Republican Civil War?

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/25/2005 1:00:00 AM

Dan Balz writes in today's Washington Post of "Deeper Fissures and a Looming Power Struggle" for the Republicans.  Here are Balz' opening two paragraphs:

The fallout from the Senate compromise that averted a showdown over judicial filibusters fell most heavily on the Republican Party yesterday, signaling intraparty warfare that is likely to shape the battle for the party's 2008 presidential nomination and further strain the unity the GOP has enjoyed under President Bush.

Monday's surprise deal left two of the party's most prominent potential 2008 candidates, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.) and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), on opposite sides of an ideological and strategic divide that is likely to widen as the party begins in earnest to hunt for a successor to Bush. Perhaps mindful of the power of social and religious conservatives, other GOP senators with presidential aspirations, including George Allen (Va.) and Chuck Hagel (Neb.), condemned the deal.

Gary Bauer, a top leader in the social and religious conservative wing of the party (aka, the Christian Taliban), says bluntly that "The heart of the Republican Party is as unhappy as I can recall."  And, as I've been saying for days now, Virginia Senator George Allen has aligned himself firmly with the Christian Taliban in his early maneuvering for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination.

As I wrote the other day:

Since the 1970s, unfortunately, the Grand Old Party has fallen from a reasonable, moderate, budget balancing, international treaty supporting, compromise making, tradition (and US constitution) respecting group to a bunch of anti-tax absolutists and religious extremists (the so-called ?Christian Taliban?). These people are, to be blunt about it, fanatics, a word defined by the FreeDictionary.com as ?a person motivated by irrational enthusiasm (as for a cause). Yep, that describes today?s Republican Party very well, sad to say.

Today, the old ?Establishment Republicans,? people who actually cared about civility, institutions, and order, are now ridiculed and marginalized as ?RINOs? (?Republicans in Name Only?) ? and other such terms of opprobrium ? by the radical right. However, these ad hominem attacks do not alter the fact that the current breed of Republicans are actually the RINOs. Just look at their record. These people are for bigger government, more meddling in our personal lives, and a complete lack of respect for the institutions that have made this country great for 200 years - the constitution, checks and balances, rule of law, a strong and independent judiciary, separation of church and state, and respect for minority rights.

Could this escalate into a full-blown Republican Civil War?  Could the unwieldy Repubilcan coalition of pro-business people, (misguided) libertarians, religious fundamentalists and social conservatives, neo-conservatives,  "traditional" conservatives, national security hawks, and tax haters fall apart?  Could the Republican Party splinter into two or more parties?  For one, I will not predict such an outcome, given the underlying strength of the Republican coalition and the fact that it has held together for 25 years, despite numerous predictions of its imminent demise 

Still, the potential for serious fighting exists as 2006 and 2008 approach.  We see signs of it right here and right now in Virginia, with groups like the Virginia Conservative Action PAC backing right-wing challengers to some of the 17 Republicans who voted for Governor Mark Warner's 2004 budget package.  At the present time, this is merely the rumbling of cannonfire in the distant background. But, with the 2008 Presidentiall contest looming, the fighting moves closer every day.

If this situation does escalate into a Republican Civil War,  it is highly likely that we  will find Republicans like John Warner and Russ Potts on one side, with George Allen and his lackey Jerry Kilgore on the other.  Warner and Potts will stand with those who respect the constitution, checks and balances, separation of church and state, and compromise.  In contrast, George Allen and Jerry Kilgore will be found on the other side -- the "no compromise," "take no prisoners," "from my cold dead hands" wing of the party.

This Republican Civil War may never happen.  But if it does, it promises to be a bloody one.

P.S. For more on John Warner vs. George Allen, see today's Washington Post article, "Warner, Allen Perspectives Lead to Opposing Stances"

P.P.S. For more on the war between Republican moderates and ultra-conservatives, see the article, also in today's Washington Post, "House Defies Bush on Stem Cells: 50 Republicans Help Pass Bill to Repeal Restrictions on Federal Funding."  Not a happy day for the Christian Taliban wing of the Republican Party.


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