Mason-Dixon: It's Tied!

By: Lowell
Published On: 9/29/2006 7:30:25 PM

According to Not Larry Sabato and MSNBC, Mason-Dixon is out with new numbers on the Webb-Allen race, and it is great news for Jim Webb.  According to Mason-Dixon, generally considered the best polling outfit around, this race is tied, 43%-43%, with just 39 days to go.  Even better, if you're a Webb fan, is the fact that Allen is only at 43%, a truly horrendous number for an incumbent Senator just 5 1/2 weeks from Election Day. 

What's not good about this poll for Allen?  Let us count the ways!  First, conventional political wisdom says that most undecided voters tend to break for the challenger, especially in an election cycle where voters want change.  Well, voters certainly want change this year, with the vast majority saying that things are not "heading in the right direction" right now.  Second, Allen has almost 100% name recognition, which means he doesn't have much "upside" potential.  In other words, everyone knows Allen, so how does he change peoples' views of him?  Third, the Webb campaign has barely advertised at all so far, but now that money is pouring in, that's going to change significantly in coming weeks.  Finally, God only knows how many more people will come forward with stories of George Allen's outlandish behavior over the years.

The bottom line: this race is tied in the best poll available, but the miserable 43% number for George Allen has got to have George, Dick, Chris, and friends in a panic over at Allen for Senate HQ. 

[UPDATE: Here's the trend over the last three Mason-Dixon polls.

7/30: 48%/32% Allen/Webb
9/10: 46%/42% Allen/Webb
9/29: 43%/43% Webb/Allen

In other words, Allen's down 5 points and Webb's up 11 points since 7/30.  Gotta love that trend!]


[UPDATE #2: More details from this poll indicate that only 42% of Virginians approve of George W. Bush's job performance, while 57% disapprove.  Congress gets even worse ratings, with 21% approval and 69% disapproval! Only 29% of Virginians say the country's on the "right track." By a 63%-37% margin, Virginian are worried about the economy.  On immigration, 53% of Virginians believe that illegal immigrants should be given a "chance to stay" in the US, while 36% say they should be deported. For all the results, see here.]

Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign.  The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.

  GOP congressman resigns  (0.00 / 0) [delete comment]
More breaking news

Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL) planned to resign today, hours after ABC questioned him about sexually explicit internet messages with current and former Congressional pages under the age of 18.

A spokesman for Foley, the chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, said the congressman submitted his resignation in a letter late this afternoon to Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Hours earlier, ABC News had read excerpts of instant messages provided by former pages who said the congressman, under the AOL Instant Messenger screen name Maf54, made repeated references to sexual organs and acts.

The full details will be included in a report tonight on ABC World News with Charles Gibson.

by: Jeff B @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 15:52:06 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]
What a way to end the week!!!! (4.00 / 2) [delete comment]
I suppose that 180 NLS reported yesterday is no longer valid.

To address your question "In other words, everyone knows Allen, so how does he change peoples' views of him?" - Allen's been doing a fantastic job of changing peoples view in the past 6 weeks.  Just not the way he had in mind... but great for Webb.

So this week we have lies, the n-word, deerheads, and now a true pervert Representative on the GOP side, and, um,  hairpulling on the Democratic side.

I hope some from Abramoff's cooperation with the authorities will come out before November...  that would be the icing on the cake.
by: Eric @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:00:26 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]

Abramoff's cooperation...... Problem's for Davis ????  (0.00 / 0) [delete comment]
would the Tom Davis connections make it to the indictment phase this month???  If so this alone could be a BIG help for Andy Hurst
by: Used2Bneutral @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:08:25 PM EDT
[ Parent | Reply | ]
Excellent news. We need to push hard now. (4.00 / 3) [delete comment]
When is the DSCC going to come in? We need them.

And please, donate. http://webbforsenate.... Thank you!
by: JennyE @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:04:10 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]

DSCC..  (4.00 / 2) [delete comment]
they have to the end of next week to release a TV ad for Webb. They told everyone they would, they already have HAD ads up for several other candidates. I think two for ford.

Um. okay chuck. I thought you wanted to win back the senate?

Even if we get 6, would 7 be better??????

"I have not yet begun to fight" --John Paul Jones, Father of the United States Navy
by: drmontoya @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:22:46 PM EDT
[ Parent | Reply | ]

maybe there is...  (0.00 / 0) [delete comment]
...a reason why the DSCC hasn't made any movement yet.  they are very shrewd, and schumer knows what he's doing.  he won't play around in a race that isn't winnable.  maybe he doesn't view this as winnable - yet.

regardless, i think when they come in, there will be a large influx of money and a completely different dynamic.

am also very interested to see fundraising numbers which will come out in two weeks!
by: littlepunk @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:28:08 PM EDT
[ Parent | Reply | ]

Well, if you had your way, the DSCC would stay away  (4.00 / 1) [delete comment]
The Allen campaign and its trolls are running scared now.

