I'm hoping Webb puts up a TV ad in time for the primary. Or maybe runs a radio ad.

We also have to do our part like writing letters to your local editor.

So what was that about webb with 41 % in the march Zogby poll????  It makes you wonder about the accuracy of any of these polls.  There is so much variation.

Zogby is just not credible. I'd rather go with SUSA.

My guess is Webb is probably in the 35-40% range against Allen at this point. Not bad given his low ID.

Assuming that those favorable ratings translate into "highly motivated primary voters" it means that Webb enjoys a 60 to 40 advantage in the primary (18% of respondents have a favorable view of a Democratic candidate.  11 divided by 18 is about 61%).  We still have our work cut out for ourselves.

Just saw a copy of a slick mailer that the Harris Weasel campaign is sending out tomorrow. Even for Miller it's a new low!  The mailer has a weak-chinned Miller smiling like the goober he is with photos of everyone from Carter to Gore and Chuck Robb next to check boxes that show who Miller has supported in the past.  Above the photos there is a statement talking about what a champion he's been for the Democratic party for the last 30 years. (Harris Miller has never done anything but promote himself-everyone else was just a convenient stepping-stone).

On the other side they have Webb at the top and photos of Reagan, George W Bush, George Allen, etc. talking about how Webb served under, helped to elect these people, voted for them, blah, blah, blah.

What the mailer doesn't say is who donated $5,500 to Republicans since 2000. 

The answer is not Webb.  Readers of Raising Kaine know that much.

On the back of the mailer Miller laughably talks about restoring honor and integrity back to Congress and ending the Culture of Corruption in Washington.

Could it be that Harris Miller is so cut off from reality in his multi-million dollar mansion that he does not get the irony of this statement?

Harris Miller is the corruption in Washington! At least for Democrats. This man's career is a one-man parable for everything that is wrong with the party hacks that have been selling true Democratic values down the river.  The time for this to end is now.

Webb's campaign needs more volunteers! Get your game face on.

in my neighborhood.  That's where this latest Miller mailer, which I received last night, found a home.  I expect that even activists will hate this mailer.

I've talked to people who think it could be effective with Democrats.

Sure, it's a negative ad, but it's not an over the top hitler ad like Kilgore used.  If Miller takes the negative too far there will be a backlash, but just going negative, despite polls to the contrary, can and does work.

I suspect that showing Webb's Republican background will hurt him in a primary for Democrats.  Most long time Dems will have an automatic distrust of a "former republican".  To win them over you must be able to present the positives of Webb and the problems with Miller. 

People who are Webb supporters know the arguments and it's a no brainer.  But everyone else must be led to this conclusion. 

This begs the question - where the hell are the Webb fliers?  Are they saving their money for a rainy day?  Robocalls are coming out (personally I hate 'em, but at least it's something).  But where's the rest?  If Miller outspends Webb then Miller could very easily win this thing despite being the weaker candidate.

and Vienna handing out hundreds of Webb fliers, right?

I retrack my bitching if the campaign has those fliers available for distribution.

I talked to some activists last night who said that Miller is "destroying the party" and they would not support him if he wins the primary.  That's how fed up they are with Miller. And so am I.

Because 7 - 21% for Miller and 11 to 19% for Webb with 4.6% margin of error means nothing.  The only thing it says about the two is that they have a lot of work to do.  Don't draw anything much from it.

This poll has nothing to do with the primary with you will notice that only 2% of voters come out for a primary.  Try again

If the primary was held today I would stand by my interpolation.

Here goes . . .

Assumptions:
--Presumably Allen favorables won't turn out en-masse for the Democratic primary. (contrary to the rumors) 
--The negative numbers aren't relevant (e.g. voters who take the time to vote in a primary usually vote for a candidate, not against one)
--The unknowns and no opinions are also irrelevant for this hypothetical primary (no doubt though, these are the people who both Webb and Miller will be focusing their attention on over the next few weeks).

Which means . . .
The most relevant numbers for a Democratic primary are people who have a favorable opinion about one of the Democratic candidates. 

Presumably the favorables for both Miller and Webb are equally motivated, so they will vote, or not vote, in the same numbers (which speaks to your point about the 2%).  The margin of error would still be approximately 5%, which would mean a 65-35 upper range for Webb with Webb winning by 30%, or 55-45 upper range for Miller, with Webb still winning by 10%. 

Which means, in all likelihood, the numbers would fall somewhere in the 60-40 range in favor of Webb if the primary was held today. 

All this means is that Webb volunteers have to roll up their sleeves and WORK HARDER and WORK SMARTER!

It is meaningful, it is encouraging, but it is only the beginning of the beginning: so get to work!  Get to those phone banks!

On May 15, SUSA (the same group) came out with their poll showing Allen with a 53% approval/37% disapproval (16 point spread).  Now, May 24, they come out with a poll showing Allen with a 47% favorable and 26% unfavorable (21 point spread).

