Reports from the field continued...

By: Rob
Published On: 6/13/2006 2:05:30 PM

It's 2 p.m.  Do you know where your voters are? Statewide voter turnout appears to be low, with two potential exceptions.

VC sees high turnout in Arlington. Lowell capped off the last diary with optimism for the Webb camp in that city:

There's almost no doubt about it from everything I'm hearing, Arlington's going for Webb by a comfortable margin, maybe as high as 2:1.  How many votes?  Maybe 7000 total? If it's 2:1, that means about 4,600 for Webb and 2,300 for Miller in Arlington.

According to NLS, the other high turnout location appears to be in McLean - Miller's home base.

So, might Arlington and McLean cancel each other out? If so, then last minute GOTV efforts in other parts of the state might tip this election.  Ultra-low turnout is reported so far in pro-Webb areas of SWVA and the Beach, and the same for Miller's Richmond stronghold.

As the last diary is getting unwieldy, let's move to a fresh thread.  Keep the reports coming on GOTV efforts and the afternoon rush hour voting.

UPDATE: teacherken has posted a well-written diary of his day at Kos, which includes this pro-Webb assessment based admittedly on "speculation":

Turnout varies around the state.  Based on early checks it is quite low in Richmond, which should be one of Miller's better areas.  It is higher than normal in the coal counties, which are heavily Webb.  It is somewhat light in Norfolk but they tend to be afternoon voters.  Here in N Virginia it varies from precinct to precinct, but in general seems higher than predicted in Arlington and in some spots in Fairfax County.

Based on the phone calls I did, which were all to N Virginia, I will be surprised if Miller carries any major jurisdiction in NoVa.  He may be close in Alexandria because he has so many local endorsements.  But what I am picking up is that moving the party together behind Webb has already begun, and includes a number of people who publicly endorsed Miller.

What informal exit polling of which I am aware shows no precinct sampled in Arlington where Webb was drawing less than 55%, and that figure was in a precinct whose chair is a strong Miller supporter.


(Hat tip to james)

UPDATE: NLS claims that he'll be ready to call the election at 5 p.m.

UPDATE: Rick Howell reports on extremely light turnout in Lynchburg.  Waldo has similar reports in C'ville.

UPDATE: VC gives some impressions:

1. Gerry Connolly robo-dialed voters for Miller county-wide. This includes neighborhoods near the MetroWest development, where he is enemy #1. More than one voter said they were voting against Connolly (for Webb).
2. High military turnout for a Democratic Primary. Wonder what that means?
3. Richmond, a pro-Miller area, has low turnout.
4. Pro-Webb rural areas have low turnout (as expected).
5. High turnout in Winchester seems to suggest crossover voting (by R's for Placeholder Candidate Harris Miller).
6. I've yet to hear any anecdotes about voters reading blogs. Hmmm...what could that mean?
Could it mean that I'm wasting my time with these updates?!

UPDATE: Times Dispatch provides not-so-breaking news that turnout was low statewide.  No further analysis. Thanks guys.


[UPDATE by Lowell:  Ben Tribbett, aka "Not Larry Sabato", calls it for Jim Webb just before 5:30 PM.  Let's see if Ben maintains his "99.5% accuracy" after this.  My guess is that he will.]


Comments



I'm hearing big turnout in Fairfax City (Lowell - 6/13/2006 2:17:02 PM)
That's Chap territory..great news for Webb!

I'm also hearing "Webb blowout in Vienna."  (Passed 2005 numbers right after noon; almost everyone voting for Webb)



Into the field! (Nichole - 6/13/2006 2:19:04 PM)
I am going back out into Henrico and Richmond..... until then... fairwell!


I was voter 187 in Walker precint, C'ville, 2:15 p.m. (msnook - 6/13/2006 2:33:01 PM)
I brought two friends with me, so by the time I left, 188 people had voted.


TeacherKen and Kos (phriendlyjaime - 6/13/2006 2:39:58 PM)
great diary oevr there-but don't sit too long!  ;)

here



Just off a 8 hour shift in Eastern Loudoun County... (Loudoun County Dem - 6/13/2006 2:45:59 PM)
In my district (Sugarland) Webb signs outnumber Miller signs more than 3 to 1 (mostly mine).

Turnout is low in most precincts but mine (Lowe's Island) was at +- 100 voters at least 60% Webb (perhaps higher, the only person who admitted voting for Miller also admitted she is a republican and had a bush bumper sticker). I was getting thumbs up from most voters.

I changed at least 4 voters to Webb (Answering the question 'Which one is the Democrat?' I responded 'The one who Was SECNAV for Reagan or the one that testified in favor of Ashcroft for AG?', worked every time...)

All the poll workers I've talked to were voting for Webb.

5 sigs to pledge 'No' on marriage amendment.

I know that the 10th cd is supposed to be Miller territory but I see absolutely no evidence to support that.

Back to work...



Even after 8 hours at the precinct I can't get enough... (Loudoun County Dem - 6/13/2006 4:41:13 PM)
I went back for the 4:00 change to make sure the table was covered.

I had one voter who couldn't decide (but was leaning Webb) and she asked another question about Miller when a friend of her's showed up pointing at my Webb shirt saying 'vote for him, vote for him!!!' I didn't have to say anything else except 'Thanks for voting today'.

