Fox: Internal GOP Poll Shows If Hastert Stays, 50 Seat Loss Possible
By: PM
Published On: 10/5/2006 4:15:25 PM
Fox News is reporting:
House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned.
"The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker," a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. "And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss."
The GOP source told FOX News that the internal data had not been widely shared among Republican leaders, but as awareness of it spreads calculations about Hastert's tenure may change. The source described the pollster who did the survey as "authoritative," and said once the numbers are presented, it "could change the focus" on whether the speaker remains in power.
While internal GOP polls show trouble for Republicans, the newest AP/Ipsos poll also showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be "very or extremely important" when it comes time to vote on Nov. 7. By nearly a 2-1 ratio, voters say Democrats are better at combating corruption.
The same pollster who provided the gloomy news on Hastert's effect on GOP candidates nationwide did send out an advisory on Tuesday to rank-and-file Republicans that they might consider canceling appearances with Hastert in their districts.
Comments
Then let him stay. n/t (phriendlyjaime - 10/5/2006 4:26:52 PM)
I should clarify... (phriendlyjaime - 10/5/2006 4:32:09 PM)
Obviously, Hastert and many others deserve to get thrown the ^%$& out on 11/7/06. However, Hastert is NOT resigning, and the republicans are NOT going to force him to step down, bc honesty and ADMITTING YOU WERE WRONG ON MULTIPLE LEVELS is just not as important as keeping his seat and keeping control.
So, there. He'll stay, and we'll win.
No need to clarify (Eric - 10/5/2006 5:00:37 PM)
We're all thinking the same thing: If these Republicans value their jobs over their supposed values, then they don't deserve to keep their jobs.
And the surest way to accomplish that is if they sit tight and play the same "I'm innocent/I'm a victim/I don't make or admit mistakes" games that they've been playing for years. They can fool the public sometimes, but this one is just too obvious - they're not going to fool anyone.
As for the poll - I'm not allowed to comment after my rant. But I'd sure like it to be true.
i thought i would never say this but.... (pvogel - 10/5/2006 5:23:43 PM)
" From Fox news internal polling service
to gods ears!"
Ick (Newport News Dem - 10/6/2006 8:56:20 AM)
but in context, the ick is worth it!
Stay the Course Denny! (Bubby - 10/5/2006 6:10:27 PM)
You too George, keep flapping your gums.
Time Poll Devastating for GOP (PM - 10/5/2006 6:43:13 PM)
http://www.time.com/...
The GOP misery gets deeper:
Thursday, Oct. 05, 2006
TIME Poll: The Foley Sex Scandal Has Hurt G.O.P. Election Prospects
Two-thirds of those aware of the scandal believe Republican leaders attempted a cover-up, according to a new survey
By TONY KARON
Two-thirds of Americans aware of the congressional-page sex scandal believe Republican leaders tried to cover it up — and one quarter of them say the affair makes them less likely to vote for G.O.P. candidates in their districts come November. Those are among the findings of a new TIME poll conducted this week among 1,002 randomly-selected voting-age Americans.
The poll suggests the Foley affair may have dented Republican hopes of retaining control of Congress in November. Among the registered voters who were polled, 54% said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, compared with 39% who favored the Republican — a margin that has jumped by 11 points from a similar poll conducted in June. ***
Almost 80% of respondents were aware of the scandal, and only 16% approve of the Republicans' handling of it.**
The bad Iraq news is hurting the GOP too.
Iraq, meanwhile, is continuing to be a problem for the Republicans. Only 38% of respondents in the TIME poll now support President Bush's decision to invade Iraq, down from 42% three months ago. A similar number believe that the new Iraqi government will succeed in forming a stable democracy, while 59% believe this is unlikely. Almost two-thirds (65%) of respondents disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war, while 54% believe he "deliberately misled" Americans in making his case for war — a figure that has increased by 6 points over the past year. President Bush's overall approval rating, according to TIME's poll, now stands at just 36%, down from 38% in August.
"Some members"???????? (PM - 10/5/2006 6:56:41 PM)
Ray LaHood is an IL Republican----
http://news.independ...
Meanwhile, Mr LaHood called for a suspension of the page programme, in which 15- and 16-year-old interns work on the Capitol running errands for legislators. "Some members betray their trust by taking advantage of them. We should not subject young men and women to this kind of activity, this kind of vulnerability," he told CNN.
Rep. Reynolds Poll Numbers Go South (PM - 10/5/2006 7:12:04 PM)
From DailyKos:
We now know that Tom Reynolds, as head of the NRCC, not only tried to cover up Foley's predatory practices, but also encouraged him to run for reelection when Foley was considering retiring. And he's not sorry about a thing. So how is this playing at home, in his own reelection battle? Not too good.
SurveyUSA. 10/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4.6% (9/25-27 results)
Reynolds (R) 45 (45)
Davis (D) 50 (43)
The late September poll included a Green Party candidate that has since been thrown off the ballot by the courts.
That's a seven-point swing in a single week. It was fortuitous that we have before and after polling to gauge the "Foley effect", and it's quite real and dramatic. Reynolds' efforts to hide behind children at press conferences, and his own insistence that he's pristine and blameless, should continue dragging down his numbers.
is poll questionable? (vote-left - 10/6/2006 5:44:56 PM)
Foley Fallout: Not So Fast
By Stuart Rothenberg
[...]
But we would be strongly inclined to discount a hysterical account on FoxNews.com that cited an allegedly "authoritative" anonymous GOP consultant who said that if Speaker Hastert remains in that office until Election Day, Republicans could lose 50 seats instead of 20.
What baloney.
First, I'm not ready to accept Fox News's description that the pollster is "authoritative," "and you shouldn't either. I can guess who they are referring to, and I wouldn't use that description.
Second, as one reputable GOP consultant reminded me yesterday, there is no way to project seat losses from a national survey, so the "internal poll" on FoxNews.com should be viewed skeptically.....
http://rothenbergpol...