Which Democrat Does Senator Webb Help the Most?

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/4/2006 8:08:27 AM

Josh's diary on big endorsement(s) upcoming for Jim Webb got me to thinking:  which Democratic 2008 Presidential contender would be helped the most by the election of Jim Webb (D-VA) to the U.S. Senate?  A few thoughts:

1) General Wesley Clark was the first of the 2008 Democratic Presidential contenders to endorse Jim Webb.  On March 28, Clark strongly threw his support behind Webb, praising Webb as someone who would "take his fight to the floor of the U.S. Senate...won't back down from any challenge and... will focus on the job he is elected to do."  Seems to me like this endorsement puts Wesley Clark at the top of the list of 2008 Democratic contenders who will benefit from a Senator Webb.

2) However...close behind COULD be former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, IF Warner strongly - and quickly - throws his support behind Jim Webb.  If Mark Warner becomes the second 2008 contender to endorse Webb, after Wesley Clark, it would be a huge deal because most people understand that Warner was constrained by his earlier support for Harris Miller, when Jim Webb wasn't in the race yet. 

Now, imagine the combination of Jim Webb and Mark Warner barnstorming Virginia in 2008?  You think that the Commonwealth would turn "blue" in the 2008 Presidential election or what, if Mark Warner were the nominee and, let's say, Wesley Clark were the running mate with Sen. Webb taking his Locust Mountain Boys on the road with him?  Sounds like a plan to me!
3) John Edwards (D-NC) would gain a great deal, it seems to me, by linking himself with Jim Webb.  Like Webb, Edwards is a Southerner with a strong populist streak ("two Americas").  He also hails from a neighboring state.  Obviously, Mark Warner is a major rival of Edwards in 2008, as is Wes Clark.  Recall that in 2004, Clark and Edwards battled for second place, with Edwards coming out ahead of Clark in Virginia.  Now, imagine if someone like Jim Webb were helping him here.  Given that Virginia is Mark Warner's home turf, John Edwards could use any help he could get here.  Certainly, a friendly Senator Jim Webb couldn't hurt matters for Edwards.

4) John Kerry, who easily won the Virginia primary in 2004, is an interesting case.  Although many Democrats appear ready to move onto a different candidate for 2008, Kerry looks like he isn't slowing down.  As many people know, Jim Webb and John Kerry have a bit of a history, with Webb saying recently, "I wouldn't shake John Kerry's hand for 20 years [because of Kerry's anti-Vietnam activities, but] "I voted for him" in 2004.  Would a John Kerry endorsement of Jim Webb help Kerry by linking him to an unquestioned war hero of the first order?  Or, would it remind people of the disgraceful "Swift Boat" attacks on John Kerry in 2004?  Seems to me that a Sen. Webb-Sen. Kerry alliance could help both men, but time will tell...

5) How about the 800-pound gorilla in the room, Hillary Clinton?  To me, this is possibly the most intriguing, yet potentially risky, one of all.  Right now, of course, Hillary leads all other Democratic contenders in just about every area - money, connections, name recognition.  The problem is, she is also perceived by many as a "liberal" and as a polarizing figure who can't win in the South.  Would an alliance with someone like Senator Jim "Born Fighting" Webb help Hillary Clinton overcome that?  Also, would a Hillary Clinton endorsement of Jim Webb sometime soon be a way of outflanking Mark Warner and playing on his home turf?  The Machiavellian gears are really churning at this point, but you never know in politics.

6) How about Russ Feingold, a maverick, straight-talking, Washington outsider whose most famous issue is getting big money out of politics?  And Jim Webb, a maverick, straight-talking, Washington outsider, who despises the pernicious influence of money in politics more than anyone?  This could be a very fruitful alliance, it seems to me, with each helping the other spread their reform message across the country.  In recent weeks, Webb has expressed his great admiration for Senator Feingold.  And Feingold obviously needs help playing in the South, which is somewhat alien territory for him.  Could Jim Webb help him in that?

