RK ARCHIVE - UPDATE: 60 House races Democrats can take in 2006

The 60 seats is an upgrade from the last update, in part because of troubles in the Northeast bumping up some races that were on the fringe. In total, these 60 vulnerable seats for Republicans encompass 26 states. Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat or challenging the incumbent.

The question is how well these Democratic challengers can raise money, get volunteers to come out in force, and have the intelligence and wherewithal to withstand the Republican smear machine to bring the voters the truth about their incumbents dirty laundry. So far the Republicans seem to have more money than God. However, that might not be enough to get the voters to keep buying their bull.

Below the flip is a list of key races in 2006.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat", all others have the name of the Republican incumbent

Highly vulnerable races (14)
Colorado (07x)
Connecticut (02 Simmons, 04 Shays +óGé¼GÇ£ Lamont performed very well in this district)
Florida (22 Shaw)
Indiana (08 Hostettler, 09 Sodrel)
Iowa (01x)
Kentucky (04 Davis)
New Mexico (01Wilson)
New York (24x)
Pennsylvania (06 Gerlach, 07 Weldon)
Texas (22x +óGé¼GÇ£ Republicans have a write-in)
Virginia (02 Drake)

Vulnerable races (17)
Arizona (05 Hayworth, 08x)
California (11 Pombo)
Connecticut (05 N. Johnson)
Idaho (01 +óGé¼GÇ£ Apparently you can run too far to the right even in Idaho! Many Republicans are supporting the Democrat)
Illinois (06x)
Indiana (02 Chocola)
Minnesota (06x)
New York (20 Sweeney)
North Carolina (11 Taylor)
Ohio (01 Chabot, 15 Pryce, 18x +óGé¼GÇ£ Ney pulled out)
Pennsylvania (08 Fitzpatrick, 10 Sherwood +óGé¼GÇ£ Sherwood is dogged by two words, mistress and choking)
Washington (08 Reichert)
Wisconsin (08x)

Potential seats (29)
California (04 Doolittle, 50 Bilbray)
Colorado (04 Musgrave, 06 Tancredo)
Florida (08 Keller, 09x, 13x +óGé¼GÇ£ This race could move up after Republican candidate Tramm Hudson shared his recollection from his army days that +óGé¼+ôblack people are poor swimmers+óGé¼-¥, 16 Foley)
Illinois (10 +óGé¼GÇ£ Kerry got 53% in 2004)
Kentucky (02 Lewis, 03 Northup)
Minnesota (01 Gutknecht, 02 Kline)
Nebraska (01 Fortenberry)
Nevada (02x, 03 Porter)
New Hampshire (01 Bradley, 02 Bass)
New Jersey (07 Ferguson)
New York (03 King +óGé¼GÇ£ added to National Journal rankings, a victim of the Northeast voters?, 19 Kelly, 25 Walsh, 26 Reynolds, 29 Kuhl)
North Carolina (08 Hayes)
Texas (23 Bonilla +óGé¼GÇ£ redistricting)
Washington (05 McMorris)
West Virginia (02 Capito)
Wyoming (at-large Cubin +óGé¼GÇ£ Similar to the race in Idaho, just because you are a Republican in a conservative state, it doesn+óGé¼Gäót mean you can+óGé¼Gäót be disliked by most people simply on your poor personal lackings)

10 races on the fringe needing money and press coverage to become competitive (CA-26 Drier, CO-05x, OH-04x, MI-08 Rogers, MT-at large, PA-04 Hart, TX-06 Barton, TX-21 Lamar Smith, VA-10 Wolf, VA-11 Davis)

**This article will change over time. As I have updated lists, I find that some candidates haven+óGé¼Gäót gotten the fundraising going to really be competitive as of yet. However, this list still has 60 races, an upgrade from the 55 that I listed last time. These races should be on the Democratic radar. While some races are up and coming, clearly, these are the races that so far have stood out as ones that are currently on track to make a serious run this November. As the campaign season moves ahead, some races will become closer and some will become more distant. I will make further update in mid-September.

Comments

BTW (Dan - 8/17/2006 9:32:25 PM)

This is pretty detailed, so I hope you all get to check it out. Looks like Webb is doing better - and looks like a Democratic swing is coming. People are frustrated, and Allen just fueled it. People need to get to know these candidates and talk them up.

Thans for putting this together (pitin - 8/18/2006 12:42:05 AM)

I always enjoy reading it.

When are we going to get VA-11 on the list, Andy is raising a hell of money (next report will be great from what I hear), Davis has been a target of a mini-scandel (not a "macaca" though), polling is good.

In your opinion what needs to happen before the 11th comes into play?

VERY SIMPLE (Dan - 8/18/2006 9:29:17 AM)

We need a poll to show Andy is close. The last poll had him down 11. Sure Tom Davis was below 50%, but when you are down by more than 10, you are on the fringe. CA-26 is a 13 point race, but Drier got 53% or less in 2004, and is a big target for Democrats. We know Judy is down by about 10 or 11. I would say that top tier races have Democrats with near equivalent money and winning in the polls. That is why the NY-24 open seat moved up. Arcuri is winning in the polls by a few points. 2nd tier are races that look vulnerable. Polls are usually even, or a within a few points. 3rd tier are races where the Democrat is down by less than 10, or closer, and they have raised some funds. Also, if a race is listed on National Journal, it is on my list.

Andy is getting there. Do we have enough time? Not sure. Andy deserves a hell of a lot more exposure than he is getting.

Polls are not cheap (NovaDem - 8/18/2006 2:30:46 PM)

Tom Davis probably runs a poll every month but he is not going to share the bad news, and Team Hurst will probably not be able to do another one till the end of Sept. probably. but I think it will total show Andy within 7 pointss. I am in the mind set already that this is going to a be a very close race and I am directing my actions accordinly.

P.S. There is plenty of room under the tent here if you want to share this mind set.