Part of the problem is obviously that asking people whether they approve is different from asking if they have a favorable opinion.  That said, Allen only being at 47% favorable is encouraging but, on the flip side, Allen only being at 26% unfavorable is very discouraging.  However, I think you're right that the most important thing in this poll is the confirmation that Webb and Miller are both still complete unknowns to Virginians.

that there are no unsavory skeletons in Miller's past that might turn off voters... He's the REAL Democrat who will TAKE IT TO Allen and Bush everyday.

Please...

Hmm... By "IT" does Miller mean campaign contributions? Will Miller take "campaign contributions" to Allen and Bush? I mean, Miller contributes money to Republicans right? He's so ambiguous about what "it" is, I can only infer that he means money...

Just because he's not aligned with you?
Why is it Miller supporters who are nasty like this.  You do "your man" no favors.  It makes me despise Miller all the more.
Good job getting people more loyal to Webb!!

and I have seen first hand the havoc that Miller's policies (outsourcing and H1B visas) have wreaked on the real lives of friends of mine, having to sell their house and move to a less expensive area (one in mid school year which really bothered his kids) or being forced to accept a pay cut and longer work hours because of outsourcing.

If Miller is the candidate I will still be committed to defeating Allen, but instead of waking up every morning thinking HOW to help I will instead be thinking WHY.

You know, Wayne Morse and Don Reigle started their careers as Republicans.  Does that mean they were not good Democrats?

Miller, the grassroots candidate?  Wow.  Just wow.  Yeah, an anti-union lobbyist is the grassroots choice.  Forgive me while I laugh hysterically.

But I want Webb to be that winner.  Why don't you?  And give a reason besides "Miller's called himself a Democrat longer."

If you want us to take you seriously, say something positive about Miller.  Convince me he's good.  Don;t just tell me why you don;t like the other guy.

So yes, if I must, I'll vote for Miller.  But I hope I won't have to.

But you're responding to it Thomas, so:
No, I will not actively support Miller if he wins the primary.  The vicious attacks from the Miller camp, and nearly every single supporter I've come into contact with in person or on the net has turned me permanently away.

I am a great, wonderful Democrat, and I have danced and marched for Democracy in Washington, have personally "recruited" some people "to our side" which actually isn't too hard the last couple of years.  I'll spend my time actively supporting other Virginia Dems.  I have ALWAYS voted my conscience, and there is no way I can in good conscience vote for Harris Miller.  Not a chance.

based on the ratings he rec'd.  Any reply attached to the post gets lost as well, but I think it may be in "your comments."

Hiding your elitist pro-outsourcing views behind the name of a true democrat like Thomas Paine really is a masterful stroke of propaganda.

Of course, guys like Miller are exactly the sort whom Paine viewed as enemies of our Republic...

Phony democrats like Miller serve only the interests of wealthy elites whose wealth and power increases at the expense of the majority...

Your posts all seem to begin a new thread so readers have to search for your reference or just conclude that your rant is some sort of psychotic Miller tourettes outburst.

By the way, I have read all of Thomas Paine's collected writings, I have a bound copy of all of his works (Common Sense, The Crisis, Rights of Man, the Age of Reason, Pamphlets, Articles, & Letters), Thomas Paine is a hero of mine. You, sir, are no Thomas Paine. (R.I.P. Lloyd Bentsen).

"Thomas Paine" is bringing nothing but elitist sarcasm and insults to this website; it is boring, and I am just going to joke around, ignore him, and call him what he is-a troll. 

By the way-I have a pretty good idea who this person is from other websites.  If I am correct, he is younger than me, and doesn't even live in VA, so I guess this is play time.

I wondered when Miller would reach into his pocketbook and start buying bloggers too. And I expected that the children of his ITAA associates might also be recruited... Pathetic.

Since I have been an anti-outsourcing activist for about three years continuously in opposition to the worker replacement programs championed by your leader, Harris Miller, you can certainly imagine the likelihood that I would ever do anything to help advance the personal or political fortunes of Harris Miller.

Frankly, it is a black eye for the Democratic Party to even have Miller in this race. Miller represents everything opposed to real democratic principles. Miller's presence in this race confirms the views of those who dismiss the Democrats as little different from Republicans.

Your propaganda doesn't do anything to blur the reality that Miller serves the interests of the rich and powerful at the expense of middle and working class Americans. You certainly are a Propagandist and if you imagine the Miller will win against Webb or Allen, you're definitely a dreamer... You're not any sort of patriot.

Imagining just for a moment that Miller overtakes Webb to become the Democratic Party candidate, how will Miller claim to be different from Allen? On all labor and economic policy issues, Miller is indistinguishable from Allen. Miller and Allen are virtual clones on offshore outsourcing and worker replacement issues.