7) Barack Obama most likely isn't running in 2008, but for future Presidential runs, it seems to me that an alliance with Jim Webb could be very useful, both to him and also to Jim Webb.  As you know, Jim Webb has talked repeatedly about moving beyond the decades-old divide between working class whites and African Americans.  In October 2004, Webb wrote:

In fact, the greatest realignment in modern politics would take place rather quickly if the right national leader found a way to bring the Scots-Irish and African Americans to the same table, and so to redefine a formula that has consciously set them apart for the past two centuries.

Could an Obama-Webb alliance help accomplish this goal, and in so doing, change America forever?  Even the possibility of this happening sends shivers of excitement up my spine. The bottom line is that I love even the thought of an alliance between Senator Obama and Senator Webb.

8) Colin Powell.  This one would be fascinating.  Remember that Powell was, not very long ago, the most respected politician in America.  Many people believe that the Presidency was Powell's for the asking in 2000. Today, however, after serving as Secretary of State in the Bush Administration, Powell's star has dimmed somewhat.  The question is, could an alliance wtih Jim Webb, who opposed the invasion of Iraq just as Powell did in 1991, and very much in line with the Powell Doctrine, be helpful to both men?  This one's highly intriguing.  We'll see what happens.

9) Before we conclude, let's not forget Al Gore.  Although Gore hasn't appeared interested in running for President in 2008, you never know.  Certainly, he's given some powerful speeches in recent months, including this past Martin Luther King Day in Washington DC, where he spoke powefully about the "constitutional crisis" we now face under George W. Bush and the right-wing theocratic Republicans.  For his part, Jim Webb has talked about reining in the unbridled power of the executive branch, and also about his belief that government should be limited when it comes to personal privacy matters.  Could this be a natural alliance that could help both men?

Oh yeah, before I forget, the big LOSER in any of these scenarios is none other than our current sibling-abusing, racially questionable, bored-out-of-his-mind, wished-he-had-been-born-in-Iowa, Southern California cowboy junior Senator, George Felix Allen.  Seems to me that a Jim Webb candidacy is already making Allen nervous, with Allen spies following Webb (but not Harris Miller) around the atate.  Imagine adding Mark Warner, John Edwards, and Barack Obama - among others - to Team Webb? 

Meanwhile, who's George Allen going to add to his team (aside from the usual GOP hatchet people like Scott "Black Hands" Howell)?  John Warner, who likes and admires Jim Webb greatly?  John McCain, who likes and admires Jim Webb greatly as well?  George W. Bush, whose popularity rating in Virginia was a lodestone on Jerry Kilgore last year, and is even worse in 2006?  Dick "Torture" Cheney?  Rick "Man on Dog" Santorum?  Jim "Drove Virginia into a Ditch" Gilmore?  Ollie "Convicted Felon" North?  Rudolph "Pro-Gay-Marriage and Pro-Choice" Giuliani?  Wow, great choices there, George. 

So, what do you think of my list?  Is it totally off base?  Did I leave anyone off who you think should be on?  Your thoughts, as always, are much appreciated.  Thanks.


Comments



The speculation game (Debby - 5/4/2006 8:26:42 AM)
Lowell,
I've posted on Josh's diary my thoughts on some of the early speculation and nix almost everyone.  Most of the Democratic 08 contenders are out--way too polarizing for Virginia (Clintons, Kerry).  Others are marginalized and would have limited national impact (Lieberman, Edwards) and Gore might bring money, but he's also seen as a Howard Dean tool of the left now.  Wouldn't bring crossover voters. 

Forget any of the current Democratic Senate or House leadership.  They can't endorse in a primary and besides, they provoke ill feelings from those on the other side, too. That includes Feingold. I don't know that we've ever seen sitting senators or congressmen endorse during a primary, so that might leave out Obama. 

Can't see John Warner jumping ship at this point, Wilder might be a possibility, but again, I don't see that on a headline-grabber national level.

So, it remains a mystery!  I don't know if Warner would endorse (Mark) at this point, so I won't speculate on that.  But I think I can safely say that in terms of 08 contenders, Wes Clark is not likely to be anyone's running mate!



The point of this diary was to ask the question the other way (Lowell - 5/4/2006 8:28:18 AM)
Who would be helped most by a) backing Jim Webb; and b) Senator Webb (D-VA)?