I'm heading back for the last 2 hours...

LETS PUSH THIS THING OVER THE FINISH LINE!!!



From what I hear... (Craig - 6/13/2006 2:49:29 PM)
...a lot of Miller supporters are just not voting at all, at least in southern Fairfax County, because they got turned off to their own guy by his negative campaign.


Another report from Western Henrico (Laura86 - 6/13/2006 2:49:38 PM)
My dad just voted and he was #69, apparently the poll workers were very relieved to see somebody there.  Keep your fingers crossed...Go Webb!


What's it looking like for Webb out there? (Lowell - 6/13/2006 2:50:04 PM)


Richmond city (phriendlyjaime - 6/13/2006 2:54:58 PM)
going for Miller.  Big time.  A couple of precincts have Miller workers who have been around the Richmond Dem party for decades-they vote for who that person tells them to after the kiss hello.

I had a really nasty woman call us "ugly and classless" and how "fucked up" it was that we were all working for a "fucking Republican."  I laughed and said to the girl collecting gay marriage amenddment sigs, "Miller voters are angry people."  She replied she wasn't voting.  A couple people told me yay Webb, more actually told me yay Miller.  Or they just backed away from me like I had the plague-maybe it was my Kerry sticker.  ;)

We have more signs-they have a few more volunteers, who btw are having a great time telling anyone that asks that Tim Kaine and Warner have endorsed Miller, but only in private.

I hope you guys can pull it off, looks like we are going to get beat.  I guess the race card while we were winning the sign war paid off, huh?



yep, from what I hear, suspicion of Webb in Richmond (JennyE - 6/13/2006 3:01:16 PM)
Miller played the race card. Just disgusting.


Funny what a difference a few miles makes (Laura86 - 6/13/2006 3:05:00 PM)
Out here in Henrico where I live it's about 99% white, very little fuss has been made about race.  However we did get bombarded by Miller lit that outnumbered Webb lit about 3:1, same with the robo-calls, but nobody is really passionate either way.  I have had people ask me who I'm voting for, I said Webb, so they decided to vote for him as well.  As I said earlier, keep your fingers crossed!


"Only in private?" (Craig - 6/13/2006 3:33:21 PM)
So they endorsed Miller, but they're too embarassed to make his case to the public?  Hardly complementary of Miller, even if it is true, which seems higly suspect.


Well, (Laura86 - 6/13/2006 2:53:10 PM)
The few Democrats around here I'm pretty sure are voting for Webb.  There could be some party raiding for Miller though, I'm not sure.


beth el in 22304 (pvogel - 6/13/2006 3:13:55 PM)
very very low low turnout.......
the voter apathy is astounding......
Thats bad for miller in  pro miller alexandria.

Its the first time I saw no campaign workers at the polling place when I went to vote.
Total turn out at 3pm  139 dems, 40 republicans



Marc Fisher of the Post Asking for Predictions/Prize Offered (PM - 6/13/2006 3:53:35 PM)
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/rawfisher/2006/06/virginia_senate_race_your_pred.html

Marc Fisher is asking for predictions, and offering a prize, as yet unnamed . . .



Just now on CNN... (Laura86 - 6/13/2006 4:42:08 PM)
Wolf Blitzer mentioned that there are 5 states having primaries today, and "...the marquee race is in Virginia", mentioning Webb v. Miller to take on George Allen.  I don't think I need to remind anybody here just how important this race is.


For Virginia... (Arlington Mike - 6/13/2006 4:53:33 PM)
Depending on how this goes, this race could be a big deal for Virginia.  The state is still redish, but has turned a bit more blue-ish purple, esp. in the Gov's mansion.  Should VA Dems pick an interesting, atypical candidate like Webb, it will get a lot of national attention, which will shower down onto guys like Kaine and Warner, and could help boost the overall image of the state's Dem party and Dem grassroots base.  In turn, that brings attention, and political money, to Virginia.  Exciting stuff!


As of my last check (Mark - 6/13/2006 4:53:29 PM)
very low turnout in Cumberland. At noon, there was a total of around 1% voted. There is still the after-work crowd. No indications of who voted for whom.

I had put up 60+ signs at precincts last night, and they were the only signs at the precincts today. No sign of Miller or supporters today. I do know of some Miller voters, mostly ill-informed, but some objecting to the military style of Jim Webb, etc.

I will be doing my after-work check in a few minutes.

Damn, I wish people came out to vote in primaries. They have no idea in most cases that there even IS a primary.

Sad. But I am hopeful for statewide. I will be at the Registrar's office tonight getting the totals and reporting them here.



At My Polling Place in Reston (Luna - 6/13/2006 5:15:28 PM)
I was only the 137th person to vote. *sigh* But on the plus side, there was a WWII veteran outside the polls encouraging voters to consider Jim Webb, and no one for Miller. Not even anyone handing out flyers or anything!


I hope NLS is right.... (Laura86 - 6/13/2006 5:20:20 PM)
A Webb victory would be monumental!  Less than 2 hours to go........


Here in Prince William County (CatStaff - 6/13/2006 8:25:35 PM)
I was #73 in the Coles District.  There was no one else in the polling area except the poll workers when I got there at around 6:00 p.m.