Mudcat Saunders: "the bloggers were driving this"

By: Lowell
Published On: 6/15/2006 7:42:16 AM

Marc Fisher has another fine column in today's Washington Post.  I don't mean this as a backhanded compliment, but Fisher is rapidly becoming my favorite writer on Virginia politics over at the Post.  Great job, Marc!

Anyway, today's column essentially asks the questions, "what if they held an election and nobody showed up?"  Well, that's what happened Tuesday, particularly outside of Northern Virginia.  In Southwest Virginia, turnout was beneath pathetic, down into disgraceful and unconscionable territory.  Yeah, I realize that a festival featuring "bubble-gum-blowing, watermelon-seed-spitting and limbo contests" is important, but so is Democracy.  And yesterday, in places like Norton, people chose the bubble gum and limbo.

In contrast, NOVA had relatively strong turnout, accounting for 40% of the entire Virginia vote.  In Arlington, we had 9% turnout, which is not bad considering that the statewide average was just 3%.  Arlington's 9% turnout on Tuesday also compares highly favorably with turnout for last year's Lt. Governor primary, 3.8%.  What drove this turnout?

Well, according to Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, a senior Webb advisor, "Roanoke-based backcountry strategist" and "mastermind behind Connecticut-born Mark Warner's embrace of NASCAR culture in his run for governor five years ago," the answer was the blogs.  Mudcat says that there's "[n]o question about it, the bloggers were driving this."  Mudcat also believes that:

..even if Webb cannot match Allen's staggering $7 million campaign kitty, the challenger has shown that he can use old-fashioned grass-roots word of mouth and newfangled Internet campaigning to spread the word about this ex-Republican military man who wants to bring Reagan Democrats back to the party of their youth.

Wow, that's a lot of pressure for us lil' ol' bloggers, if it's true.  Of course, there are those who believe that bloggers' influence on this race was highly overrated.  And that may very well be true.  But not in Mudcat's opinion. And not in Marc Fisher's either:

The only place on the planet where this election was a really exciting big deal was on the blogs that live and breathe Virginia politics, and their enthusiasm was a significant contributor to the somewhat better turnout in broadband-rich Northern Virginia.

So which is it, RK readers? Did blogs help push turnout in NOVA and, as Ben Tribbett declares, represent "the first major election that bloggers have ever won for a candidate" (Jim Webb, in this case)?  Or is Virginia Centrist right when he argues, perhaps with tongue firmly planted in cheek, that "bloggers are meaningless?"  Or perhaps the truth lies somewhere in the middle, with heavily trafficked  blogs like NLS and RK pushing turnout in NOVA but not in the rest of the state, where apparently alsmot nobody reads blogs?

What do you think?  Consider this an open thread to discuss the role of blogs in this Tuesday's election.

[UPDATE:  Chap Petersen has his thoughts here.  Very perceptive as always...


Comments



Bloggers Sure Drove Webb into Race (Elaine in Roanoke - 6/15/2006 8:53:15 AM)
I certainly believe it was blogs like Raising Kaine that gave Jim Webb hope that he could accomplish something if he entered the race.
Also, I personally feel that those of us who have given up on the "traditional" media as our main source of news and use the Internet for information were much more likely to vote in the election and to vote for Jim Webb.
Print media coverd the upcoming election somewhat, but most people still get their news - unfortunately - from television. There was almost no coverage of the race on television here in the Roanoke Valley.
The thing that really burned me up was that the state party did absolutely nothing to encourage people to vote, to publicize the fact that there was a primary election, to encourage turnout. I know that they hate primaries, in part because the outcome can't be controlled as much as a caucus or convention. That's why I like primaries! Believe you me...Jim Webb would not have been able to capture the nomination in a traditional caucus/convention.
The old Byrd machine fragmented election times and dates so much in order to control outcome that Virginia is a pretty bad place to get decent turnout. And, I won't even get into "open primaries."
Those Democrats "plugged into" the Internet were the voters most aware of the candidates and the issues in the primary race. The blogs proved their importance, even if they did not determine the outcome; however, NOVA may have pointed the way to the future and may have "crashed the gates" in this victory for Webb.
Kudos to Raising Kaine and others for the pivotal role they played in our even having a candidate of the quality and significance of James Webb to vote for. You go, folks!


You know (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 9:07:18 AM)
I always wondered why along many major highways, there weren't huge billboards with the date of the primary, the party it tied in with, and pictures and names of the two candidates, with their web addresses.  The party really doesn't do anything to GOTV except tell the volunteers they meet to GOTV.


I've wondered while watching the noon news broadcast on channel six... (Left Wing - 6/15/2006 9:44:20 AM)
...why they have to devote the last five minutes to recipes...as if we need another way to make potato salad!  They could have used that time to educate the public on an important upcoming election with facts about candidates, information on volunteering, events, etc....


The primary was necessary for a Webb Victory (Josh - 6/15/2006 9:07:23 AM)
We campaigned hard for it within the party.

