#1: Yesterday, Jim Webb was endorsed by Chuck Dolan, President Clinton+óGé¼Gäós Virginia Campaign Chair. The more I think about this and talk about it with various people "in the know," it's extremely obvious: this was NOT a rogue operation by Chuck Dolan. This guy is VERY close to the Clintons, and obviously would never have endorsed Webb without checking first with President Clinton. In other words, to be blunt about this, Chuck Dolan's endorsement of Jim Webb was de facto an endorsement by the Clintons themselves. So much for all the b.s. that Harris Miller's been putting out about how Webb hated Bill Clinton so much. Apparently, President Clinton is very happy with Webb, and wants him to be Virginia's next US Senator. Case #1 closed.
#2: Although I have heard rumors about this one for months, Ben Tribbett over at Not Larry Sabato just did the honors and broke the huge story. That's right, John Kerry is endorsing Jim Webb for Senate. Is this race over now or what? More importantly, does this lay to rest, once and for all, all the brouhaha over Webb and Kerry supposedly hating each others' guts because of Vietnam? Well, it looks like the two of them have buried the hatchet, kissed and made up, etc. Case #2 closed.
Any other cases need closing? Oh yeah, there's Chuck Robb, who supposedly also had a problem with Webb. Recently, 11 former Robb staffers endorsed Webb, while Robb and Webb themselves had a pleasant, friendly dinner together with their wives. In other words, it looks like everyone has forgiven each other except for Harris Miller, whose sole strategy continues to be, "All Negative, All the Time." Just like Jerry Kilgore last year with his "Hitler Ads" against Tim Kaine. Blech.
[UPDATE: Kerry says:
Jim Webb has courage and I am proud to endorse his courage and his character in his campaign for U.S. Senate. We need more people of courage in the Senate and that means we need leaders like Jim who have served honorably in the military and in the government serving the country they love. We need to beat George Allen,+óGé¼-¥ continued Kerry. Jim has my support for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Virginia. He has the best chance to beat George Allen.
OK, I take back everything i said about punching Ben in the face...
I think this will be the end of Miller's viable candidacy. I expect he'll stay in the race and suck on sour grapes for a while. He really has been ugly since the moment Webb entered the race. I used to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I am long past that....He has brought only disgrace upon himself in the eyes of many political activists. And he has done nothing but provide a diservice to the Democratic Party of Virginia by doing his best to cleave it in two. He has dragged his own name through the mud. He is now so badly soiled in the eyes of many that no soap nor self reinvention will ever get out the taint. Miller will not be forgotten.
He lost in 1984. He'll lose this year....and should he run for anything again...my guess is that nothing will change.
He may have made a few friends along the way: other lobbyists who would scratch his back when the time came. But he made a lot of enemies: he was reviled on a National stage. The politics and wheeling and dealing and the thrill of the campaign has finally undone Mr. Miller.
Too bad, he seems like a smart enough guy, probably hard working. He could have done some great things. Too bad he made the wrong choices for the last 25 years.
It's too bad. He might have been such a good Congressman, if only he'd stayed out of that oh so lucrative but damning business.
pj - did you ever encounter that annoying person on DK, MH in PA? He was as bad as tiponeill. And it was allll about Kerry.
Maybe next time, his name will be Kevin Schmidt of Herndon VA. Of course, then he won't have a candidate to sell to someone.
;)
So my first thought was, "Wow! What will MH in PA think of this?!?!?" :-)
BTW, I'm almost 100% certain that Kevin Schmidt is from Sterling, VA. He was a BFA regular and always used to post that in caps. Unless he just happend to move to another town of the same name in Pennsylvania, I'm confident he's a Virginian.
What's BFA stand for?
Both kind of useless. They never really offer anything of substance, and they ardently hate Webb supporters.
But, This Ben guy is a load of fun.
I vote more fun in politics, more Ben.
It's hard to appreciate that when your reaching for the nitroglycerin tablets.
"Xenophobic" seems to be the new buzz description for someone who doesn't agree with every nuance of your trade policy.
"moderate end of the Democratic Party's spectrum" ?
Smashing Unions is the moderate spectrum of the Democratic Party? Harry Truman was a moderate: he didn't bust unions.
that's the only thing I can think of that would explain this.
If I read this and nothing else, I would come to the conclusion that "Webb is my guy, and I still don't know much about the other guy."
but still bad news.
I mean Miller:
a. has no background in economics
b. has no policy to "deal with the global economy" beyond outsourcing jobs and insourcing cheap labor
c. The absurd idea that high speed Internet access with combat a 20:1 wage ratio of cheaper labor overseas is laughable, never mind manufacturing cannot be done as a 'work at home' job
d. Multinational corporations and what they want is counter to the real free trade theory and one of the reasons we have the massive deficit.
Miller is a poster boy for corporate abuses of their employees.
Even the most dedicated Democrats who are against Corporation Corruption and the decimation of labor will work actively against him.
This is not good.