Everyone is helped (Debby - 5/4/2006 8:57:53 AM)
Any political figure would be helped by aligning himself with a strong winner! In that sense, Mark Warner may be helped less than others because Virginia is his to win with or without Webb.
Sorry for not paying closer attention and reading it wrong.


Must... remain... silent... (Josh - 5/4/2006 9:38:21 AM)
dying to spill.  *smacks own face*

ahh... better

Great insights, Lowell.  This really is fascinating on all sides.

One person you forgot, is Harris Miller.

Harris Miller never got in to this to become Senator, he got into this to become Lt. Governor in 2009.  When Webb beats George Allen, Democrats will praise Miller for offering strong opposition during the primary and helping Webb define himself.

Between now and June 13, Miller should fight on and fight fair.  After the primary, Harris Miller and all his supporters should do everything they can to get Webb in the Senate, because nothing does more for Miller's reputation and name recognition than a Webb victory.



Where did you get THIS from? (Lowell - 5/4/2006 10:46:00 AM)
Harris Miller never got in to this to become Senator, he got into this to become Lt. Governor in 2009.

Fascinating, but I strongly doubt that's the case.



2+2=4 (Josh - 5/4/2006 10:52:45 AM)
Isn't it obvious?


No. (Lowell - 5/4/2006 10:53:18 AM)


Well (Virginia Centrist - 5/4/2006 9:41:01 AM)
Other than Mark Warner, none of those other people will be helped by endorsing Jim Webb even one iota.

Outside of Virginia, no one really cares about this Senate race...



yet n/t ;) (Josh - 5/4/2006 9:57:52 AM)


Outside of Virginia (Debby - 5/4/2006 10:00:39 AM)
Virginia centrist remarked that outside of Virginia, no one cares about this race.  I have to strongly disagree!  I just read the Quigley article as it was posted on the SecuringAmerica.com blog. It was posted by a California woman, with comments from people all over the country.  Posters on this blog are thrilled that Webb is a strong candidate and is doing well and could take Allen out.  They post links for donations and encourage them.  They are following closely, as are many others who read the other national Dem blogs like Kos.  This is very much an important and national race cause everyone would like nothing better than to see Allen have his soft teeth knocked down his whiney throat (or whatever inane comment he made).

As for other candidates who could be helped, sure Warner will take Virginia if he runs.  He's the Favorite Son, and they are always expected to take their home state.  However, coming in second or even third in another candidate's state is important, too in the delegate race and for perception, so all the candidates are out working other states and supporting candidates running from all over the country. 



Info_Tech_Guy (Josh - 5/4/2006 10:06:55 AM)
Info_Tech_Guy is like from Ohio or something.  He's been a regular here and broke the story on the AFL-CIO denouncing Miller as an "anti-labor attack dog".

When we did the draft, we got comments from across the country, mostly from military folks for whom Webb isn't just a hero but a legend.

Moreover, if you look at the US Senate, there are 5 seats ready to flip into Dem control.  That's not a majority.  For a majority in the Senate, Dems need a 6th seat. 

6 monts ago, nobody thought Allen could be defeated.  He's too Popular, he's too southern, he's to much a virginian.  Jim Webb's candidacy has pointed out the faleshood of all of these beliefs.  If the Virginia race is suddenly in play, not only is Allen's seat in play, so's the Senate.

A Webb victory means a Dem takeover of the US Senate, and if that means accountability, I'm all for it.



Jim Webb makes this race significant (Info_Tech_Guy - 5/4/2006 12:40:21 PM)
Yes, Harris Miller has been the Washington insider "point-man" for offshore outsourcing and worker replacement. Union and non-union workers and organisations have followed Miller/ITAA activities for years. His ambitions alone are enought to inspired determined political opposition.

BUT this contest is about far more than opposing a pro-outsourcing enemy of American workers.

Jim Webb brings a level of honest and integrity to the table unique in ALL the U.S. His credentials are far more than merely impressive. This candidate has the capacity  to become a LEADER in our national democratic restoration.

