VA-GOV: Split the Difference [UPDATED]

By: Josh
Published On: 11/20/2008 9:15:15 AM

The 2009 Governor's Race is already heating up, and while McAuliffe and Moran battle it out, Creigh Deeds portends to split the difference and benefit immensely.  

The first shots were fired by the Moran camp as they released a collection of press clippings highlighting the icy reaction McAuliffe's overtures to candidacy raised in the Virginia political press.  Moran's moves are just the starting gun.  

McAuliffe uuber-spokesman Mo Elithee hit with the classic "curiously negative" attack:

"Brian Moran and his campaign have been spending a curiously large amount of time focused on someone who's not even a declared candidate for governor yet and their tone has been surprisingly negative..."

BANG!

In response Moran's Ferguson rolled out the "Why do you hate Obama" defense:

"This is the same thing they tried to use on Senator Obama," Ferguson said. "When the press raises questions about their qualifications, they try to blame the other candidate. We didn't compare Terry McAuliffe to Sarah Palin, columnists and opinion writers did."

ZING!

Meanwhile, as the two camps work each other over like prizefighters, Creigh Deeds is sitting back, clearly hoping to split the difference.  

Waldo:

Craig reports that Creigh Deeds "took a softer approach, welcoming McAuliffe into the race." Well, yeah.

McAuliffe is no threat to Deeds. But he's a disaster for Moran. McAuliffe and Moran will be fighting over the same primary votes, while Deeds can work on getting a plurality. Terry McAuliffe may be the best thing to happen for Creigh Deeds in a while.

So, the stage is set.  Terry and Brian are all set to get bloody, while Deeds takes the highroad to a plurality and the nomination.  Game on!

UPDATE:  It's worth noting that in 2005 Chap Peterson and Leslie Byrne were expected to cancel each other out, leaving the Lt. Gov nomination to Phil Puckett.  It didn't turn out that way.  NoVA stalwart Leslie Byrne became the nominee.


Comments



Go Creigh! (thegools - 11/20/2008 2:07:56 PM)


I'm worried (Dave N. - 11/20/2008 3:05:59 PM)
This is what I feared was going to happen with the gains that we're making; Dems with high aspirations fighting each other instead of the Repubs. I understand that no one is entitled to a higher office, but I hate that the infighting and insults have already begun, and wish we could just rally around one candidate.

I hoping that the primary will eventually be civil, and that everyone would acknowledge that any of those 3 would be better than McDonnell. With the mud-slinging already beginning and the GOP not having to go through a primary, it doesn't bode well for us for the Fall.

We need someone who can win a majority in the primary; Creigh may be the best (who knows yet?), but a plurality victory could be cannon fodder for the Repubs.



Who can win? Who's the best? (Arlington Dem - 11/20/2008 3:45:42 PM)
Well, I'm still trying to answer the questions who is the best candidate and who can best win?  Hopefully the answers to those questions are the same.  Is Moran too liberal, too northern?  Is McAuliffe too polarizing and inexperienced?  Can Deeds resonate more than he has in the past?  And how do they differ on issues.  I'm from Arlington, so I suppose I "should" be for Moran, but I'm not decided yet.  


Brian is a good man (Red Sox - 11/20/2008 6:27:53 PM)
and I think he would make a good governor. It's also important for those of us with "Moran fatigue" to separate Brian from his disgraceful brother. I'm a Deeds supporter, but this great state could do worse than Brian Moran (see Gilmore, James).


I used to think that primaries were to be avoided (thegools - 11/20/2008 6:15:59 PM)
lest they sew bad blood, but i have come around to see them as great tools for honing the final candidate, and helping him polish his message and fight off attacks.  

  One need look no further than the primaries this year, or to the primary that resulted in the Webb victory.  In both those cases the final candidates became much stronger because of the primary experience.

  Also, primaries get all of the skeletons out of the closet early, and the candidates learn how to deal with them.  This leaves GOP much less able to spring one of those surprises late in the election.  



If McAuliffe and Moran (Red Sox - 11/20/2008 6:26:08 PM)
fight each other to the point that Deeds wins the nomination, then we all win.


Terry who? This is a two man race: Deeds or Moran (snolan - 11/20/2008 7:55:21 PM)
And either of them will be an awesome governor.

This third guy might siphon off as many votes as Gail for rails Parker.



Amen (legacyofmarshall - 11/21/2008 10:03:03 AM)
Terry's closest to me geographically - he even goes to my Church - but for me I'm undecided between Brian and Creigh.  I'm sure Terry is a great guy, but when the office is Governor of Virginia, I trust the other two more - both to run a campaign and to govern well.

Though I would be tempted to see what would happen if we put Glenda "Gail for Rail" Parker in charge.



Considering the Macker just called our state Florida... (GMUDem - 11/20/2008 9:31:49 PM)
I think its a little early to call it for Creigh. Terry could change the race dramatically, or he could pull a Guliani and spend a lot of cash for little gain.  


McAuliffe probably has the lead among (stpickrell - 11/21/2008 12:30:22 PM)
upper-middle class information voters who're not tuning in but remember his name from the Clinton years and have no geographic reason to vote for Moran or Deeds as yet. When is the primary again, June?

Puckett was/is pro-life and that was probably a killer among many Dem primary voters in 2005. OTOH, he probably would've beaten Bolling in the election.

Has Leslie Byrne actually won a general election since 1992?

Finally -- I suspect a primary battle will go largely ignored unless someone goes nuclear (I suspect McAuliffe).

We must also consider the GOP crossover voters who might be 5-10% of the turnout in a odd-year primary (given the lack of a real race on the GOP side.)

Some crossover voters vote for the opposing party's worst candidate (I think they'll pick McAuliffe here so they can run against Clinton in the fall) while others vote for the candidate they think they can live with (Deeds probably gets the majority of these).

I suspect this might've been why Miller won most of downstate VA while Webb carried Northern VA in 2006. IMO, Miller would've lost by low double digits (although Macaca might've made it high single digits.)



Leslie Byrne won a state Senate general (Red Sox - 11/21/2008 1:30:42 PM)
in 1999 over then-Sen. Jane Woods (R) and independent Virginia Dobey, whose presence in the race helped Leslie win.

The biggest shame of this race is that as much as I like Leslie, had we nominated Chap to be our LG candidate, we probably have a primary race between Lt. Gov. Petersen and Attorney General Deeds. Same might be true if we had nominated Puckett. Wasted opportunity, and one that might cost us the governor's mansion in 2009.



Check your stuff (tvhost - 11/21/2008 1:24:58 PM)
I wonder when the fellow left the Warner Camp to go to the Mcauliffe camp if his bags were checked at the door? Seems the media, within a day or 2 after the election started getting emails from the camp. Wonder how they got media adddresses so quick?

I am sure the Republicans are sitting back soaking all this up, this with them only having one real candidate for Governor, and here we are with 3 (or can I say 2) and one just sitting back to watch to see what these 2 are going to do.

If I were a betting person, I money would be on Moran.