RK ARCHIVE - More Survey Thoughts

Age Groups
The 50+ age group (roughly 50% of the survey population) is dead even between Webb and Allen. I would've expected at least a slight lean toward Allen from this group. The middle age bracket (35 to 49) leans fairly heavily toward Allen given how tight the overall race is. The smallest likely voters age bracket (18 to 34) leans heavily toward Webb but this isn't news.

Are we going to see a battle plan where Webb focuses on winning that middle age bracket while defending against Allen gains in the upper brackets? From this data it would appear that that age group should be where the battle is fought - meaning parents of school age children and mid-career working folks.

Party and Ideology
Republicans go 90/6 for Allen
Conservatives go 85/9 for Allen

Numbers such as these wouldn't normally be considered a surprise, but they do seem to indicate that Webb is getting very little cross-over from the Republicans/Conservatives. Given his background which included military service (and he didn't throw away his medals), working for Reagan, and a moderate/progressive stance on many issues, I expected to see stronger cross-over support for Webb from this group. In fact, Allen has more cross-over support from Liberals (12/79) than Webb has from Conservatives (9/85).

Moderates lean heavily toward Webb (60/32) while Independents are evenly split (44/42). This is a little curious and I'm not sure what to make of it.

The Hate Amendment
The Hate Amendment question is again skewed because it leaves out the second paragraph. Perhaps it was too complex or long to include in the poll. But is it really skewed? Given the difficult wording of the second paragraph most voters will likely ignore it, therefore making their vote all about the first paragraph.

And things don't look good for those of us who oppose the amendment because the survey numbers do not indicate a strict party split. 39% of Webb voters indicate that they would vote YES for the amendment while only 11% of Allen voters indicate they would vote NO. Assuming the senate race is fairly close there is no way a Webb victory would come close to making a difference on the amendment vote.

Comments

On Party and Ideology (JennyE - 8/22/2006 1:07:20 PM)

I think Webb has a lot of room here to draw in about 20-25% Republicans if he tailors his message right. People haven't really heard Webb's message on the whole or don't know much about his background. For instance, last week I was in a meeting with a fairly conservative group of women and somehow the "macaca" incident came up. Allen was roundly trashed here, no surprise, but I was surprised when I mentioned Webb and none of the women knew he has a strong military background or that his positions are moderate. The consensus was "oh, there's another candidate out there, he's a Democrat". Nothing more. I know it's August but I wasn't too pleased.

This is where I hope Webb and his team can get his message out quickly now that voters are turned off by Allen. Seize the momentum so to speak before things die down. And definitely before Allen and his $$ millions try to define Webb.

Did you see (Lowell - 8/22/2006 4:12:24 PM)

Chris Cillizza saying that "I think the new polls out in this race are fundamentally accurate." Cillizza also says:

Virginia's politics are changing rapidly thanks to a huge growth spurt in Northern Virginia and exurban areas in Loudoun County. It is no longer a red state. Given Jim Webb's profile, I think his floor in this race is about 45 percent.
This has the potential to be an extremely competitive race assuming Webb is able to raise the $8-10 million he will need to stay within financial shouting distance of Allen.

Not Useful (Waldo Jaquith - 8/22/2006 4:13:33 PM)

I'm sorry to burst the analysis bubble, but that poll had a sample size of 567 voters, with 5% undecided. So all of the above is premised on a survey of a whopping 28 people. Can't no sample size of 28 people be extrapolated to draw any conclusions about the population at large. The internals on a survey of 567 people are simply too tiny to be sliced up and still be externally consistent.

Imagine a poll of 28 Virginians that shows that Webb is at 30%. Would you believe that poll? Or would you scream bloody murder? I don't know about you, but I count myself among the latter.

As far as I can tell (Eric - 8/22/2006 4:58:49 PM)

all of the above data is based on full sample size of 567 (which is a subset of 1000 or so registered voters which is a subset of 1200 people polled).

My comment about undecided voters was strictly a link to Ben's analysis on that topic. The rest this post is about the entire sample size and should be reasonably accurate.

Or have I missed your point?

Not the Hate Amendment (hrconservative - 8/22/2006 5:18:59 PM)

I agree with the survey. I think Allen has a race on his hands.

I also agree that the Marriage Amendment (not the Hate Amendment) is at 65% This is fantastic news.

However, you Webb heads, don't get too excited. I think Webb's numbers will fall back a little after about a week, once the Allen comment story fades. Some Republicans who are currently mad as fire at Allen will cool off, and since Webb's money situation will not allow him to put up TV ads, he will have to rely on the media to keep the story alive. O\\

RE: The Media, or Dick Wadhams (JPTERP - 8/22/2006 6:25:11 PM)

That Wadhams letter to supporters this past weekend was just one in a long succession of bizarre responses to this incident.

You get the sense that he either isn't disturbed by a sitting senator directing a racial slur at one of his constituents, or that he isn't disturbed by a sitting senator directing a racial slur at one of his constituents.

Where does George Allen stand on this incident? He said one thing, but his campaign manager is saying another. What's going on?