June 07, 2006
NRCC's Message On CA 50
From their memo to "GOP friends" (i.e. talking points):
Update: With 90.2% of the precincts reporting, Republican Brian Bilbray leads Democrat Francine Busby by 4,814 votes - 49.5% to 45.2%. The Associated Press has called the race for Brian Bilbray.
In San Diego County (of which the 50th District is a part) there are about 40,000 absentee ballots remaining to be counted today, as well as over 14,000 provisional ballots. So it will be at least this afternoon before we have final results.
Note: Brian Bilbray also won the GOP primary last night for the right to face Democrat Francine Busby on the ballot in November.
The following post-election analysis may be helpful to you as you discuss the race and its implications:
+- A Democrat +G+Culture of Corruption+G- Defeat +GGǣ There are no moral victories in politics. A loss, is a loss, is a loss. Democrats lost the election despite the heavy emphasis they placed on ethics and corruption in this race, and the fact that Francine Busby ran for this seat nonstop for almost 2-1/2 years. Busby has now failed three times in 19 months to put CA-50 in the Democrat column.
+- Democrats Failed to Capitalize on a Friendly Environment. A loss does not create a shockwave. Not only did National Democrats lose in a district where the right track/wrong track has plummeted in recent months, they also failed to take advantage of an environment as friendly to their "culture of corruption" argument as they are going to find: the GOP incumbent resigned and then went to jail while the Republican candidate to succeed him was a lobbyist.
+- This Was a Team Effort. The NRCC spent just over $4.5 million on voter contact. The Administration was very helpful +GGǣ President Bush, First Lady Laura Bush and Vice President Cheney all recorded GOTV phone calls and Vice President Cheney hosted a fundraiser. The RNC organized the Election Day GOTV operation. Senator McCain was a big help as well, hosting a fundraiser and recording both a radio ad and a GOTV phone call.
+- The NRCC's Commitment to This Race Made the Difference. The NRCC spent what it took to win. The NRCC ran an extensive voter contact program including: absentee ballot program, television, direct mail, phone calls, and radio.
+- Special Elections Are Unique. It is no surprise that this was a close race. Historically, the results of special elections do not always reflect a district's traditional profile.
THE LANDSCAPE
+- The Candidates +GGǣ Democrats effectively attacked Congressman-elect Brian Bilbray for being a lobbyist as well as for being a former Member of Congress who missed votes to travel on junkets. All this in a district where the former Member went to jail for being bribed by a lobbyist. This was a very effective attack for the Democrats.
At the same time Francine Busby was attacked for her pro-amnesty position on immigration and for her position in favor of tax increases +GGǣ both not wanting to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and her past support for increasing the gas tax.
+- The Environment +GGǣ There was significant erosion in the overall environment during the course of this campaign. Since March, the right track / wrong track numbers went from 33-59 to 23-70.
THE BOTTOM LINE
+- Local Issues Made The Difference. National issues were not a factor in this race. While Francine Busby and National Democrats concentrated their efforts on attacking Brain Bilbray as a lobbyist, it was Busby+GGs positions on immigration and taxes that were the main focal points for Bilbray and anti-Busby voters.
+- Campaigns Matter. Despite having the more effective attacks and a very favorable environment, the Democrats couldn+GGt win the race. This campaign proved that in competitive House races, despite the environment, voters will be forced to focus on the choice between the two individuals on the ballot.
The focus for the next week is of course on the primary, but this should be brought back up after that.
This will be an uphill battle no matter how many polls say otherwise.
I'll make this short and sweet. To Rham Emmanuel and Chuck Schumer: If you think the Democratic party will coast into majorities this November by just sitting back and hoping the GOP implodes, you are in for a rude awakening.The message you should derive from CA-50 is that you better do something to get the Democratic base excited and enthusiastic, or you are going to lose yet again.
And let me set a benchmark right here and right now. There is no Goddamned reason why the Democrats should not be able to take back the House of Representatives, and pick up at least 5 Senate seats in November, if you follow the correct election strategy.
None.
