There's an interesting analysis by Ben Tribbett over at Not Larry Sabato about Fairfax County turning progressively "bluer" each election. Ben's most stunning conclusions is this:
... "If all goes right, and the President drops about five more points, and we could be seeing a 100,000 vote Webb margin out of Fairfax County".That would do it.
Let's see, a 100,000-vote Webb margin in Fairfax, plus a 50,000-60,000-vote margin in Arlington and Alexandria? Add in another 30,000-vote margin in Richmond City, That would mean as high as a 190,000-vote margin for Jim Webb that George Allen would need to make up in the rest of the state.
Unfortunately for Allen, Jim Webb is potentially very strong in Hampton Roads due to his war hero status and also his former position as Navy Secretary. And Webb is potentially strong in Southwest Virginia as well, where the Scots-Irish Webb's family has deep roots. If Webb can even hold down Allen's margins in SWVA, I'd say it's "game over" for Boy George.
But will NOVA come through as NLS suggests? That will depend on two factors: 1) Webb raising enough money to advertise heavily in the expensive NOVA media market; and 2) a pumped-up, enthusiastic, engaged "netroots" backing Webb all the way. If both of these conditions are met, I believe that George Allen will have plenty of time to spend contemplating his next career, as opposed to rubberstamping President Bush or being bored out of his mind in the Senate.
It also means a truly big money media campaign in NoVa to neutralize Allen's big money YV and radio buys in that area PLUS a continued, flank speed assault by that enthusiastic ragtag volunteer army--- and that makes the professionals uneasy. The volunteers are the only ones who can successfully match the Republican's outstanding, direct drilling down GOTV efforts.
This means Webb must have a two-pronged campaign pulling together two fundamentally different approaches to winning elections (big money media plus a massive volunteer person-to-person high-touch effort), integrating them into a dynamic and focused whole. And letting 'er rip.
Can we do it? I believe we can, with good will all around and grim determination. Go Webb!
Webb can hammer on several issues which will prove extremely useful in this region:
"Economic fairness": Declining living/economic conditions of the middle/working classes. Wealthy elites grabbing a bigger slice of the pie while hard-working Americans just can't make ends meet. Working people who just want the opportunity to work can't find work which will support themselves and their families. "Offshore outsourcing", replacing American working people with foreign low wage workers is among the most egregious examples of the new economic paradigm.
Patriotism/War: Getting the U.S. into unnecessary and costly wars which injure the U.S. military, waste American lives, waste taxpayers' money and place additional burdens of debt on our children. (People who ride the "patriotism" issue as Bush/Allen have done set themselves up for a perfect fall when someone with credibility charges that they have lied and engaged in policies which actually injure the country and our military.