I am absolutely INSPIRED by Jim Webb. His level of achievement, integrity, leadership, and thoughtful analysis is without peer in the U.S. Senate.

Jim Webb is the embodiment of popular democracy and the anti-thesis of the corrupt insider elitist politics exemplified by both Harris Miller and George Allen.



disagree o n 6 months ago (teacherken - 5/4/2006 2:39:44 PM)
before the election, sometime in early October or late September, I was at a fundraiser for Creigh Deeds at Don Beyer's house, where I was arguing that Allen was a weak candidate, and was one of several people trying to persuade Don to get into the race.  I will not again recapitulate all the info I used to make the argument, but I was far from the only one who thought Allen was a paper tiger.  That's why we were so anxious to find a strong candidate, because we knew he could be beaten.


I agree (Ingrid - 5/4/2006 10:14:46 AM)
with Debby that this race gets attention outside of Virginia.  Thousands of displaced IT workers and many IT organized groups throughout the country are monitoring this race.  Watch out for an audio file from a live (Internet and satellite) radio program yesterday, in which the guest, from Phoenix, AZ, blasted Jim Webb's opponent for his lobbying efforts against American farm workers in the 1980s and IT workers (and other workers) in the 1990s and 2000s.  Any endorsement by a national figure will help Jim.  It will boost his credibility even more.


Last primary (Virginia Centrist - 5/4/2006 10:22:32 AM)
Last primary, Virginia was irrelevant. The race was already over.

I'm afraid it will be irrelevant in 2008 as well.

Second of all, I don't really see any Presidential contenders that could help Webb:

1. Hillary? (NO!!!)
2. Feingold? (NO!!!)
3. Kerry? (NO!!!)
4. Edwards? Who cares...

The only presidential contender that helps webb and helps himself in any meaningful way is Warner.



Again, I disagree with you. (Lowell - 5/4/2006 10:51:16 AM)
Virginia will certainly NOT be irrelevant in 2008, with Mark Warner and George Allen fighting for their parties' respective Presidential nominations.  And, despite what you say, many people would find support from people like John Edwards to be meaningful.  Are you just in a particularly cynical mood today or what? :)


With all due respect, Paul... (Lowell - 5/4/2006 10:48:53 AM)
that's ridiculous.  Did you see the response that Jim Webb got on Daily Kos?  How about Bob Kerrey, when he "live blogged" for Webb on Daily Kos?  How about the interest by Wesley Clark?  How about all the national appearances by Webb, like the Colbert Report?  We could go on and on, but the bottom line is that there is a LOT of interest nationally in Jim Webb. None in Harris Miller, of course, but a great deal in Webb.  I believe there's also a great deal of interest in Virginia because of the chance that it could produce two Presidential contenders in 2008.  Lastly, if there's so little interest, then why was Tim Kaine chosen to deliver the SOTU rebuttal?


Everything points to Mark Warner at this point (JennyE - 5/4/2006 10:55:11 AM)
Warner is holding a fundraiser for Webb next week, May 11. With Josh saying the likely endorser will endorse next week, it most likely has to be Mark Warner. I'm thinking Warner informs Miller of his support for Webb, which no doubt forces Miller to drop out next week and endorse Webb.

The endorsement has to be immediately impactful in Virginia as Josh implies, so it has to be coming from Virginia, and not outside the state. A close second bet is Mayor Doug Wilder.



no comment (Josh - 5/4/2006 1:37:24 PM)
but I like your thinking.

;)



Webb Helps Warner (ChrisRK - 5/4/2006 5:15:02 PM)
I agree with VC.  This race will have no impact on the Presidential prospects of anyone except Warner.


Warner as Virginia Kingmaker (msnook - 5/4/2006 6:54:16 PM)
Warner has already gotten a lot of attention nationally for the perception that he installed Kaine as Governor. If he could work the same angle with Webb, this time with a national office, he'd have some serious mojo working in his favor.

For some reason, the success of presidential candidates seems to be tied really closely to their popularity in their home states. It shapes the media narrative before the race even gets going. If Warner is feared an respected on a national level for some inexplicable power over the electorate, his presidential prospects are seriously improved.