One of the myths that bothers me the most about George Allen is how supposedly "popular" he is in Virginia, and how "strong" he is as a candidate. Well, UVA political scientist Larry Sabato disagrees. According to an article ("Allen has stiff opposition in race to keep Senate seat") by Knight Ridder chief political correspondent Steven Thomma:
[George Allen] is weaker than at any time in his career. He has never changed and Virginia has. Virginia has moderated. Allen has boxed himself in with 97 percent support for the Bush administration. Now, President Bush is below 40 percent approval in Virginia. And the Iraq war is unpopular, even in the Tidewater, which is a very military area.
Meanwhile, Virginia has now elected two Democrats - Mark Warner and Tim Kaine - successively as Governor. The General Assembly is moving inexorably in the "blue" direction. And now, Jim Webb has come along as a person who almost EXACTLY mirrors the political trends in Virginia as a whole. Here's Webb on his personal political evolution:
My experience is representative. I grew up in a Democratic household, went to the Republican Party principally on national security issues. A lot of people were never fully comfortable with the Republican Party on economic or social issues. They look at what's happened with national security, particularly the rush to war in Iraq, and are looking for a different way.
"Looking for a different way." Yep, that pretty much sums up where Americans are at politically these days. Overwhelmingly, Americans say that the country is headed in the "wrong direction." Also overwhelmingly, they disapprove of the job that the Republican Congress is doing. And increasingly, there are calls for a another way or even a another party. In other words, Americans are looking for a change from George W. Bush and George Felix Allen.
On Iraq, for instance, the latest poll indicates that Americans "oppose" the war by a 16-point margin (54% oppose it, 38% favor it). Only 7% of Americans believe that things are going "very well" over there. And by a 12-point margin, Americans want to "set a timetable for withdrawal [from Iraq] by announcing that it will remove all of its troops from Iraq by a certain date."
Enter Jim Webb. described by Steven Thomma as "a decorated combat veteran who opposed the Iraq war from the onset." Regarding the "decorated combat veteran" description, if you haven't read the full text citation for Jim Webb's Navy Cross, which he earned for extreme heroism in Vietnam, I strongly urge you to do so. The last sentence sums it all up about Jim Webb:
By his courage, aggressive leadership, and selfless devotion to duty, First Lieutenant Webb upheld the highest traditions of the Marine Corps and of the United States Naval Service.
So how does George Allen compete against THAT, especially in a state that has "moderated?" How does Allen defend his 97% rubber stamp support of George W. Bush, when Bush is not particularly popular (around 40% approval) in Virginia? How does Allen simultaneously run for the Republican Presidential 2008 presidential nomination as a hard-right-wing ideologue while taking on a moderate, populist war hero for Senate back home in Virginia? Finally, why's Allen even RUNNING for Senate, when he says "I made more decisions in half a day as governor than you can make in a whole week in the Senate...It's too slow for me?"
This is going to be a hell of a race.
Boil down the policy concepts. What did the Democrats really present this week? Fairness. Justice. The Common Good. Did you get a sense of those core principles when Senator Reid presented the agenda? I didn't. It may be that we just need to tweak our rhetoric to articulate these core principles, rather than thinking that these grand and passionate ideas are implied in the minutia of our domestic policy proposals.
I think she's right. Fairness, justice, and the common good clarify that new direction on so many things. Including national security.
And fairness, justice, and the common good are certainly a different way from what we're seeing now. They give clear direction to that different way if you ask me. They tie policy to core principles.
Yes, we're looking for a different way. And not just some random different way. Fairness - what a novel idea. Same goes for justice. And it's time to get the common good back on the table.
He won that election comfortably because he had an incredibly bad candidate for an opponent in Mary Sue Terry
He won his Senate seat becaue Robb didn't want to run again, didn't really campaign until the last three weeks. Allen outspent him in hard money (not to mention a hue amountn of soft money) 10 million to 6.6 million. yes, Allen won the seat by 4.3%, but at a time when W was carrying the presidential vote by about 8 points.
Allen has NEVER been a strong state-wide candidate, has never had a candidate take it to him the way Webb will, and despite the money advantage with which he starts and the attacks on Webb already begun by his campaign, he is in real trouble and he knows it.
All you need to know about Larry Sabato is that he said the Doug Wilder could win statewide against Mrs. Dalton "when hell freezes over."