Over at Not Larry Sabato (NLS), Ben Tribbett has an outstanding analysis of why Jim Webb can win the election in November. I strongly encourage you to read the entire analysis - Ben at his non-gossipy, non-scandally best - but here are a few highlights:*One key is African Americans. According to NLS, Webb helped himself tremendously with that community, "by bringing on Michael Brown, nephew of Doug Wilder, and expert in Virginia's African American vote."
*Another key, according to NLS, is that the share of the vote coming from western Virginia - where the GOP has been strong in recent years - is shrinking, while the share coming from Hampton Roads and particularly NOVA - where things are getting bluer and bluer - is growing. If Webb holds his own in western Virginia while racking up Tim Kaine-like margins in NOVA and Hampton Roads, he wins.
*Allen is facing a potential Democratic "wave" this year, given the strong anti-incumbent and anti-Bush mood out there. This is very much unlike Allen's victory in 2000, when George W. Bush won Virginia by 8 points over Al Gore (in contrast, Allen won by just 4.6 points).
*Webb is raising money right now, which will allow him to get his name out there. If he can do that, "Webb has a shot."
The bottom line is this: electoral trends in Virginia are moving in the Democrats' favor; Jim Webb is a former war hero and Reagan Navy Secretary with family roots in SWVA; and George Allen isn't that popular (underperformed Bush in 2000, re-elect under 50%). In other words, this race is VERY winnable for Jim Webb.
But Webb can't do it without YOU, his grassroots "rag-tag army." So... please give generously to Jim Webb. Volunteer some of your time for Jim Webb. Tell everyone you know what a great US Senator Jim Webb would make. Put up a yard sign or slap on a bumper sticker for Jim Webb. Write a letter to the editor in support of Jim Webb. And go vote on November 7.
P.S. Note to Ben - you should cross-post this at Daily Kos, MyDD, or another national blog. It deserves a lot of attention.
1) 9th CD and to a lesser degree the Valley are likely to be less friendly to Allen against Webb than they were against Robb, or in any other recent (2004 or 2005 ) election, because Webb can legitimately claim roots in Sw Virginia, and the packae he brings to the table will have more appeal in the Valley than did a mayor of Richmond
2) based on what I saw of the ability of pro-Webb people to turn out votes in N VA in the primary, and based on what we saw in 2005, and given how many people in N VA are new to the state since Allen last ran, I think Ben may be underestimating how much of a gap Allen will have to makeup in N VA
3) While I agree with the need for SOME media in N VA, I think his focusing on figures for over the air TV makes the proposition far more expensive than it has to be. I think one can do decent penetration with cable and radio. The secret might be to have one or two attention getting ads that one can show once or twice and possibly get free media replaying. Where I think the media buys should be concentration are
a) Hampton Roads, focusing on security issues and why Webb (background, knowledge)is superior to Allen
b) Richmond, perhaps showing picture of Allen in Gods and Generals and maybe even talk about the noose and the Confederate flag -- possibly play info about this on black radio stations in Richmond and in Norfolk
c) Roanoke and West -- highlighting Jim's roots in the SW part of the state. Talk about his forebears at the batlle of Kings Mountain. Possibly show newspaper of Allen wishing he had been born in Iowa
I think Ben is thinking far too much at how campaigns have been run in the past. I think the difference this campaign, if we get ducks in a row, will be the ground game. We will have the volunteers for massive field organizations and outreach. We need to get materials in the hands of local folks around the state, and Todd Smyth has done some good work recently on this.
I am not officially a part of the campaign. I do not have inside knowledge of budgets or tactics or even strategy. I have some inkling about events not yet public that I know will help greatly.
If Webb tries to run this as a traditional Senate campaign, he will probably not win. For one thing, he is not a traditional political figure, and to try to shoehorn him into a mold that doesn't fit him makes him uncomfortable, and then he does not connect as well with people. We have to model the campaign on the candidate, using his strengths, highlighting them, giving him an opportunity to connect with people. He will not be "smooth" but if we keep him comfortable he will be genuine, and that right now will connect with people. it can also serve as a very good contrast with Allen, and his fake folksiness.
Of course, I am only a school teacher and something of a blogger. I do not obsess on Virginia politics, so readers may choose to dismiss my comments. But my sense is if we let Jim be himself as much as possible, recognize that in N Virginia we have the ability to turn out a large pro-Dem vote without massive media buys in the expensive DC market, that can very much change the way this campaign is run, and I think for the better.
The ads should focus solely on Jim and Virginia and not mention Allen at all, each ad can slip in a key issue or Webb life story fact.
This would help circumvent the high cost of ad time on Washington area TV and could be a great low key way to introduce Jim to many more people.
The Lamont campaign run less than half as many ads as Lieberman did, but the overwhelming consensus was that Hillsman's unconventional ads were very effective. And no doubt, even an outsider could tell that Lamont's ads were very creative and well-worth the buck. The buzz effect of Hillsman's ads were tremendous.
I am so optimistic about Jim Webb winning.
I totally agree about Webb needing to get a creative person on his advertising team. Wellstone ran some wonderful ads when he was first starting out about having no money....
buzz...buzz
Grass roots support will ensure hard-support and committed votes. I also love some of these ideas for creative marketing. TV ads though are going to be essential. Hopefully some of these ads will start hitting the air in early September.
Pragmatism demands that concerned citizens move to the sensible center - and our candidates end up looking insufficiently partisan to our national compatriots. Bottom-line WE (progressives)need to strongly support our own candidates - because WE know the stakes involved, and difficulties that they face. The delivery of a Senate Dem majority can be Virginia's gift to the nation, but don't expect help anytime soon. It is OUR fight.
And those commercials are great - convey the message "in a New York Minute" ...er..10 seconds. Wish I could vote for him.