UPDATE: 51 Hot House Races: Kellam vs. Drake still one of the hottest!

By: Dan
Published On: 9/23/2006 3:09:35 PM

*This is an update from September 9th with new notes.  The findings are based on rankings from major web resources, polls, discussions with the grassroots, fundraising numbers, ethical issues of for the Republican incumbent, press, and buzz about the campaign. 

There are 51 seats the Republicans could realistically lose.  This number is a downgrade from the 53 in the last update, However, the number of vulnerable races remains at 30, with 21 races making up the seats that still have realistic potential.  These 51 seats encompass 25 states.  Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat or challenging the incumbent.  Although gas prices are going down, the War in Iraq is getting worse.  The 9/11 bounce is just about over for the GOP.  Things will be mighty interesting in weeks to come.

Below the flip is a list of key races in 2006.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat", all others have the name of the Republican incumbent

Highly vulnerable races (14)
Arizona 08x GÇô Republicans have abandoned ad buys in this district as polls are not working in their favor since the primary.  Is the Republican capitulation here a sign of strength for the Democrats, or a sign that the abundance of hot races are stretching Republicans thin?
Colorado 07x
Connecticut 02 (Simmons)
Indiana 02 (Chocola) GÇô Is Indiana really the battleground state, or are conservative Democrats able to win these districts if they play the right hand?  While Republican-light didnGÇÖt work for Kerry, it may work with those who have the credibility to do so, as long as they also run as populists.
Indiana 08 (Hostettler)
Indiana 09 (Sodrel)
Iowa 01x 
Kentucky 04 (Davis)
North Carolina 11 (Taylor) GÇô Shuler still seems to have the edge in this one, but itGÇÖs close.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach)
Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood) GÇô Sherwood is dogged by two words, mistress and choking.
Texas 22x GÇô Republicans have a write-in, and will likely go after Lampson in 2008.
Virginia 02 (Drake) GÇô Kellam has the name recognition down here to win, even in a conservative-leaning district.
Wisconsin 08x GÇô Kagen won the primary and has a really good shot to win this race given his financial edge.  Right now, this race is a toss up.

Vulnerable races (16)
California 11 (Pombo) 
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) GÇô The solid polling of a third party conservative candidate and former Reagan official may give Paccione the boost she needs to win in the end.  The polls have been consistent, and Musgrave remains around 46%.
Connecticut 04 (Shays)
Connecticut 05 (N. Johnson) GÇô Can the same GOP smear tactics work in Connecticut as they work elsewhere?
Florida 22 (Shaw)
Idaho 01x GÇô This race is anybodyGÇÖs guess at this point.  If they vote based on party, Sali runs away with it.  If they vote based on the individual, Grant has the edge.
Illinois 06x
Minnesota 06x
New Mexico 01 (Wilson) GÇô Madrid has the financing to take down Wilson, but expect this to be a close race until the end.  The district is blue enough for this to happen.
New York 24x GÇô This race will be close, but Arcuri has been keeping an edge.
Ohio 01 (Chabot)
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) GÇô This race is heating up.  For those of us who only thought Paul Hackett could win here, it appears as if Schmidt may be more vulnerable than she was the last time.
Ohio 15 (Pryce)
Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon)
Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick) GÇô Will MurphyGÇÖs military record catapult him?  DoesnGÇÖt serving in Iraq kind of make the GOP GÇ£Democrats donGÇÖt support our troopsGÇ¥ mantra mute?
Washington 08 (Reichert)

Potential seats (21)
Arizona 01 (Renzi) GÇô A recent poll has Renzi at 45%.  Simon has been raising funds and since the primary, she seems to have gotten some momentum. The DCCC has given the race some new attention, listing it as GÇ£emergingGÇ¥.  Will this still be emerging in a few weeks?
Arizona 05 (Hayworth)
California 04 (Doolittle) GÇô This race is looking more competitive.
Colorado 05x GÇô This race has raised more than a few heads, especially when retiring Republican incumbent Joel Hefley decided to withdraw support for the Republican, Lamborn, and even considered a write-in candidacy for himself that would take votes away from Lamborn.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) GÇô Kerry got 53% in 2004.
Kentucky 02 (Lewis) GÇô This race got the front page of the Washington Post as they examined tight races in the Mid-South.  Lewis looks like he still has a chance in this environment, but heGÇÖll still need all the luck he can get to pull the upset.
Kentucky 03 (Northup)
Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht)
Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry)
Nevada 02x
Nevada 03 (Porter)
New Hampshire 02 (Bass)
New Jersey 07 (Ferguson)
New York 03 (King)
New York 20 (Sweeney)
New York 29 (Kuhl)
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) GÇô Kissell better have some more ideas to run on than just gas prices if he expects the upset here.
Ohio 18x GÇô It is still unclear if Ney pleading guilty helps or hurts.
Texas 23 (Bonilla) GÇô Ciro has a real opportunity if he can pull his campaign together in time.
Washington 05 (McMorris) GÇô This race continues to be an intriguing upset possibility.
Wyoming at-large (Cubin) GÇô Trauner has a good ad out, and this race may be a lot hotter than people think.

10 races on the fringe
CA 50 (Bilbray), FL 08 (Keller), FL-13x, FL 16 (Foley), MI-08 (Rogers), MN-02 (Kline), NY 19 (Kelly), NY-25 (Walsh), VA-10 (Wolf), VA-11 (Davis)

**This article will change over time.  As I have updated lists, I find that some candidates havenGÇÖt gotten the fundraising or the press going to really be competitive as of yet.  While some races are up and coming, clearly, these are the races that so far have stood out as ones that are currently on track to make a serious run this November. As the campaign season moves ahead, some races will become closer and some will become more distant.  I will make further updates in late-September.
***This list does not count VermontGÇÖs open seat, where a victory for Democrat Peter Welch would take the seat from Independent to Democrat.  However, this race is almost like a Democratic seat since Sanders caucused with the Democrats.

Key campaign resources
National Journal Race Rankings: House
Washington Post key  races (Governor, Senate, House)
Democratic Candidates for House of Representatives
2004 results analysis
Candidates with ethics issues
Fighting Dems
Key House Races
House Balance of Power Scorecard
Politics1
Larry Sabato (Has fundraising numbers
Election Projection.com

Comments



Thanks for the update (VA Breeze - 9/25/2006 12:36:22 AM)
Glad to see the Cal. 11 race-Pombo vs Jerry McNerney-is still competitive. It would be great to have someone with a different answer to the energy problems other than drilling. Pombo has made it on to some of the "corrupt" lists and has received $112,000 from the oil and gas industry.

Currently, Jerry McNerney is a wind turbine manufacter. He would bring a very different perspective to working on energy problems.



Allen drag on the ticket? (uva08 - 9/25/2006 6:22:54 PM)
It is becoming clearer by the day that Allen may go down come November.  The only question is by how much.  Larry Sabato just got on Hardball just a few minutes ago and said that he knows that Allen used the n-word while in college.  Now, not only do you have a team mate saying that he heard Allen say it but you also have one of the most respected political scientist (the most respected in Virginia) going on national TV and corroberating the story.  If moderate Republicans stay at home, Republican candidates across the entire state should be concerned, namely Drake, Wolf, Davis, and Goode (in order of vulnerability).