One of my favorite writers, Chris Cillizza, has yet ANOTHER excellent analysis over at his Washington Post blog, "The Fix." This time, it's about how Jim Webb can beat George Allen. I've been thinking about this a lot myself, and concluded a couple months ago that Webb needs to run a hybrid campaign between what Tim Kaine did in 2005 - urban/suburban/exurban - and what Mark Warner did in 2001 - heavier rural emphasis than Kaine. Is this possible? Absolutely! Here's Chris Cillizza:
Jarding, who was intimately involved in Mark Warner's gubernatorial victory in 2001, said Webb can win the Senate race because he will create a hybrid between the rural strategy that led to the Warner win and Gov. Tim Kaine's strength in previous Republican strongholds in the outer Northern Virginia suburbs of Fairfax and Loudoun counties.
Hey, that Jarding guy's pretty damn smart, coming to the same conclusion I did, eh? :) Ha.
Seriously, though, here's the thing with Jim Webb - and with Jarding's "hybrid" strategy - that's so great. As a Democrat, he's obviously going to do well in traditionally Democratic areas, plus areas turning "blue" (Loudoun, Prince William). That was Tim Kaine's winning strategy. In addition, given Webb's rural/SWVA roots, he can do quite well in that part of the state. That was Mark Warner's winning strategy. Finally, given Webb's military and former Republican background, he can do great among veterans and other military and also moderate Republicans dissatisfied with the Bush Administration. That was neither Warner nor Kaine's strategy, so that's a net plus for Webb.
In other words, on PAPER at least, Jim Webb can combine the best of both worlds - Mark Warner's AND Tim Kaine's winning strategies - and add in strengths of his own to boot. If he does that, he will win big this November, possibly even bigger than Kaine beat Kilgore. However, as Cillizza points out:
...[Webb] has to prove he can raise the money to compete against Allen, a worry given the whispers we hear about Webb's disinterest in dialing for dollars. Then there's Allen's charisma on the campaign trail compared with Webb, who still seems to be getting used to the backslapping performances demanded of any political candidate.
Yeah, you gotta raise money, you gotta kiss babies, and you gotta kiss ass to be elected these days. Maybe that's always been the case. And George "California Cowboy" Allen - despite being a damn bad Senator - is damn good at all those things, no question. Unfortunately, raising money, kissing babies and kissing ass don't make you any less "bored" in the Senate, any less of a Bush 97% rubberstamp, or any less of an intellectual/policy lightweight. And in the case of George Allen, "less" is most certainly not "more."
The question is, can Jim Webb get the money and make the connection with Virginia voters that Mark Warner did and that Tim Kaine did? If so, he'll win big time in November. If not, he won't. No matter what strategy he follows, hybrid or otherwise.
Thanks.
Also, I would point out that Jim Webb is LOVED by Virginia's Senior Senator, John Warner, another former Secretary of the Navy.
Finally, neither Warner nor Kaine had deep family roots in SWVA like Webb does, nor his war record.
This is going to be VERY interesting!
And Im sure everyone over in Hampton Roads wouldn't mind having two former secretaries of the navy representing them in the Senate. It will sure make holding onto those bases very easy.
Webb has a presence and a larger than life story that will cast a shadow over Little Boy George. Building the narrative and contrasting them are the important thing here.
Also, as stated on earlier posts, from the debate on Hardball last night, we can see that Allen's brain (should Dick Wadhams be called Karl Rove's Mini-me?) has already decided on parsing all of Webb's previous statements and trying to cast him as a flip-flopper. (Wonder where they got that strategy?) If we thought Miller's mail was bad...just wait! Since Allen voted 96-97% with George Bush, the only question we have to ask is does this guy have the ability for independent thought, or does he go directly to the RNC for talking points?
Agree with Lowell that this will be an interesting race, possibly historic. I am sooooo glad that I am a Democrat.
I don't think she killed herself after I talked to her, but I could be wrong. It seemed more like a novelty story than anything else. She was just a kid after all.
I met another guy, a German war hero, who, as a young soldier, met the dictator three times-each time he received the Reich's highest medal for valor. I had a very interesting conversation with him.
As to what you said; actually, I can totally understand. Sometimes, I wonder what I would do if I had the opportunity to shake hands with a powerful figure I disliked and did not agree with.
And I realize I definitely wouldn't kill myself.
I also wouldn't kiss them. :)
America Believes in these things, Republicans don't. Democrats provide moral leadership, Republicans can't govern. That's why Virginia needs Jim Webb, and why 2006 will serve as a stinging rebuke to George Bush, George Allen and the right-wing extremists who now control the republican party.
Webb will add the moderate wisdom of a Senator John Warner (also a former Navy Secretary), to the Responsible leadership and rural renaissance provided by Tim Kaine and Mark Warner respectively.
Webb is the the tip of the tidal wave that gives Virginia and America an enduring Democratic Majority.
As always, it's gonna be all about turnout. The Dems need to be excited about voting for Webb.
Phucking wedge issues....
But I disagree, to a point, about the turnout. I think Jim Webb brings a new dynamic to the race - something that's been missing in recent Democratic candidates. I'm not thinking it's all about GOTV because Webb can win over many moderate Republicans, Reagan Democrats, and Progressives.
Sure, there's always a turnout aspect, but this time we need to be going after votes that haven't been ours for a long time. During recent elections I've grown tired of talking about how to get our party out more than they get their party out.
Screw that - let's go win over a chunk of the votes they've been counting on for years. Let them bring out the gay marriage amendment voters while we bring their moderates over to Webb.
I'd like to suggest that those of us who voted for Webb reach out to Miller supporters and gently make our case for Webb. I'm sure they are feeling somewhat bruised from the primary.
Username: votedem
PersonId: 1552
Created: June 16, 2006 at 03:09:35 MST
Smile - it keeps people wondering what you are up to.