So, do not think we will let you off the hook if you follow the safe, easy, and chickenshit path of not creating distinctions between the Democratic party and the Republican party that will excite and motivate your base.
A dead buffalo could run the Democratic Congressional campaigns this year and pick up SOME seats!
The question is whether you squander your historic opportunity by playing it safe and acting like mealy-mouthed dumbasses, or you go for the tidal wave and sweep the GOP bastards out of power.
Hey, I've met a few "mealy-mouthed dumbasses" right here in Virginia. In fact, I've met one or two in my own home county of Arlington. Believe it or not, I actually had one of these dumbasses tell me that Democrats don't need to have an agenda of their own, because the Republicans are collapsing and we can - I guess - just lay back and enjoy it. What a joke. With "leaders" like that, we deserve to lose. Instead, I say, "throw the bums out!"
Wed, 7 Jun 2006 11:12:30 EDT
Subject: [DemocraticNewsGroup] From Christine Pelosi, Blogging in CA 50th !!!
Garry S. Shay
Member, Democratic National Committee (CA) and
Lead Chair Rules Committee, California Democratic Party
Representing 7.1 million registered Democrats
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Take Back America: Vote Democratic, top to bottom !!!
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In a message dated 6/7/2006 7:31:00 A.M. Pacific Standard Time, sfpelosi@yahoo.com writes:
Good Morning,
Here are the vote totals that will shape the fall elections:
CA-50 (96.2% reporting)
Brian Bilbray – REP 58,566 (49.48%)
Francine Busby – DEM 53,598 (45.28%)
W. Griffith – IND 4,379 (3.70%)
Paul King – LIB 1,822 (1.54%)
Francine came close but short - down by only 4 points compared to her 22 point loss in 2004â€â€even with the national Republican Party spending millions. Francine ran 15 points above Democratic registration. If Democratic challengers replicate this 15% edge in other districts nationwide, we win the House. So while Republicans are in trouble, they’re not going to quit. Democrats need to match them step by step.
Congratulations to Francine for an inspiring run - you brought forth the issues of Ethics and Energy Independence that will be a centerpiece of the fall campaigns. You made the national GOP spend 10 million dollars to defend a 15-point GOP advantage. And you sent a powerful message for change reform and hope across the country.
__._,_.___
We don't do that shit and it's about time we did. Screaming about "Corruption" doesn't do it. We need to stand for what we as Americans believe in and demonize the extremists on the right for failing to protect.
If elected Democrats continue to abdicate their responsibility to give the American people an enduring vision of our future, the party will have to rise up for the good of the nation.
Responsible Government: Democrats balance budgets and fund the vital services necessary to support ongoing peace and prosperity. Right-Wing conservatives like Bush and Allen and VA House Republicans prove every day that they are incapable of fulfilling their responsiblities.
Universal Opportunity: Democrats fight every day to ensure that every American gets a fair shot at the American dream. By gutting civil rights, by making religious dogma requisite for support, by reducing access to education, Republicans every day ensure that unless you're born on thrid base, there's no way the rest of us can ever hit a triple.
Healthy Families: Democrats fight for the rights fo families of all creeds and colors to raise their families and spend time to encourage strong emotional development. The social darwinism embodied in the anti-preganancy rights, anti-marriage equality, anti-work flexibility, anti-environmental safety, weaker secruity right-wing extremist agenda makes it harder and harder for anyone except for the super rich to spend time nurturing a healthy family.
Fair Markets: Democrats every day fight for the rights of small businesses, small farm owners and entrepreneurs to get their shot at success in the marketplace. Corporatist right-wing extremists foster an environment of corporate socialism that enables the likes of Walmart to destroy family stores, the likes of ADM to destroy family farms, and the likes of massive corporate conglomerates to cut off opportunities that should be afforded to entrepreneurs everywhere.
it goes on and on, but until the Opportunity Agenda finds a home at the heart of the Democratic party, right-wing extremists will continue to use the three faces of fear: greed, ignorance, and hatred, to keep the Republican party in power.