Aren't you 'blackamerican' btw? why do you hide behind several handles?
by: JennyE @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:45:18 PM EDT
[ Parent | Reply | ]
Reminder: Last Day of the Quarter to Contribute (4.00 / 1) [delete comment]
Let's all kick in some bucks and make sure the polls keep going in the right direction. Go here.

A bunch of money flowing into the campaign now could produce some nice media coverage, leading to more contributions, more volunteers, more good word of mouth, etc., etc.

I just put in $50.01.
by: bb10 @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:10:36 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]
Eugene Robinson said it very well -- people losing faith in Allen (4.00 / 2) [delete comment]
http://www.sfgate.co...

  But it's hard to put unalloyed faith in the word of a man who, in every sense, seems to know so very little about himself.

by: PM @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:15:47 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]
What a week! (4.00 / 2) [delete comment]
Well, at least my headache is gone!
by: Arturo @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:22:46 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]
Seeing Webb in NOVA This Saturday: Is This Right? (4.00 / 2) [delete comment]
  Webb will meet with supporters at Leesburg Restaurant at 8 a.m. Saturday morning. With a $30 donation, breakfast is included. Democratic Congressional candidate Judy Feder, Del. David Poisson (D-32), Sen. Mark Herring (D-33) and Leesburg town council members Kelly Burk and Marty Martinez will join Webb in Loudoun.

  And Saturday afternoon, Webb will hold a rally at O'Faolains Irish Restaurant and Pub in Ashburn Village. Free refreshments will be provided from 3:30 to 5 p.m. Webb is scheduled to arrive at 4 p.m. The public is invited to attend the breakfast or the afternoon rally.

http://www.leesburg2...
by: PM @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 16:35:02 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]
Happiness (4.00 / 1) [delete comment]
Finally Allen's base is deteriorating. For a while it looked like he would stay at 46 percent for the rest of campaign. The base may have finally gotten the word that there is a much better candidate.
Keep climbing Jim. Lets surpass the 50 percent mark by Oct. 15
by: Gordie @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 17:06:21 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]
Happiness (0.00 / 0) [delete comment]
Finally Allen's base is deteriorating. For a while it looked like he would stay at 46 percent for the rest of campaign. The base may have finally gotten the word that there is a much better candidate.
Keep climbing Jim. Lets surpass the 50 percent mark by Oct. 15
by: Gordie @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 17:07:02 PM EDT
[ Reply | ]


Comments



Great news! (mkfox - 9/29/2006 7:39:29 PM)
Looks like all those undecided voters from the earlier polls now have confidently made up their minds! In the final weeks, Webb just needs to stay strong and positive; if the Webb/Allen race in general gets too ugly for both candidates then voters will just stay home. I think it's safe to tag on a point or so for Webb since voters who'd normally vote Democratic (the poor, students, 20- and 30-somethings without a landline phone) aren't represented in these polls.


2NIGHT! (DukieDem - 9/29/2006 7:42:00 PM)
Donate 39$ for the 39 days left in the campaign, let's get over a million for the month!


darn (Newport News Dem - 9/29/2006 9:22:17 PM)
i sent another 50....who owes me 11 bucks!


I'm Really Ticked Off: The GOP Knew About Foley A Year Ago! (PM - 9/29/2006 7:43:29 PM)
Sorry that this is off-topic.  You know the Foley scandal?  The House Republican leadership knew about Foley A YEAR AGO!

The page worked for Rep. Rodney Alexander, R-La., who said Friday that when he learned of the e-mail exchanges 10 to 11 months ago, he called the teen's parents. Alexander told the Ruston Daily Leader, "We also notified the House leadership that there might be a potential problem," a reference to the House's Republican leaders.

That's what the AP story says.
http://www.sfgate.co...

Yes, I'm really excited about the poll.  But these GOP guys in the House have some explaining to do.

Did Tom Davis know?  Frank Wolf?  These are really senior GOP congressmen who preach family values.



Side note (Kenton - 9/29/2006 8:19:46 PM)
What's with all the stuff after the jump? Comments? IP addys?


looks like !@#$ed up soapblox (loboforestal - 9/29/2006 8:23:43 PM)
Lowell, get rid of that first comment.

