The following rankings are based on an average of three different formulas I developed, combined with rankings by other analysts and a bit of subjective judgment. All three formulas take into account, using different weighting schemes, the latest polling numbers, the incumbent's (or incumbent party's if the seat is being vacated) margin of victory last time around, and President Bush's current net approval rating in the state. Based on this analysis, here are my rankings of the most vulnerable Senate seats this year (the lower the negative number, the greater the chance of the incumbent losing; the higher the positive number, the greater the chance of the incumbent winning).
1. Rick Santorum (R-PA) -67
Bush's net disapproval in Pennsylvania is 42 points, spelling big trouble for Santorum. In addition, Santorum trails his likely opponent, State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., by around 9 points (average of three recent polls). Santorum won in 2000 by an unimpressive 6 points. Since then, it's been nothing but trouble for Santorum, who is cursed with an "uncontrollable desire to speak his mind" according to the Chicago Tribune, a visit to the Terri Schiavo's hospice, questionable ethics, etc. Finally, the National Journal rates this one as the #1 chance for a party switch. National Journal readers agree. In sum, Pennsylvania looks like an almost certain Democratic pickup.
2. Jim Talent (R-MO) -43
Talent barely (50%-49%) squeaked by Jean Carnahan in a 2002 special election. The latest Rasmussen poll has Talent up just 3 points over State Auditor Claire McCaskill, with the "three-poll moving average" actually showing McCaskill ahead by 1 point. President Bush's net disapproval rating in Missouri is 39 points, which likely will be a continuing drag on Talent. National Journal rates this race #2, while National Journal readers rank it #4. This one looks like a strong Democratic pickup possibility.
3. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) -37
Chafee's trying to hold on in one of the most Democratic states in the country. In addition, Bush's net disapproval is 52 points (!!) in Rhode Island. Finally, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Chafee pulling just 44% of the vote, terrible for an incumbent. Before Chafee gets to November, he must defeat conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey in a Republican primary September 12. If Laffey beats Chafee, it's almost a sure Democratic pickup. If Chafee hangs on in the primary, it's going to be a tough general election in November. National Journal ranks this race #4 as a turnover possibility, with readers placing it at #3. Strong Democratic pickup possibility here.
4. Mike DeWine (R-OH) -26
DeWine is trailing Sherrod Brown in the latest Rasmussen poll by 3 points, 44%-41%. Those numbers are very troubling for an incumbent. In addition, President Bush is very unpopular in Ohio, with a net disapproval rating of 33 points. In addition, the Ohio Republican Party is in disarray, with scandal and an extremely unpopular Governor. Personally, I would have preferred Paul Hackett as the candidate in Ohio, but this still looks like a good Democratic pickup possibility.
5. Conrad Burns (R-MT) -11
The latest Rasmussen poll, just released today, shows Conrad Burns trailing not one but TWO Democrats, Jon Tester and John Morrison, by 4 points each. In large part, Burns is being dragged down by his relationship with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Burns defeated Brian Schweitzer in 2000 by just 4 points (Schweitzer is now the popular Governor). Helping Burns somewhat is the fact that President Bush is relatively popular in Montana, with a net disapproval rating of "only" 6 points. Still, Burns' ethical problems make this the #3 ranked race in the National Journal, and #2 among National Journal readers. This one's a possible Democratic pickup in November.
6. George Allen (R-VA) +28
Here in Virginia, President Bush has a net disapproval rating of 19 points. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Allen's at exactly 50% against Jim Webb, the likely Democratic nominee, not exactly an overwhelming number for an incumbent. It is also worth pointing out that Allen won his last race by only 4 points over a weakened - and badly outspent - Chuck Robb. Finally, Jim Webb matches up extremely well against Allen, with an ability to compete in all parts of the state and a strong military background (yet strongly against the Iraq war since 2002). This one looks like a potential Democratic pickup, but only if: a) Webb is able to raise sufficient money to get his message out; b) the Webb campaign is top-notch in every way; and c) Bush remains unpopular in Virginia through November. If all that happens, watch as this race moves up quickly from #14 in the National Journal rankings.
That's six decent shots for Democrats to pick up seats in the Senate this November. If they win them all - which will be very difficult, no doubt - that would put them at 50 seats, plus 1 independent (Jim Jeffords of Vermont), with Republicans at 49 seats. One other frequently mentioned Democratic pickup possibility is the seat being vacated in Tennessee by Bill Frist. My ratings, however, have it at +41 for the Republicans.
On the other side, there are potentially vulnerable Democratic seats in Minnesota (open seat; #5 rank in the National Journal), Washington (#7 rank in the National Journal), Maryland (#8 in the National Journal) and possibly even Nebraska (#10 in the National Journal). However, my calculations show all those seats to be safe for the Democrats. I also don't see any problems for Jon Kyl (R) in Arizona right now, although that race is ranked #12 by the National Journal.
The bottom line right now is that Democrats have a good shot at picking up 5 Senate seats (Pennsylvania, Missouri, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Montana) this November. In addition, they have a decent chance at winning Virginia with Jim Webb. If the situation shapes up the way it's looking now, in fact, it's very possible that the Virginia Senate race could be the key for Democrats to take back the Senate. In other words, come autumn, all eyes could very well be the Virginia showdown between George Allen and Jim Webb. Stay tuned...
[UPDATE 5/17: Bob Casey won his primary in Pennsylvania yesterday, with 85% of the vote. Very impressive.]
So yeah, TN might end up being closer than we think.
But he's an african american in Tennessee. I hate to say it, but those people like to eat squirrels...
People I have talked to in Minnesota say the likely nominee does not really excite Democrats and that Kennedy is a very good candidate. Given that the state has become more Republican recently don't be surprised if the GOP picks this one up too.
If Chaffee wins the primary he will get re-elected and in all honesty the Democrats would be fools to waste money going after him. He is a very liberal Republican. That money would be better spent in Montana, Pennsylvania, or Ohio.
Like many female candidates McCaskill may over poll, so don't be surprised if she loses a close one.
Although I do agree with you about Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana.
On Chafee, I'd say if he is the Republican nominee, it's going to be a really tight race. Winnable, though, in one of the most Democratic states in the country.
Minnesota's possible for the Republicans, but again, Bush is very unpopular there (-32). That will be tough to overcome...