There are a bunch of interesting new polls out today, the results of which I'll summarize below courtesy of today's Hotline.*According to a Manchester Journal Inquirer/New London Day poll (conducted 8/1-8/3), Ned Lamont leads Joe Lieberman by 10 points, 53%-43%. The Democratic primary in Connecticut is today. My prediction? Lamont wins by 6-8 points, Lieberman is toast, bloggers rejoice, establishment Dems ponder whether to use the dull razor blades or sharp razor blades.
*According to the same poll, only 9% of Democrats in Connecticut say that Lieberman's support for Bush's Iraq War policy makes them "more likely" to support Lieberman. A whopping 56% say it makes them "less likely" to support "Joementum."
*A new ABC News/Washington Post poll has Democrats up in the "generic Congressional ballot" by 13 points, 52%-39%. And 53% of voters are in an "anti-incumbent mood" - bad news for Republicans like Frank Wolf, Thelma Drake, Tom Davis, Jo Ann Davis and Virgil Goode.
*The same poll indicates that, by a 16-point margin, voters are LESS likely to vote for a candidate who "support[s] Bush in many areas." Bad news for George "97% Bush Rubberstamp" Allen?
*The same poll has 39% of Americans blaming Hezbollah for the current fighting in the Middle East, while 7% blame Israel and 46% blame "both equally." Americans are evenly split on whether "Israeli bombing in Lebanon is justified."
*A new Gallup poll indicates that the top issues for Americans, as we approach Labor Day (and Election Day, just 90 days or so away), are the Iraq War (48%), "fuel/oil prices" (17%), "economy" (15%), "war/conflict in the Middle East" (14%), and "immigration" (13%). Since April, the situation in Iraq has shot up in peoples' priorities (from 29% to 48%), while immigration has fallen (from 20% to 13%).
*A new poll by the Siena Research Institute indicates that both Hillary Clinton and Al Gore would lose in New York, one of the bluest of "blue states," to John McCain or Rudy Giuliani in 2008. This one stunned me. To paraphrase the song, "if Clinton or Gore can't make it there, can they make it anywhere?" So what's the deal, New Yawkers?
By the way, please feel free to use this as an open thread to predict the Lamont-Lieberman results tonight.
Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign. The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.
On the otherhand, I don't know if anyone can offer an interpretation of the heavy turnout.
If it is low-information voters turned out by Lieberman's recent heavy GOTV, he could pull it out.
But the way Lieberman has been acting, I think he expects to lose, probably by more than the above prediction. His campaign cancelled two events for this afternoon. Lieberman is calling mayors and the like. And his campaign is flailing in their charges about bloggers and the like undermining their webpage - they had absolutely no security, no mirroring, and have already had to back down from several of their charges. There is a huge amount about this at dailykos.
I suspect we will know for sure by 11 PM, perhaps as early as 10, but not before that. We need some substantil numbers from New Haven and Bridgeport to have a real picture.
Lieberman's people knew early today he was going to lose. And thus they were trying to set up the scenario for people to turn to him as an independent in the general
normally in a primary you would not be able to call it early (by noon) unless margin was well over 10% -- of course, normally in a primary you don't get over 50% turnout.
If it is more than a 10% margin, that will be obvious no later than 11 PM.
I'm thinking that the 30,000 new Democratic registrants since May will have the deciding impact. I haven't seen anything to indicate who these new voters are.
However, as Lamont surged since May, it looks like these folks are his.
Note that DailyKos has tracked down the cause of Joe's failed website.
A Lamont win should be evidence of what our electorate wants.
This primary have a larger national impact then many realize, it may be the beginning of the revolution.
They want to hold us down, the want to silence us, they want to pretend we don't matter.
Will you let them?
What would the sons of liberty do?
I know what they might do.
They'd stick it to em!
It's not a left or right issues. It's AMERICAN issues that are more important than labels and lying.