Rising Kaine!

So now, Mason-Dixon says that Tim Kaine is beating Jerry "the Duck" Kilgore by a 38-37% margin.  Interestingly, Russ Potts is drawing 9% in the poll, and far more heavily from Republicans (8%) than from Democrats (5%, of which Goodbye Jim alone makes up 0.01%, no doubt!).  As the Times-Dispatch says, "The poll depicts Potts as a greater threat to Kilgore than Kaine."  You can say that again, with Potts drawing both from pro-business, pro-transportation (and other infrastructure) Republicans as well as from Independents (14%!).  All bad news for Jerry and Scott as they pore over these results in their dark cave(s) somewhere, or watch their goons beat up on a young, female Kaine campaign volunteer at a summer festival.  According to the Larry Sabato, not generally known for his pro-Kaine leanings:

This poll is really going to shake up this contest. Kaine is doing at least every bit as well as Kilgore, and Potts is clearly still a factor. Thank God, this race is finally getting interesting.

According to the Richmond Times-Dispatch article:

The poll indicates Virginians are mostly concerned about bread-and-butter issues that Kaine, playing defense on several cultural issues, would prefer to emphasize: education, transportation and jobs, among them.

Voters seem less interested in guns, gay rights, abortion and the death penalty, the hot-button topics that Kilgore has emphasized to excite the Republican base.

Well, it looks like the "base" -- certain right-wing Virginia political blogs, for instance - may be excited by Kilgore's "hot-button" (aka, "divisive," "nasty") social issues campaign strategy.  Unfortunately for Jerry Boy, most normal voters don't want to hear about that garbage.  Instead, they care about the things I've always strongly suspected:  transportation, health care, education, jobs - "bread and butter" issues as the Times-Dispatch calls them. 

Obviously, there's a lot more work to do before November, and we should always fight like we're 10 points down, but let's face it, the past few weeks have been fantastic ones for Tim Kaine (and Russ Potts), and, conversely, God-awful ones for Jerry Kilgore.  First, there was the retirement of Sandra Day O'Connor, and the rising concern over a possible rightward lurch on the Supreme Court.  This, of course, could threaten our civil liberties, our system of checks and balances, our separation of church and state, and our autonomy over our own, most personal medical decisions (abortion, end-of-life, etc.). 

Second, there's been the continuing miserable poll ratings for President Bush, the Republican-led Congress, the war in Iraq, the economy, and the Republicans' loopy Social Security privatization proposals.  Americans are clearly rejecting the batshit crazy agenda of the Dick Cheney/Tom DeLay/Bill Frist crowd.  Unfortunately for Jerry Kilgore, voters are increasingly discovering that he's one of THAT part of the Republican Party, not the moderate, sane, Russ Potts/John Warner wing.

Third, there was the debate that Kilgore hoped and prayed you'd never see or hear about.  Unfortunately for Jerry "the Duck," audio recording was allowed at the Greenbrier (although the Kaine campaign was prohibited from using it by the Kilgore crew, which said that was a "deal breaker"), and bloggers like Waldo Jaquith are having a field day mercilessly (and hilariously) mocking Kilgore's own words, all set to sweet, sweet music.  As I predicted here, people would turn against Kilgore "when diligent reporters [took] the time and effort to analyze Jerry Kilgore?s misstatements and outright lies."  And that's exactly what it looks like is happening.  No wonder Jerry Kilgore's been in hiding most of this campaign - he DOES NOT trust that the voters of Virginia will LIKE him once they get to KNOW him.  For once, I agree with Kilgore on something.  With his bizarre mannerisms, strange attitudes, irresponsible and ill-conceived proposals, "Ned Flander meets Mr. Rogers" voice, and corrupt family background, why would anyone - except for a hard-right Republican - even consider voting for this guy?  Especially when Mark Warner's right-hand man is right there, ready and able to pick right up where Warner's "AAA" record left off?  Is this a "no brainer" or what?

Fourth, there were signs that popular national Democrats like Barack Obama are rallying around Tim Kaine.  What an amazing evening the other night in Clarendon, for instance, where Obama was greeted by 700-800 Young Democrats as the rock star (and one of the most popular politicians in America) that he is, and Tim Kaine basked in Obama's glow.  Meanwhile, the Republican Party of Virginia, also known as "killjoys" and the "gloom and doom crowd," were busy -- believe it or not -- attacking Obama! Can you believe these people?  You'd think if they were going to be vicious, at least they'd be smart about it.  But, nooooo.

After all this, not surprisingly, the Kilgore campaign's frustration is showing, as evidenced by the infamous Cantaloupe Festival shoving incident the other day.  Isn't this exactly what the Jerry Kilgores and Scott Howells of the world do when they're challenged and exposed for what they truly are - bullies, slime-masters, and (utlimately) cowards.  Hey Jerry, why don't you pick on a girl your own size?  And Scott Howell, why don't you slink back to whatever rock you live under, where people with "trick knees" impugn the patriotism of triple-amputee war heroes like Max Cleland?  Or, why don't you spend your time here actually figuring out where your candidate stands on:  abortion, taxpayer referenda, the Warner record, Confederate History and Heritage month, and much, much more?

You know, there are schoolyard slurs for people like Jerry Kilgore -- several, actually -- but I will not repeat them here.  You can use your own imagination, but think about what the kids would call someone like Jerry "SpongeBob" Kilgore if they met him on the playground?  Meanwhile, we have a candidate named Tim Kaine who has lived an incredible life, serving as a missionary in Honduras and generally living a life of putting his faith into action, of fighting for what he believes in, and of not backing down to bullies/cowards like Jerry Kilgore.

It will be interesting to see, in coming weeks, if Jerry Kilgore's tune (and tone) starts to change now that he's officially LOSING this race for governor.  Will the smug, arrogant, aloof "front-runner" Jerry Kilgore of the past 6 months change, or will he continue, obliviously onwards?  Will Kilgore now be begging for debates with Tim Kaine (and Bolling with Byrne, McDonnell with Deeds), now that he's down not up, going backwards not forwards?  Will Kilgore even agree to allow the next debate -- if there ever is a next debate -- to be broadcast on TV, or will he keep on ducking?  And, miracle of miracles, will Kilgore be forced to accept Russ Potts at the next debate, given that Marshall Coleman..er, Potts may have as good a chance of winning this race as Jerry Kilgore does? 

Stay tuned, as we see how the wounded animal Kilgore campaign acts when it's cornered, when Kilgore is falling and Kaine is RISING.  My guess, given Scott Howell's track record:  think "vicious" -- and a lot more cantaloupe festival shoving incidents.  Watch out, Virginians, you thought the summer was hot so far?  It's about to get a lot hotter!

PS  For more on the poll results, please see Waldo Jaquith, Virginia Centrist, 750 Volts (and Kenton's usual, cool graphs!), and Barnie Day at Bacon's Rebellion.  Great stuff.

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