime fighting leadership. Strengthening parole standards was one of the centerpieces of his successful gubernatorial bid in 1993. In fact, if you believe Allen's claims, the now famous "noose in the office" is a symbol of Allen's strict and tough approach to law and order.Turns out that crime is not much of an issue this election cycle. So much so that Allen's website doesn't even list crime as an issue. The only reference to crime is found under the issue of Immigration where Allen mentions illegal immigration.
Why isn't crime a top priority for Republicans anymore? What happened to the days of Willie Horton? That's easy: 9/11. Terrorism is the Fear du Jour for the Republican election efforts. This subject is worthy of a diary itself but I'll save that for another day.
So Allen makes the claim that he's tough on crime. But is he really? A closer look at crime statistics over the past decade and half provide no solid evidence of this supposed toughness.
The table below compares violent crime statistics between the United States average and Virginia during Allen's time as governor. The first two data columns show the actual crime rate per 100K population (the standard for crime measurements). The second two data columns show the percent change from the previous year - negative values meaning crime fell and positive values meaning crime increased.
Highlighted in RED is the better value in terms of lower crime. The lower number is always better because it indicates a greater decrease in crime or a lesser increase in crime.
Based on this data Allen fared worse than the national average all four years of his time in office. Under Allen's leadership Virginia underperformed in the battle against crime.
Violent Crimes - U.S. and Virginia
| Crime Rate (per 100K) | Percent Change from Previous Year | |||
| Year | US | VA | US | VA |
| 1994 | 713.6 | 357.7 | -4.4 | -3.9 |
| 1995 | 684.6 | 361.5 | -4.1 | 1.1 |
| 1996 | 636.5 | 341.3 | -7.0 | -5.6 |
| 1997 | 610.8 | 345.2 | -4.0 | 1.1 |
With that in mind, here is an expanded version of the same table. It covers the time from Wilder through part of Warner's term (that being the latest year of official statistics available from DOJ).
Violent Crimes - U.S. and Virginia
| Crime Rate (per 100K) | Percent Change from Previous Year | ||||
| Year | US | VA | US | VA | |
| Wilder | 1990 | 731.8 | 350.6 | 10.4 | 12.2 |
| 1991 | 758.1 | 373.2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | |
| 1992 | 757.5 | 374.9 | -0.1 | 0.5 | |
| 1993 | 746.8 | 372.2 | -1.4 | -0.7 | |
| Allen | 1994 | 713.6 | 357.7 | -4.4 | -3.9 |
| 1995 | 684.6 | 361.5 | -4.1 | 1.1 | |
| 1996 | 636.5 | 341.3 | -7.0 | -5.6 | |
| 1997 | 610.8 | 345.2 | -4.0 | 1.1 | |
| Gilmore | 1998 | 567.5 | 325.7 | -7.1 | -5.6 |
| 1999 | 523.0 | 314.7 | -7.8 | -3.4 | |
| 2000 | 506.5 | 281.7 | -3.2 | -10.5 | |
| 2001 | 504.4 | 291.3 | -0.4 | 3.4 | |
| Warner | 2002 | 494.4 | 291.7 | -2.0 | 0.1 |
| 2003 | 475.8 | 278.2 | -3.8 | -4.6 | |
| 2004 | 465.5 | 275.6 | -2.2 | -0.9 | |
| 1994 - 2004 Overall Change | -34.8 | -23.0 | |||
Unfortunately for George Allen, the results aren't much different.
Overall, crime is falling. Which is most likely the source of Allen's tough on crime claims. He'll correctly say that while he was governor and the years following crime fell. Problem is, United States average crime fell more significantly during that time. With a few exceptions, Virginia underperformed the national averages. The 1994 to 2004 decade shows Virginia lagged the national average by almost 12 points! Most of this decade was under the leadership of two tough on crime governors: Allen and Gilmore.
If Allen was an average crime fighter he would have fared much better. The state governors who implemented effective crime programs certainly did better than the national average.
Virginia does show better results in property crime statistics. Below is the same table for those statistics.
Property Crimes - U.S. and Virginia
| Crime Rate (per 100K) | Percent Change from Previous Year |
||||
| Year | US | VA | US | VA | |
| Wilder | 1990 | 5088.5 | 4090.0 | 0.2 | 4.9 |
| 1991 | 5139.7 | 4234.2 | 1.0 | 3.5 | |
| 1992 | 4902.7 | 3923.6 | -4.6 | -7.3 | |
| 1993 | 4737.7 | 3743.3 | -3.4 | -4.6 | |
| Allen | 1994 | 4660.0 | 3689.9 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
| 1995 | 4591.3 | 3627.7 | -1.5 | -1.7 | |
| 1996 | 4450.1 | 3627.0 | -3.1 | 0.0 | |
| 1997 | 4311.9 | 3530.9 | -3.1 | -2.6 | |
| Gilmore | 1998 | 4052.5 | 3334.7 | -6.0 | -5.6 |
| 1999 | 3743.6 | 3059.2 | -7.6 | -8.3 | |
| 2000 | 3618.3 | 2746.4 | -3.3 | -10.2 | |
| 2001 | 3656.1 | 2886.9 | 1.0 | 5.1 | |
| Warner | 2002 | 3630.6 | 2851.1 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| 2003 | 3591.2 | 2721.5 | -1.1 | -4.5 | |
| 2004 | 3517.1 | 2676.6 | -2.1 | -1.6 | |
| 1994 - 2004 Overall Change | -24.5 | -27.5 | |||
This data shows Virginia roughly equal with the national averages - some years better and some years worse. Overall for the decade Virginia fared slightly better, showing a 3 point improvement over the national average.
George Allen did get some "tough on crime" legislation passed during his time as governor. Most notably, there was a precipitous drop in parole a few years after he took office. But most of his efforts resulted in legislation that was "tough on criminals" as opposed to "tough on crime".
This success should not be trivialized. Crime and punishment is a complex subject and most certainly the punishment aspect is important in many ways. To give credit where it's due, Allen did address this punishment aspect and made the punishment process more painful for convicted criminals.
But the real measure of a successful crime program is whether the citizens feel safer walking the streets and while sleeping in their own homes. It is measured in the amount of damage criminals do to our bodies, our wallets, and our psyche. The simple statistics cited above do tell that story.
On the positive side, crime has been falling the past decade, providing a safer environment for all of us.
On the negative side, Virginia horribly underperformed when compared to national violent crime trends and barely outperformed on property crimes. There is absolutely no statistical evidence to back up Allen's "tough on crime" image. In fact, the statistics indicate just the opposite, that Virginia fared much worse than much of the nation during Allen's leadership.
While I applaud efforts to give criminals the tough punishment they deserve, I'd much prefer that our streets and homes were safer. To stick it to the criminals after they committed the crime is great, but it's much better to have fewer crimes committed. Unfortunately, George Allen sees things differently.
Allen - tough on criminals, weak on crime.