Webb's potential influence is too important to leave in the hands of a few core Democratic party members.  We needed to open up the electability issue and pass it to the people.  I think Webb's appeal will be broader in the General, ultimately the negative Miller money machine acted as a foil driving support for Webb down, but those who chose to evaluate the general election know that Webb will defeat Allen in November



AND (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 9:09:28 AM)
a hrad primary was neccessary-Miller is a pussycat compared to Allen.


Bloggers Moving Forward (alex schultes - 6/15/2006 9:24:10 AM)
I agree that Bloggers made a huge difference in the NOVA area. Let’s face it, folks in NOVA were more inclined to visit the Blog sites and, I believe, were much more interested in the primary than in other areas of the state.

Now the question is: How do we extend the Blog’s reach to other parts of the state? I’m not sure that we can; but I believe that those who visit the Blogs can make a huge impact throughout the state by:

Writing the local newspapers throughout the state and contacting their reporters about:

“Webb’s Brigade” of over 3000 volunteers – a true grass  roots campaign not before seen in Virginia.

Using the internet (The Webb campaign site) for fund raising.

Articulating Jim’s strengths and positions in Letters to the Editor and on radio “call-in” talk shows.

Articulating George Allen’s failings in Letters to the Editor and on radio “call-in” talk shows.

These are but a few of the things that can be done. Perhaps there are those who could put together Blogs for “Veterans for Webb”, “Republicans for Webb”, etc. Also, let’s reach out to those Blogs that were pro-Miller. Get them on board.

Just a few thoughts… Thanks.



Raising Kaine Made it Happen! (David M - 6/15/2006 12:35:35 PM)
Let's not kid ourselves, without the wisdom of Lowell, Josh, Lee and others who first had the insight to start the Draft Jim Webb movement, there would be no such enthusiasm here in the Virginia Democratic party. Those first early joiners and those that joined along the way also helped create the victory that we enjoyed on Tuesday and that we will enjoy this fall.

Thanks to all of them for giving all Virginia Democrats a reason to rally throughout the summer. As much as this campaign was driven by the integrity and courage of Jim Webb, it was also fueled by the tireless efforts of Raising Kaine to keep us all informed on the current breaking news related to all the important primary issues.



Don't Forget Meetups (Elaine in Roanoke - 6/15/2006 10:11:15 AM)
Another way to energize people for a candidate like Jim Webb is to use the Meetup concept. It certainly won't win an election, but it allows people to meet and have the human contact that the Internet by its nature precludes. The two work together well.


Meetup Concept Yes, meetup.com NO! (snolan - 6/15/2006 11:34:39 AM)
I absolutely agree that the concept of local regular meetups is crucial for keeping interested voters connected with the campaigns and with their community.  It is a mix of blog community and regular volunteer nights that made Roemmelt's campaign so much fun to work in last year.

I have to say I tried joining the meetup.com stuff offered by James Socas and other candidates in 2004, and it was a miserable failure.  Meetup.com was an email address harvesting scheme and it spammed the snot out of my addresses, the candidates never showed up and most of the meetups were cancelled.

Great concept, needs work...

I am convinced that the candidate's own websites can function as the meetup coordination center for each campaign.

Someone is trying an experiment with a Webb campaign google group - it will be interesting to see how that works.



Primary post-mortem (Reen - 6/15/2006 10:38:01 AM)
Most clever blogger: what's your name?  Why, you, of course.

Sharpest dissection tools: The one's that stayed in the box until after it was all over.

Biggest Virginia Democrat: Don McEachin.  How tall is that guy?

Best post-primary advice: Alice Marshall "on to victory."

Three biggest factors in the primary:
  ** Webb's record and character
  ** Miller's negative mail and calls
  ** Virginia blogs



There is much more that we can do (Rebecca - 6/15/2006 10:41:50 AM)
There is much more that we can do to help progressive candidates. DFA Fairfax is donating (thanks to Tom Goldsmith) hosting and software to the friends of Andrew Hurst for a Tom Davis Truth site. I am training the administrator and have sent her letters to Tom Davis from members of the National Security Whistle-blowers Coalition. The coalition has given persmission to post the letters on the site.

Also, when we do formal interviews of the candidates and post them it is very helpful. I interviewed both Hurst and Longmyer using the same questions and posted both interviews on the DFa Fairfax site. (www.dfa-farifax.com)

I'm sure there is more we can do. I am looking into getting films with an alternative message out for public showing. We need to think outside the box to get the progressive message out.

This proves that money isn't everything, although it helps.



The real test will be... (va.walter - 6/15/2006 10:48:20 AM)
what can bloggers do in the general?  No question the blogosphere influenced this race.  That isn't surprising considering this was a race decided by "thousands."  The real test is whether the blogosphere can influence a race when it'll be decided by "million."  We'll have to wait and see.


Do you think the Democratic Virginia blogosphere (Lowell - 6/15/2006 11:02:56 AM)
influenced last year's Kaine victory?  How about any House of Delegates races?  I don't know, but I'm curious what people think.  I DO know that Tim Kaine thinks we did a great job on the blogs...


Kaine. (va.walter - 6/15/2006 11:16:59 AM)
While I think the blogosphere helped Kaine, my opinion on that race is that Jerry Kilgore was just such an AWFUL candidate and ran such an awful campaign that it didn't matter.

