RK ARCHIVE - Will Tom Davis distance himself from George Allen?

NLS rightly points out that George Allen has heinously low numbers in Northern Virginia He's at 31%, according to Survey USA.

With Allen running so poorly upstate, it's imperative that Tom Davis distances himself from a Senator who has, quite frankly, become an international embarrassment for the Commonwealth of Virginia.

At 31% in NOVA, let's assume that he polls 40% in Davis' district. That's being generous. Tom Davis will have to run 10 points ahead of George Allen against a very progressive candidate who is making every effort to engage the base with red meat and grassroots organizing in a year when base turnout will decide elections. Andy Hurst is still a long shot (I'd rate his race as LIKELY REPUBLICAN), but this was exactly what he needed to make this a race. He needed George Allen to tank.

Tom Davis may have high approval ratings in his district, but he also has tons of new constituents who do not know him, and will be primed and ready to assume that he's just another Bush/Allen Republican. If Andy Hurst can get the money and grassroots activity to get that message to Davis' new contiuents, he may have a chance at pulling off a huge upset.

MORE: For those of you who think I'm being premature, think about this. Why does Tom Davis continually win? Much of it has to do with his moderate reputation.

Tom Davis really is a moderate. Unfortunately for him, two key issues have emerged since 2004: The War in Iraq and the Terri Schaivo case. Hurst may not be able to convince all of Davis' crossover support that he's no longer a moderate, but if can convince some, then he'll have a chance.

In 2004, Davis ran about 10.5% ahead of George W. Bush, receiving 60% of the vote to Bush's 49.5% in a year where incumbents faired well.

If George Allen wins only 40% of the vote in Davis' district, and Andy Hurst convinces a small sliver of Davis' crossover support to support him, Hurst will win.

Comments

This could drive a wedge (RayH - 8/18/2006 4:38:02 PM)

If it is heard loud and clear by everyone in NoVA, a demand for Tom Davis to repudiate George Allen for "macaca" would drive a wedge between the party faithful and the broader population that he needs.

That's a tough one for Davis.

Davis is Really NOT a Moderate (Andrea Chamblee - 8/18/2006 10:20:44 PM)

Please don't drink the Davis kool-aid. This must be a case where people have read so often that Davis is a moderate that they must believe it's true. Either that, or the Right Wing has flown the coop so far right that Davis only now seems moderate by comparison. He voted for the Iraq War both times. He voted for the estate tax cut in the middle of the night on the last day of the last session. He voted for the Medicare Part D bill written by his lobbyist friends for the Pharma industry. He voted for the oil tax break bill ($14.5 Billion with a "B") written by his greasy friends in the oil industry. He voted to gut the lobbying reform bill, which gives him and Wife #2 a Free Ride on the Gravy Train. Look at the Post Projects on how many times he voted the GOP Party line. If that is moderate, what does a person have to do to be labeled a conservative -- be stupid enough to use a racial slur in front of a video camera?

Moderate? NOT. (Kindler - 8/18/2006 11:06:11 PM)

Let's see, Tom Davis' progressive score is a not-so-whopping 14%, according to Progressive Punch (www.progressivepunch.org/members.jsp?search=selectName&member=VA11&chamber=Senate&zip=&x=29&y=10).

He's also ranked #257 on the liberal-conservative scale (#1 being most progressive) at VoteView (www.voteview.com). There are FIFTY Republican Congressmen rated more moderate than him.

He has cultivated a moderate image by strategically tacking to the center when it suits him politically. At the same time, he has been an essential member of the Republican leadership, serving as a facilitator to the right-wingers who are ripping our country to shreds.

We don't need "moderates" like that.

I agree. Tom Davis is not a "moderate" (Lowell - 8/19/2006 8:06:45 AM)

except by the degraded standards of today, when anything to the left of Dick "Atila the Hun" Cheney is considered "moderate." Also, I would add that Davis has serious ethical "issues," if not outright corruption. Finally, I would note that Davis is part of the Republican leadership in the House, and therefore is part of the problem NOT the solution. It's time for something better, something new, and his name is Andy Hurst. Go Andy!

I agree with this comment on your blog (Lowell - 8/19/2006 1:43:04 PM)

Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr. said...
VC:
I gotta disagree with you.
Tom Davis doesn't believe in income taxes rates graduated upwards by income. That's not moderate.
Tom Davis wants to repeal the Estate Tax. That's not moderate.
Tom Davis signed the Terri Schiavo subpoena. That's not moderate.
Tom Davis has hardly criticized the Bush Administration for anything (I think he says Bush has done a crappy job talking to congress). That's not moderate.
Tom Davis votes against his Party every once in a while, BUT they guy is not moderate.
Thirty years ago, he'd be seen as a hard core conservative. The Republican Party has gone so far right in the last 10 years, everyone's sense of perspective is heavily warped.

Tom Davis was on the Kojo Namdi show Thursday (8/17) (snolan - 8/20/2006 10:53:03 AM)

And he has come down solidly in support of George Allen. Not-so-moderate Tom is cutting and running. Cutting all claims to be anthing like a moderate (the cat's out of the bag now, thanks to Andy Hurst), and he's jumping into the ultra-right wing neocons as a last ditch effort to save his bacon.

Tom said on the Kojo show that this was a summer lull story, and that it would all blow over in "3 days" and that Allen had already apologized. All statements were false; and Kojo's other guests called him on it on the same show.

It had already gone on longer than 3 days. Allen has not yet apologized. We actually have tons of news this summer.

I have to revise my predictions again; I now thing Hurst will crush Davis 60/40. Go Hurst!

BTW - this gaff of Allen's was on the Diane Rehm on Friday too, and they discussed how much more insulting the phrase "Welcome to America" (in context) was than even the M word. That theme continued to be echoed at the Prince William County Caucus on Saturday, and then the Jeanette Rishell fundraiser Saturday night. This story is not going away becuase it is important for the voters to know they have a bully and a bigot in office.

Tom Davis and George Allen are gone.

My bet is Frank Wolf is more likely to distance himself from Allen.