By the way, it is worth recalling that the Post strongly supported the invasion of Iraq. And, as with many other "mainstream media" outlets, the Post overall did a shoddy, lazy, irresponsible job of looking critically at the facts leading up to the war. No wonder the Post supported it when it didn't question the Administration's assertions regarding (nonexistent) WMD, (nonexistent) ties between Saddam and Al Qaeda, etc. Perhaps that's Harris Miller's excuse as well. Just like the Post, Miller is now trying to take back his strong support for invading Iraq and to make amends. Unfortunately for the thousands of American soldiers who have been killed or wounded over there, and the hundreds of billions of dollars we've wasted, it's too late.
Regardless, the Post does have nice things to say about Jim Webb. Ironically, the Post notes that Webb "was an early and prescient critic of the war in Iraq and its likely consequences." The Post also notes what we all know, that Webb "is an undoubtedly compelling figure" - "a scrappy former Marine and much-decorated Vietnam veteran with impressive literary credentials and an Emmy Award to his name." On ecnomics, the Post points out that Webb is "right to focus concern on the widening disparities of Americans' income and wealth," but then doesn't like Webb's "ideas about the problem's causes and possible antitodes." Of course, the Post doesn't spell out what its "ideas" are, nor does it spell out Miller's.
On Miller, the Post describes him as "a longtime Democratic party apparatchik" with "deficits in dash and elan" who is running in "an inopportune year for a candidate to have the word "lobbyist" appended to one's name." They also all but admit that Miller has no shot at defeating George Allen. Wow, that's extremely compelling.
All in all, the Post editorial today is a strange, incohrent, intellectually garbled mess. Who knows what on earth it means, except that the Post loves globalization, free trade, and pro-corporate Washington insiders. And to think this used to be a great newspaper with crusading journalists like Woodward and Bernstein in their heyday. Sad.
Milton Friedman on H-1B
We shouldn't get too upset or mad about this and try spin too much crackpot theory into countering the Post.
Miller wants to stigmatize Webb supporters as yokels ,know-nothings and misguided idealists. We gotta be careful not to play his game. Webb is very much pursing a "bottom up" campaign. One of the downsides is that those that like a "top to bottom" system better are, of course, going to see a popular Jim Webb as a too independent for their likings.
The Post may see us a just a bunch of bumpkins and bomb throwing bloggers; we need to prove them wrong. Style ain't just section 3 of the Post; it's also the way we're going to win on June 13th. Keep your cool. Those from below can sometimes make miracles and do good things. That's what it's all about: doing good and doing it well.
June 13th, babies!!! Let's win with Jim !!!
Jim Webb scares the c*** out of the neocons and Fred Hiatt et al at the Post, because if he were a Senator, he'd be a voice of common sense on foriegn policy -- and ask the sort of tough questions they fear about sending Americans off to die in poorly thought out ideological crusades like trying to 'transform the Middle East' by occupying Iraq.
their editorial page has turned further right since Meg Greenfield ceased running it.
Will it have some influence in N Virginia? Undoubtedly. And be prepared for an ad barrage by Miller brandishing the endorsement and folcusing on the part that Webb has failed to offer detailed positions. And in that context I think the handout we discussed last night will possibly play a part as well.
That said, the real issue in the primary is ground game -- according to state board of elections total eligible voters for this primary is 4,516,250
therefore each percent of voters is 45,162.
at 2% turnout is 90,324 and it takes 45,163 to win
at 3% turnout is 135,486 and it takes 67,743 to win
at 4% turnout is 180,648 and it takes 90,325 to win.
Assume for sake of argument that we are talking 3% turnout. Jim's personal appeal turns out 5,000 voters in SW that would not otherwise vote, and 5,000 in Hampton Roads that would otherwise not vote. These are included in the 3% total. He now needs only 57,743 of the remaining 125,486, or only 46% of the remaining votes.
In otherwords, if Jim maximizes new turnout from those who would not otherwise participate, an endorsement like this might well not matter.
That's why phonebanking, door to door, metro stop greeting, using your personal email lists, can make such a difference.
Oh, and btw, I think Jim will pull out far more than 10,000 "new" votes. I think there is a real possibility that he can pull out 2 to 3 times that number, and I do not see that Miller is necessarily going to draw very many non-regulars to the primary. But today is June 2 and the Primary is not until June 13.
One good thing -- Not as many people will read an endorsement on a Friday as would on a Sunday.
It states that Miller is 'more thoughful' (uhm NOT!!!).
It states 'Mr. Miller is a forceful, smart, unapologetic proponent of his views.' (that is, of his views today, regardless of what his views were yesterday).
'He is an astute critic of America's sluggish response to the challenges posed by an interwoven global economy and a tough-minded backer of budgetary restraint and fiscal sanity' (but making the Bush tax cuts permanent is a "great idea").
Formalizing and publishing preference by an organization closely affiliated with the debate host is inappropriate and it is incumbent upon the Post not only to disqualify themselves but to make arrangements for another party to perform those duties properly.
Perhaps the real Larry Sabato can host a real debate. Any other ideas?
I WILL HAVE A WONDERFUL DAY.
COME ON JUNE 13TH ---- LET'S DO IT.