How Webb Can Beat Allen: By the Numbers

By: Dan
Published On: 6/18/2006 12:26:05 PM


In 2006, Jim Webb has a good opportunity to defeat George Allen.  A recent Rasmussen poll shows George Allen only up by 10 points (51% to 41%).  Even though George Allen is a current Senator, former Governor, former Congressman, and former Delagate, with 30 years as an elected official in Virginia, most polls taken this year have shown him hovering around 50%.  Consider the fact that often when these polls are performed, they leave out young people with cell phones (i.e. a lot of young professionals in Northern Virginia).  Also consider that these polls have been taken before most people in Virginia have even gotten a chance to hear Jim Webb+óGé¼Gäós side of the story.  A strong candidate like Jim Webb can clearly change minds before November rolls around.

Another reason Webb has an opportunity to win is that, like Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, he can keep the race close in conservative districts.  He has strong credibility across the voter spectrum and will benefit from strong Democratic challengers running for Congress in several districts who will help him compete. 

In this report, I looked at election results from 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, and the 2006 Democratic Primary, and came up with some conclusions on what goals the Webb campaign should set regarding key areas of the Commonwealth.  I focus primarily on the performance for individual Congressional districts because in 2006 the individual Congressional races will undoubtedly impact the Senate race. (Maps and information on each Congressional District are provided at the end of the document.)
Some notes on the years:
-In analyzing 2000, I was able to look at Allen+óGé¼Gäós first campaign.  This was a high turnout year due to the Presidential race.  My focus is primarily on the Senate race since the Presidential race was skewed by the myriad of other candidates.
-In analyzing 2001, I wanted to see what trends held in Warner+óGé¼Gäós race for Governor.  I found this year was less relevant than 2000.
-In analyzing 2002, I recognized that low turnout was apparently caused by the lack of a statewide race.  While Senior Republican Senator John Warner ran for re-election in 2002, he had no Democratic challenger.
-In analyzing 2004, I recognized there was no Senate race, so the Presidential race had more of an impact, and national issues seemed to drive certain districts.  2004 had the highest turnout of all the years examined.
-In analyzing 2005, I found perhaps the most relevant election to the 2006 race.  2005 serves as the best model for how a Democrat can win a statewide race.

Analysis
In 2000, George Allen won with only 52.3% of the vote. While this would generally be considered a good victory when challenging an incumbent (in this case Chuck Robb), keep in mind that he was running as a former Governor and former Congressman; he was aided by Bush+óGé¼Gäós victory; and Chuck Robb was impaired by a personal scandal.  In 2000, Robb won only 4 out of 11 Districts (Gore only won 3).  Allen kept the race close enough in Northern Virginia.  In Districts 8 and 11 he ceded only 72,000 votes to Robb, whereas Robb lost by 71,000 votes in the 7th District alone!

Since 2000, district lines have changed, but if you look at the 8th, 10th, and 11th Districts in 2000, Robb actually only won by only 15,000 votes (getting blown out by 57,000 votes in the 10th District).  In 2005, Kaine won all three of these districts, gaining nearly a 105,000-vote advantage in Northern Virginia (with much less turnout than in 2000).  By keeping it close in the conservative districts, winning the gerrymandered 3rd District by almost 64 thousand votes (about the same as Robb won by in 2000) and pulling off upsets in the 2nd and 5th Districts, Kaine actually won the majority of votes outside of Northern Virginia. 

Clearly, in order to win, Webb has to garner similar results to Kaine.  However, he will have a serious fundraising disadvantage, and will face a much stronger opponent.  Turnout will likely be similar to 2005 (where it was 44.96%) because of the relative importance of the 2006 campaign.  Remember that in 2002 (where turnout was only 39.4%) was a year without a Democratic challenger for the Senate race.  It was also a year when the country was more or less behind the President, and not compelled to want to change their leadership.

After reviewing the results of the Democratic Primary as well as all 5 of these previous November elections, I came up with five conclusions:

1) Webb needs to win Northern Virginia by 100,000 votes. 
This is possible, since many conservatives in Northern Virginia are military, and the entire region is trending increasingly towards Democratic candidates.  Arlington and Alexandria need to come out big for Webb.  We shouldn+óGé¼Gäót worry about a strong turnout from the conservative base in this area.  The key here is to get out the Democratic base, and to emphasize Webb+óGé¼Gäós strong progressive message, and his original opposition to the War in Iraq.

2) Webb needs to rebuild his image in the 3rd District. 
In the Democratic primary, Webb did very poorly in the 3rd District (covering Newport City, and parts of Hampton City, Norfolk City, and Richmond City) losing 6,000 votes to Miller, and getting his 2nd lowest vote-count of any Congressional District.  This is bad, because the 3rd District is heavily Democratic, and had the 4th highest turnout in the Democratic primary (of the 11 Districts).  The 3rd District has a large minority population that needs to know that Webb is behind them, and needs to be reminded of George Allen+óGé¼Gäós +óGé¼+ôConfederate+óGé¼-¥ fetish; his failure to support the honoring of Martin Luther King Day; and most importantly, his draconian voting record on issues concerning the working class.

3) Webb needs to keep it close in the 7th District.
The 7th District is heavily Republican, heavily pro-Allen, and has the highest voter turnout of any Republican district by far (voter turnout (by %) was highest here in 2000, 2004, and 2005).  In fact, the 7th District produced the highest overall number of votes in 2001, 2004, and 2005.  Each time the Republican dominated, especially in 2000.  Kaine lost to Kilgore here by over 12,600 votes in 2005.  In 2006, Webb needs to keep within 15,000 votes in this district to stay close to Allen.  While there is a Democrat running in this district, that campaign has barely gotten started, thus Webb cannot count on the Democratic challenger to help.  He will need a strong volunteer presence here to keep from getting blown out.