To me, the blogosphere has proven it can identify and encourage good candidates, help refine some issues, create passion among the universe of its members and certainly help in a primary.  The great unanswered question is whether the blogosphere can truly influence a statewide race (especially one where the blogosphere supports the underdog).

Personally, I doubt the blogosphere (as it exists today) can truly impact a race like the Allen-Webb one.  At least we get to find out in a few months.



I completely agree with you. (phriendlyjaime - 6/15/2006 11:26:26 AM)
I couldn't tell you how many die hard reps voted rep down the ticket, yet voted for kaine.  Kilgore was a joke, and Allen and his supporters are no comparison.


I am glad Kaine blogged, but I got more out of RaisingKaine than Tim's blog (snolan - 6/15/2006 11:41:37 AM)
For me, and several friends, raisingkaine is how we got involved in the 2005 election in the first place.  Kudos.

Huge impact.

Tim's own blog was marginally interesting, and I think that is a fact of any state-wide campaign, so I am not faulting the writers of that blog.  Problem is the area and the scope are too big for a single blog.

Anyone running for U.S. Senate will have the same issue, too big a scope and lack of focus.

House of Delegates, State Senators, U.S. Congress: totally the opposite!  The campaign websites of all those candidates should be tightly focused, dynamic communities.  That will make or break campaigns of the future.

For the bigger-area races I think we need to have blogs that cover the issues rather than the personal face to face announcements of the candidates.



I agree with this 100% (Lowell - 6/15/2006 12:12:43 PM)
"The campaign websites of all those candidates should be tightly focused, dynamic communities.  That will make or break campaigns of the future."


Bloggers yes, but their blogs? Probably not... (snolan - 6/15/2006 11:24:12 AM)
Just my own personal experience.  I've been blogging about politics and races for months.  The only people who paid any attention were fellow bloggers and the few people I talked with face to face and suggested they read my blog for more details (that counts as face to face in my book).

Because I have been blogging, and reading other blogs, I decided to hold a fund raiser and send out evites and email invitations that got people's attention.  I personally know about 8 people who went and voted in the primary because I invited them to a Webb fund-raiser and that reminded them to go vote and find out more about the race.

A couple of people had trouble understanding the evite, and called or stopped me in passing, and they also are getting involved now.

Did my blog help turnout?  Probably not.
Did my habit of blogging and activism help, certainly did.



Actually, a couple of blogs do help! (snolan - 6/15/2006 11:28:36 AM)
Thinking back a little, my other experience was with the Bruce Roemmelt campaign and blog.  When he was running for Delegate last year I know of a few people who went out and voted because they got very involved with the discussions hosted on his blog.

They had a candidate who was actively posting and responding to their questions.  They could participate in civic discussions with the campaign staff.  They felt they had a stake in the outcome.

That has to be the most effective and powerfully motivating solution I have seen yet (to the problem of voter apathy).  We need to copy that format for all local races and figure out a similar recipe for the bigger races (like U.S. Senate), as I doubt that will be as feasible in those large area races.



Bruce Roemmelt "gets it" (Lowell - 6/15/2006 12:13:41 PM)
As did his campaign manager, James Walkinshaw, and several other people on his campaign team.


We love 'Fireman Bruce' (that's what my wife calls him)... (Loudoun County Dem - 6/15/2006 12:18:58 PM)
Getting Bruce to join Dave Poisson in the House is our goal next year here in Loudoun County.


here's someone in SW Va who reads blogs (Nell - 6/15/2006 1:53:49 PM)
The early buzz about Webb made its way among activists in our local party because we talked it up at HQ during the Kaine race -- thanks to Raising Kaine.  Every bit of important news about the campaigns, Miller's and Webb's, came through blogs rather than through the party.

Given that absolutely no direction came from the campaign itself in terms of suggestions for volunteer activity, I depended on my own experience to do the few things I could do alone -- sending the op-ed from the Roanoke Times to friends, making sure a letter to the editor got in. Still haven't gotten the bumpersticker I ordered months ago... and I gave a sizable chunk of money.

Frankly, I thought the state party's lack of communication with local parties and the public about the primary was shameful.  In future, we'll just have to assume no publicity help is coming and plan to run ads ourselves locally (and get free media, like letters to editor and yard signs with the primary date).

Turnout was 11% in Lexington, and better than the statewide average in Rockbridge County.  And we're Webb country over here: 3-1 in Lexington, 2-1 in the county.



Hi Nell - I have a couple of bumper stickers left. (Kathy Gerber - 6/15/2006 8:59:03 PM)
Email your snail mail address to me at kath at skatha.net and I will send them to you! (change "at" to @ )

I've already marked my calendar for the Buena Vista Labor Day parade! 

Impressive job over there in Rockbridge and Lexington!  I'm very impressed.  I'm over in Nelson.  Lynchburg is very active, too, and Mark is working like crazy in Cumberland County.

And thanks for all of your other info.  This really was a grassroots effort.  It wouldn't hurt for some extrovert to talk with Appo and Amherst Dems.