DO NOT PUBLISH IP ADDRESSES !!!



This is a built-in feature of Soapblox (Lowell - 9/29/2006 8:25:26 PM)
I will talk to them about it.


You can see the IP addresses (loboforestal - 9/29/2006 8:51:25 PM)
You are the "administrator" or "super user" or whatever it's called.  We mere mortals can't see them.


I think I know what's going on (Lowell - 9/29/2006 8:30:28 PM)
SoapBlox recently tweaked its software.  I can now see everyone's IP address, right under the comment title line, and I just assumed everyone else could too.  When I copied the comments earlier, apparently it picked up the IP addresses as well - not sure how that happened, though.  Anyway, I've now deleted the IP addresses from the earlier comments to the Mason-Dixon story.  Sorry.


Part of the tweaking (Teddy - 9/29/2006 8:44:50 PM)
must have including that weird episode I had with being wiped out because of "slander" when entering a diary?? I hope Soapbox is through with its midlife crisis.


No, that wasn't SoapBlox (Lowell - 9/29/2006 9:13:36 PM)
We checked and that one was definitely (well, 99%) "user error" of some sort.


Military women, Black Caucus endorse Democrat Webb (JennyE - 9/29/2006 9:16:58 PM)
http://www.wdbj7.com...

Can we get Lieutenant General Kennedy on board to cut an ad for Webb? Anyone know how to contact her? I won't mind doing that.

We need a rapid response ad to counter the latest slime attack piece.



News Getting Around, e.g., Kansas City Star (PM - 9/29/2006 9:44:02 PM)
McClatchy-MSNBC poll:George Allen loses lead in VA Senate race

By STEVEN THOMMA
McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON - Republican Sen. George Allen of Virginia has lost his lead in his bid for re-election and is now tied with Democratic challenger James Webb, a new poll for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC showed Friday.

The poll found that the two men each have the support of 43 percent of registered voters, with a third-party candidate supported by 2 percent and the other 12 percent undecided.

The tie underscored how quickly prospects have changed for Allen, once thought to be cruising toward a comfortable re-election that he'd use as a springboard to a bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

The race's importance, however, extends far beyond Allen's own political prospects. It's one of a half-dozen Republican seats that are considered vulnerable to Democratic takeovers; Democrats need to gain six seats to take control of the Senate. ****



The poll (mkfox - 9/30/2006 4:07:58 AM)
was released by the Times-Dispatch to other Media General outlets at about 8 or 9 p.m. last night.

I like those stats!

Bush's policies in Iraq are opposed by 62% + 92% of Virginians recognize Webb's name + 57% disapprove of Bush's job performance + 57% say the nation is on the wrong track + 63% are very worried or somewhat worried about the direction of the economy + more Virginians have a unfavorable perception of Allen (32%) than Webb (20%) + 69% strongly disapprove or somewhat disapprove of Congress' performance = Sen. James Webb



And Here Comes Hillary (PM - 9/29/2006 9:47:23 PM)
http://www.dailypres...


COMMENT HIDDEN (Jane Oldham - 9/29/2006 10:26:36 PM)


Jane, Jane, Jane.... (phriendlyjaime - 9/29/2006 10:37:01 PM)
You need to blockquote, honey.  That's a copyright violation.

Oh, and sour grapes to you, too.



An Ode to Jane (DukieDem - 9/30/2006 12:12:50 AM)
Jane Jane,
Tis such a shame
you're casting your name
with someone so vain
he lies, he bullies, he curses, he steals
he's tarnished himself with lobbyist deals
he once had a lead, and now it is gone
so now it's time for you to move on
away with your trolling, your bias, your spin
you'll look awful foolish when we do win
ignore that polls daily contradictions
why look at facts when you've got such convictions?
finish the freedom fries, jump in your hummer
supporting Allen is a serious bummer
but I guess in this world of polarization
that it can take a dramatic presentation
to moves you away from your previous stances
you have to see the way your candidate dances
so change your mindset, your positions are baseless
Ms Jane Oldham, George Allen's a racist!

tip your waiters folks, I'm here all week



Very good! (Lowell - 9/30/2006 5:58:22 AM)


I doubt the Marriage/Hate Admendment will do all that it is meant to (Arlington Tom - 9/30/2006 2:08:26 AM)
One of the reasons republicans love the marriage admendments is that it attracts socially conservative african americans to the polls. Caught in the middle these voters don't usually vote in large numbers, but do turn out for anti-gay stuff. In the case of Allen, I doubt these african american voters can be relied on to vote republican- at least not now.