Last November, Democratic volunteers and Democratic voters across the Commonwealth of Virginia successfully defended ourselves from the hard right and brought an excellent successor to Mark Warner into the Governor's Mansion in Richmond (Tim Kaine). Currently, only 22 Democrats grace the Governor's Mansions across the United States. That could all change dramatically in November. While the Democrats are fighting a hard battle to take back the House, and an even tighter battle to take back the Senate, the prospect of taking back the majority of the Governor's seats is not only possible, it is quite probable.Democratic Governors have a tremendous impact. They reject Bush's draconian policies. They break ground on innovative programs. They push for advanced technology. They create success stories when our federal government fails us.
The main reason Democrats may fare so well in Governor's races this year may not be the fact that Bush's poll numbers are low. The main reason might be more likely due to the sheer number of races where incumbent Republicans are facing re-election and the number of open seats once held by Republicans.
Sure, Democrats face some challenges. There is one Democratic open seat in Iowa in jeopardy and 13 Democratic incumbents facing re-election. However, there are 8 Republican open seats this November, and 14 Republican incumbents facing re-election. Altogether there is a grand total of 36 Governor's races this November, and each one will have an impact on how our country moves forward. Let's go over the list and see just how many Democrats might be telling the Bush Administration to stick it once they get a hold of the Governor's Mansion in 2007 if we can get them there.
Democrats
Ironically (and happily), most of the "Red State" incumbent Democrats have the safest road to victory this fall. For instance, Democratic incumbents in Arizona, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming should have no trouble defending their seats. Neither should the Democratic incumbent in the swing state of New Hampshire. Instead, it is the "Blue State" Governors that face the hardest contests.
One of the trickiest of races this fall is the open seat contest in Iowa, where popular Democrat Tom Vilsack is leaving after 8 years in office with a 61% approval rating. His replacement? Secretary of State Chet Culver will be taking on Republican Congressmen Jim Nussle. He already has the lead.
The only Democratic incumbent consistently losing in the polls is Rod Blagojevich in Illinois. The first term Governor has an approval rating hovering in the mid-forties and is having some trouble keeping up his image. Hopefully he can keep his head above water enough to keep his job in November.
Another close race is in Pennsylvania, where incumbent Ed Rendell has seesawed in the polls against former football star Lynn Swann. This race remains up in the air for now, but Rendell may get a break if a conservative-independent enters the race to take votes away from Swann.
Races in Maine, Michigan, Oregon, and Wisconsin remain tight for now, but all three hold onto leads.
Republicans
While there are no races where a Democrat currently holds office that the Democrat has no chance to win, Republicans aren't so lucky. It would take a miracle (or more appropriately a curse) for Republicans to win the open seats in New York and Massachusetts. The most promising of the 6 other open seats currently held by the GOP are Arkansas and Ohio, where Democratic candidates hold big leads. The race in Colorado is neck and neck between several challengers, and Republican challengers in Florida and Nevada hold single digit leads. In Idaho, Governor Dick Kempthorne's appointment as Interior Secretary probably does little to jeopardize the Republican stronghold over the state where Bush won by 38 points in 2004.
The most vulnerable Republican incumbent thus far resides across the Potomac in Maryland. Robert Ehrlich is losing to both Democratic challengers thus far, and faces a tough bid for re-election no matter who wins the primary. After Ehrlich, the races get tougher, but there are certainly good possibilities. Incumbents face especially hard races in Minnesota and Rhode Island. California is still anybody's guess, being that polls show Arnold is leading Phil Angeledis, but you never know what can happen between now and election day. Outside of California, low poll numbers by Republicans in general could hurt the re-election bids of incumbents in Alabama, Alaska, and Georgia.
The 7 remaining races seem a bit out of reach. While a turnaround could happen in Texas or Vermont, as of right now, the chances for victory are quite dim for Democratic challengers in Connecticut, Hawaii, Nebraska, South Carolina, and South Dakota.
What could the numbers be?
First of all, if by some miracle, every Democratic seat is defended, and every Republican seat was to fall, the Democrats would control 44 states. Of course, this won't happen, but it is nice to see that number, right?
A more realistic figure would be that Democrats will probably lose no more than 2 races, and may realistically lose none. The races to keep our eyes on are in Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where high voter turnout in the urban areas will be essential to keeping these states blue.
Conversely, Republicans may reasonably lose up to 6 or 7 open seats and incumbents in 3-4 states may fall. The way the polls have it now, Democrats have an excellent shot to have 30 Governor's next year. Unless there is a dramatic change in the polls, Democrats are virtually assured the majority of Governor's next year. It would take a net-gain of only 4.
As we saw during the Kaine campaign, what it takes to win is major GOTV efforts. High turnout is essential. This year Republicans have barely a leg to stand on. Their base is alienated, and most people believe the country is going the wrong way. Democrats hold the Ace of Spades. Democrats hold the momentum. When people come out to vote, especially in the cities, they will vote for a Democratic Governor, they will vote for a Democratic Senator, and they will vote for a Democratic Congressman.
If that isn't enough to motivate you, imagine this: If we get California, Florida, Massachusetts, Ohio, and New York back to the Democrats (which is certainly possible), 75% of the U.S. population would be represented by Democratic Governors. Keep this in mind as you volunteer this year.
SOURCES
Daily Kos
Democratic Governor's Association
National Journal
Race Ratings
Rasmussen Reports
I think that Blagojevich may be safer than he looks, as he has a frankly amazing fundraising advantage, and something close to $10m of cash if I remember. Polls show this race back and forth, and that seems to show that people have not decided, but maybe a few Obama ads would do some good!
Another race that nobody appears to mention is the RI Governorship- poll a week or so ago showed the Democrat in a dead heat (1% ahead), and that was before campaign proper has even begun. Could be one to watch, particularly if Laffey wins the primary against Chafee (which seems unlikely).