Down the Ticket - open thread

By: Josh
Published On: 6/12/2006 9:55:31 AM

I'm thinking downticket about the effect Miller and Webb will have on the congressional races. 

There's no greater winner from a Webb victory than Al Weed, for whom having Webb at the top of the ticket will add 5-8% in the 5th at least. 

With whispers of impropriety between Goode and MZM, could that be enough to give Weed the race? 

Kellam wins with Webb.  I don't see how Miller would help in tidewater at all.

I think Webb will help make the 11th competitive for anti-establishment Andy Hurst (my pick) or foreign policy wonk Ken Longmyer (a good Dem, but Andy's better).

Anyone have any thoughts on how the top of the ticket will effect other congressional races statewide?

Comments



Nationally, Webb Helps All Dems (Josh - 6/12/2006 9:59:42 AM)
Of course, the reason National Democrats want Webb in this race, is that his presence gives strength to every anti-war Democratic challenger nationwide and will help nationalize these elections as a referrendum on the failed right-wing conservatism of George Bush, George Allen and other extremists running the Republican party.


Miller helps no one, probably hurts most (Bobby - 6/12/2006 10:17:13 AM)
The only district that Miller might help is the 8th and I'm not sure but I don't think Moran is going to have any trouble there (sarcastic).  In southern VA he has no appeal whatsoever to moderate Republicans or conservative Independents so I think he actually hurts the Congressional candidates.  Webb however would benefit all when he campaigns across the state, he appeals to the moderate Republican and the conservative Independent, which make up the majority of swing voters in VA.


My opinion (Dan - 6/12/2006 10:45:21 AM)
1st District - This race is probably out of reach, but Webb gives O'Donnell a chance to slim the margin.  Miller probably won't hurt O'Donnell much.

2nd District - Webb could make the difference between a Democratic pick-up and a Democratic loss

5th District - Webb could give Weed a chance.  Miller would probably pull this race out of contention unless Goode is indicted.

7th District - This district (while a Democratic challenger exists) is simply out of reach

9th District - Boucher should be fine regardless, although Webb would help boost his numbers.  The 3rd and 8th are fine regardless.

10th District - Webb helps Feder in a race that seems unknown at this point.  I don't know how Miller would affect the 10th.  Probably wouldn't make much of a difference.

11th District - I think Webb helps a lot b/c of the military families living here.

Overall ranking of Webb helping:
1) 2nd District
2) 5th District
3) 11th District
4) 10th District
5) 1st District
All others are negligible



Hey Dan (AlecBGreen - 6/12/2006 3:11:42 PM)
I think you miunderestimate the power of Rick Boucher in the 9th. I think HE will boost WEBB! Either way, look for a big jump in voter turnout in SW VA this year.