4) Webb needs to win at least 5 districts.
The bottom line in winning an election is winning as many districts as you can.  In 2005, Kaine won 6 of 11 Districts.  In 2001, Warner won 7 out of 11 Districts.  Webb will win the 3rd, the 8th, and the 11th and he will probably win the 10th.  However, he needs to win either the 2nd or the 5th to stay competitive.  The more districts you win, the less places your opponent has to make up votes they lose in Northern Virginia. For example, in 2000, Allen won 7 out of 11 Districts, and still only won by 4.5 points.

5) Webb cannot be blown out in any District.
Strong Democratic challengers can help Webb in the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 10th, and 11th Districts.  While he should win at least 4 of those districts, he won+óGé¼Gäót get such a boost in the 4th and 6th Districts where there is no Democratic challenger.  We talked about needing to keep close in the 7th District, but clearly, there is nowhere that can Webb can afford to cede a significant defeat.  We know that Congressman Rick Boucher will not give Webb a boost in the 9th District (Southwest Virginia) because Boucher is popular on his own.  In fact, Kaine lost the 9th District by 21,000 votes in 2005 (his largest defeat) and Kerry lost here by 50,000 in 2004.  Both Allen and Bush won this district by over 25,000 votes in 2000.  Warner pulled off a miracle victory here in 2001, but that is unlikely to happen to Webb.  Webb simply needs to keep within 15,000-20,000 votes in the 9th +óGé¼GÇ£ very possible.  That leaves the 4th and 6th Districts.  The 6th is more conservative than the 4th, but a big loss in either district could devastate Webb.  In 2005, Kaine lost by only 2,500 votes in the 4th, but lost by over 17,000 votes in the 6th.  Clearly, Webb cannot cede over 20,000 votes in these Central Virginia districts.

My conclusion: This is a statewide race that requires tremendous organization in each District, especially in the population centers.  What we can assume from his 2000 victory, and the polls taken in 2006, is that George Allen is not that popular a Senator.  A popular Senator should have at least 55-60% of the people behind them, especially if they are in a state that favors their political party.  Webb can win this race, but it will take countering Allen in his strong areas, and flushing out voters in his weak ones.  Volunteers and grassroots are essential because Webb will probably be outspent 3 to 1 or 4 to 1.  The bottom line is that victory is up to us.  We must have a presence everywhere.  We must travel to other parts of the Commonwealth.  We cannot afford an Allen victory.

SOURCES
Past Virginia Election Results
2005 Election Results by Congressional District
2006 Democratic Primary Results by Congressional District

Congressional District Information and Maps
District #1 covers Fredericksburg to Williamsburg and the inland coast of the Chesapeake Bay.
District #2 covers Hampton, Norfolk, Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore.
District #3 covers Henrico County, Newport City, and parts of Hampton City, Norfolk City, Portsmouth City, Richmond City.
District #4 covers much of inland Southeastern Virginia, including Chesapeake, Emporia, Franklin, Petersburg, and Suffolk.
District #5 covers South-central Virginia from Charlottesville to Danville
District #6 covers Harrisonburg to Roanoke and areas on the West Virginia border.
District #7 covers Central Virginia from Richmond to the Eastern Shenandoah Valley
District #8 covers Arlington and Alexandria, and most other areas inside the Beltway.
District #9 covers Southwest Virginia from Blacksburg to the Tennessee border
District #10 covers much of Northern Virginia including all of Northwest Virginia from McLean to Front Royal to Winchester.
District #11 covers Fairfax City, outer Fairfax County, and parts of Prince William County

MAPS OF CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
Click here for a map of Congressional districts in Virginia and across the United States
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Comments



7th District (DukieDem - 6/18/2006 4:15:09 PM)
As a resident of the 7th, I can testify to the fact that Jim Webb could really cut his margins close here. I know there's an underground group of activists here that would work day and night if they had a candidate who could beat Allen. Now if the campaign can just right their ship and get organized..


Thanks (Dan - 6/18/2006 9:23:06 PM)
I think everyone should read this post and get a sense of the voting trends.  We can all work together to meet our goals.


SW Va (mkfox - 6/18/2006 9:51:42 PM)
Hopefully folks like Rep. Boucher campaign where I live in the Mountain Empire should also help Webb.


Most important... (Arlington Mike - 6/18/2006 9:54:04 PM)
I think the MOST important thing will be to find a way to get folks in Norfolk, Newport, Virginia Beach, Tidewater region out in droves to support Webb.  This should be a natural for him - a Democratic leaning area, with a big working class presence and a huge military contingent.  His poor primary showing was very concerning to me, and I haven't decided if it was a race thing, a "liberal" thing or simply a "TV ads and fliers" traditional form of outreach that won support.  But that has got to change - this shouldn't just be an area where people vote for him, this needs to be an area where we do WELL.

Northern Virginia is critically important, to pile up a huge voting margin, and the big performance in the primary by NOVA Dems is encouraging.  But the Tidewater area will be a whole different ballgame.



NoVA by 100,000 votes? (LAS - 6/18/2006 10:54:03 PM)
Wow, that's daunting. Do you mean NoVA to include the 8th, 10th, & 11th?


Yes (Dan - 6/19/2006 10:28:11 AM)
I mean the 8th, 10th, and 11th.  In 2000, Allen got 57,000 more votes in the 10th than Robb did.  Sure, the district lines were a little different, but there is NO WAY that could happen this year.  Robb still only lost by 4.5 points.